The NT News predicts who will win in Round 10 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
Another high-quality weekend of Top End footy is on the way with plenty of big-name players to take the field. We’ve analysed each match and predicted who will win in Round 10 and why.
Local sport
Don't miss out on the headlines from Local sport. Followed categories will be added to My News.
We’ve got another high-quality weekend of Top End footy ahead with big-name players and big match-ups to take the field in Round 10 of the NTFL.
The men’s action kicks off on Saturday with Tiwi Bombers going head-to-head with their foes St Mary’s at TIO Stadium.
Later on Palmerston and PINT both have a shot at redemption after their last match-up finished in a washed-out draw.
Other matches on Saturday include a heated battle between Wanderers and Southern Districts, and Buffaloes will be looking for a bounce-back win against top-of-the-table Waratah.
Tiwi Bombers vs St Mary’s
After a slow start to the season St Mary’s are back and could potentially make it five wins in a row.
They will more than fancy their chances against the Tiwi Bombers, who Saints demolished in Round 2.
And you could easily make the argument the St Mary’s side who will run out is very much improved from the side who beat the Bombers by 154 points.
Luke Oborn and Kieran Parnell have both enjoyed big years down back and though they’re missing Matthew Green in Round 10, do have Lucas Jellyman-Turner back in.
In the midfield, Nate Paredes, Dylan Landt and Josh Smithson are a handful for anyone, while the pace of Nick Yarran, Joseph Salmon and Jacob Long will trouble any side.
But most important to their transformation from their poor start to the season has been the addition of Brandyn Grenfell up forward alongside Jackson Calder.
Grenfell has offered a secondary scoring option Saints desperately lacked in the early rounds and it’s made them a more formidable force.
Saints will also be quietly pleased they get to play at TIO Stadium after the Bombers requested the match be moved from Wurrumiyanga Oval.
But Tiwi has still come to play, fielding one of their best possible teams with Harley Bennell and Nick Hooker in the side.
And in a twist, St Mary’s 200-gamer and multi-premiership winner Shannon Rioli will play against his former club for the Bombers.
Tiwi have been putting more competitive performances but they still have a way to go and considering the form of the reigning premiers it might be few bridges too far.
Our tip: St Mary’s by 52 points.
Wanderers vs Southern Districts
Wanderers return to the scene where their season was revived, Tracy Village Oval.
The Eagles got back on track against Tiwi Bombers in Round 8 off the back of what has become a bit of a pattern this year: a three-goal burst from the mercurial Steven Motlop.
The Muk Muks have had a quality return in recent weeks too in Braedon McLean and Marlon Motlop, although the latter appears to be missing in this game.
Big man Jobastin Priest, who has not been sighted since Round 5, will also bolster the Eagles’ ruck stocks, allowing Ed Simpson to play more up forward.
However, their talisman remains the former 217-game AFL forward in Motlop who leads the club in goals and uncontested possessions, second in total disposals, forward 50 marks, inside 50s and contested possessions, and third for clearances, marks and uncontested marks.
Curb Motlop and you go a long way to stopping the Eagles.
Two wins off the top five, the Eagles just need to keep winning if they are to taste finals action this year.
Last time these two teams met, it was Motlop’s three goals in a term that got the Eagles back into the match at Freds Pass before eventually going down by 11 points.
However, Crocs will be ruing their 4.15 effort last round despite winning the inside 50 count 50-33 against Palmerston.
Midfield bull Cam Ellis-Yolmen, SANFL star Kaine Stevens and former Hawk Dallas Willsmore, who was damaging in Round 2 with three goals in his only NTFL game this season, could also come back into the 22.
Districts will be looking to make a statement after a patchy fortnight.
Our tip: Southern Districts by 12 points.
Darwin Buffaloes vs Waratah
Darwin Buffaloes are in need of a bounce back win but up against top of the table Waratah they have a tough task ahead of them.
Last time these sides met Waratah ran away in the second quarter and never looked back claiming a 45-point victory.
It remains the largest loss the Double Blues have suffered this season and one they won’t be too eager to repeat.
To their credit, Buffs have been a consistent side this season and a lot of their strength has come from their tackle pressure.
Bradley Stokes and Hayden Brown are two of the best defenders in the competition and with Kevin Maroney alongside them they’re a tough backline to beat.
The pressure can also been seen a little further forward in the midfield with Nichols Medallist Dom Brew, captain Jarrod Stokes and former Carlton and Brisbane player Mitch Robinson.
But in Waratah they perhaps come up against the best defence in the league marshalled by vice-captain Dylan Collis.
Collis, Jake Bowd and Dan O’Dwyer are hard players to get past on any day and have laid the foundation for Waratah to sit top of the table.
Jayden Magro and Darcy Hope have enough nous to get the rest of the job done on the scoring end.
However, Tahs will be after a four-quarter effort with weaknesses flaring up late in their encounter against PINT.
It was similar to the third quarter fight back Tahs had to endure from Tiwi in Round 6 and Palmerston in Round 4.
So far they’ve managed to survive each time they’ve taken their foot off the pedal but eventually it will catch them out.
Our tip: Waratah by 10
PINT vs Palmerston
While finals action in its debut season looks unlikely, PINT have already built a reputation for their endeavor and hunt for the contest after eight games.
The Greenants’ biggest losing margin remains 29 points from their Round 1 encounter against Nightcliff.
Facing Palmerston at DXC Arena, they have played Marrara well in 2022-23: beating St Mary’s and Wanderers, and got within 13 against Waratah last round when all looked lost at half time.
It could very well become a fortress for the Greenants in coming seasons
Not known for racking up big scores – their average total per game is just 62 – the goals have been spread between five players, kicking between 13 and five majors in 2022-23, the latest stats show.
However, they face a Palmerston side who have stepped up to second place after disposing of then ladder leaders Southern Districts in Round 9.
The Pies boast one of the competition’s best goal kickers in Eddie Betts (20 from five games) and welcome back additional firepower in Travis Varcoe and Cam Pedersen for the clash at DXC.
Their challenge remains being without key ruckman Tristen Waack, who is missing for his third consecutive match and is rumoured to have been picked up by a state league club.
The Magpies lost the hit outs 41-8 last round and the clearances for the second consecutive week but still managed to hold off the Crocs by just under three goals.
The Pies will be tested in this area with Brock Carter second in the competition for hit outs.
Our tip: Palmerston by 18 points.
WHAT WE LEARNED FROM NTFL ROUND 9
We’re halfway through the NTFL season and after Round 9 the sides all know how they stack up against their opposition.
In the men’s competition it was Palmerston, St Mary’s, Waratah and Wanderers who came out on top.
And in the women’s Palmerston, St Mary’s, Nightcliff and PINT all secured victory.
Will Eddie Betts stay at Palmerston?
All eyes are now on Eddie Betts’ next move, and no more so than at rival NTFL clubs.
The AFL legend announced last week he was stepping away from a coaching role at Geelong, with many wondering where he might be heading next.
Especially fans at Cazalys Arena, with the Magpies stepping up to second on the ladder after beating a well-regarded, top of the table Southern Districts team by 17 points at Freds Pass.
If not for bad weather at TIO Stadium in Round 2 against PINT, the Pies could be equal first on the table with Waratah.
And with 20 goals from five games, Betts is one of the leading goal kickers in the competition and looms as an integral piece of a potential premiership assault.
The Pies now face PINT again at DXC Arena, a ground the Greenants have played well at this season, suffering only their first loss of the season there last round to Tahs.
After finishing second last in 2021-22, and some major personnel changes, the Pies are the league’s most improved side.
Player Ratings Palmerston vs Districts
3. Sam Clohesy (Palmerston)
2. Matthew Dennis (Districts)
1. Eddie Betts (Palmerston)
PINT women absolutely flying
Should we give the Queenants the premiership now? Or is a new challenger emerging?
It was meant to be the biggest battle of Women’s the Premier League at DXC Arena.
The undefeated teams of PINT and Waratah faced off, with both sides having utterly dominant seasons so far.
The Queenants, who won the 2020-21 premiership, have kept three teams scoreless this season, and Palmerston to just seven points, to build a more than healthy percentage of 821.25, and were coming off a 112-point hammering of Southern Districts in Round 8.
Waratah, on the other hand, have been almost as strong, keeping Wanderers and Tiwi Bombers to three and six points respectively.
The game at Marrara was square at quarter time, but the loss of Annabel Kievit, who has kicked 14 goals this season, and Lisa Roberts hurt Tahs’ chances, as PINT got home 11.6 (72) to 4.3 (27).
However, St Mary’s, who recruited Jemma Iacono and Tikesa Docherty-Cole from the Buffettes, are not to be discounted, and have won their past five in a row to now sit third on the table.
With PINT getting the better of the Saints earlier in the year by 107 points, their Round 12 rematch should provide an indication of how much St Mary’s have improved.
Player Ratings PINT vs Waratah women’s
3. Jahla Hunt (PINT)
2. Amy Chittick (PINT)
1. Rhiarna Myatt (PINT)
St Mary’s back from the brink
They may have started slow, but now with four wins in a row and a consistent side out on the field each week, St Mary’s are well and truly back in the fight for finals.
It’s a turnaround everyone was expecting from the reigning premiers, but there were points where some supporters may have been concerned about their side’s progress.
St Mary’s were humbled against Waratah in Round 1, but it was an abject loss against Wanderers which seemed to wake the Green Machine from its slumber.
Since then they’ve looked like a completely different outfit beating more in-form sides including Southern Districts, Nightcliff, Palmerston and now the Darwin Buffaloes.
Brandyn Grenfell has added a new dimension to the Saints attack, pairing well with Jackson Calder in the forwards to add to the goal scoring threat.
The secondary goal scorer is what Saints lacked early in the season as opposition defences built around shutting last season’s Dennis Dunn leading goal scorer Calder.
But with two talls ruling the roost up forward key clearances from Dylan Landt and Nate Paredes find their mark more often than not.
Saints just need to keep the momentum going, it’s an incredibly close competition and they could drop just as soon as they’ve risen.
Next up is Tiwi, and while Saints won this encounter by more than 150-points last time out they will still need to be at their best to stay on top.
Because from Round 11 onwards they’ll be back to facing in-form sides.
Player Ratings St Mary’s vs Darwin Buffaloes
3. Brandyn Grenfell (Saints)
2. Matthew Green (Saints)
1. Dylan Landt (Saints)
Ankers is massive for Waratah
Waratah had a big in of their own against PINT, who was integral to the Tahs getting home by 13 points following a second half revival from the Greenants.
Abe Ankers, playing in his just his second Men’s Premier League match for the season, kicked two crucial goals at DXC Arena, across the third and fourth quarters, just when it looked like last year’s grand finalists might be overwhelmed by a green and gold tidal wave.
He had an impact almost immediately against Shannon Motlop’s men and was part of many attacking forays from the visitors.
However, coach Ryan Ayres was unsure how many games he would get out of his Alice Springs-based champion, where he runs a local business.
Ankers, who played 11 games for Tahs last season, has been a footballing tourist of late, also playing with Federal in the Central Australian Football League, and with Wangaratta, in regional Victoria, in 2022.
Fingers crossed he will be running out at Gardens Oval come finals time.
Waratah will need all hands on deck with this year’s season proving to be a tightly-run race with just three wins separating first and seventh, and the reigning premier 4-0 over the past month and rediscovering its form.
Tahs have added some class this season through the likes of Scott Carlin (first for disposals and uncontested possessions at the club) and Darcy Hope (first for contested and forward 50 marks, third for goals) complementing a side tracking well to avenge last year’s grand final loss.
A competitive Darwin Buffaloes at TIO Stadium will be another good test for the ladder leaders.
Player Ratings PINT vs Waratah
3. Abe Ankers (Waratah)
2. Ed Morris (Waratah)
1. Matt Ryan (PINT)
What has happened to Nightcliff?
Is it bad luck? Are they off the boil? Are they lacking a bit of talent at this stage of the season? Or maybe it’s a sign of the level of competition we have this year.
Whatever it is Nightcliff losing one match has been a rarity in recent years, but to lose four in a row is something else.
To their credit none of their losses have been by more than 20 points, and in most they could probably point to bad kicking, particularly against St Mary’s.
However, bad kicking is the result of good backline pressure and with no consistent key forwards Tigers have been unable to get results in that area.
Interestingly, despite their recent slew of losses they are still technically the best defensive side in the comp conceding 443 points over eight games, the fewest of any side.
It is proof of how important Ryan Nyhuis is to making this side tick, he marshals the backline to give those in front plenty of chances.
Unfortunately, save for brief spurts those up forward have been unable to make the most of their chances.
Nightcliff have a much needed bye round next up which they can use to recalibrate and figure out just where they’ve gone wrong.
And then it’s over to Gardens Oval in Round 11 where Nightcliff face Waratah, the most recent side they’ve beaten.
Player Ratings Nightcliff vs Wanderers
3. Brodie Newman (Wanderers)
2. Chris Curran (Wanderers)
1. Ryan Nyhuis (Nightcliff)
Live stream: How to watch Waratah v Palmerston in Round 17
Waratah need to regain their pre-Christmas winning form in time for finals and their match against Palmerston is as good a time as any to start. Find out how to watch the match LIVE here.
Why Darwin’s 13th rugby round will have extra meaning
It’s set to be a massive weekend of Top End rugby union with Darwin hosting its suicide awareness round and the 10th Slugger Cup. Read all about it here.