The NT News predicts who will win in Round 7 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
There’s plenty to look out for in the NTFL Round 7, from big match-ups to some massive inclusions for each club. We’ve analysed each match and predicted who will win and why.
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Round 7 of the NTFL is here and it’s another massive one with a jam-packed Saturday to come.
The men’s action kicks off on Bathurst Island as Tiwi Bombers host a lively and in-form Southern Districts.
Another big match is in store at Nightcliff Oval with rivals Nightcliff and St Mary’s doing battle once more.
And the doubleheader at TIO Stadium will see PINT take on Darwin Buffaloes, before Waratah and Wanderers face-off.
WATCH ALL ROUND 7 STREAMS HERE
Tiwi Bombers vs Southern Districts
A few big questions should be answered on Bathurst Island.
Have the Bombers truly turned the corner, after two weeks of competitive football, and can the Crocs produce their best footy away from Freds Pass?
Districts have looked mighty impressive at home, collecting the scalps of Wanderers, Waratah and Nightcliff so far, but their form has been patchy on the road.
Meanwhile, the first four rounds were close to a nightmare for Brenton Toy’s men, with a pair of massive hammerings and a four-point loss to Darwin Buffaloes helped by the Buffs kicking 7.22.
However, on the back of elite ball users Sam Darley and Harley Bennell, and some Dion Munkara magic, Tiwi were too quick for PINT in Round 5, scoring their first win since February, 2020.
And they backed it up against Waratah at Gardens the following week, albeit in a loss, with only 39 points separating the two teams.
After being belted by 154 points by St Mary’s a few weeks prior at the same venue, it was a sign the Bombers’ trajectory was finally pointing upwards after 988 winless days in Men’s Premier League.
Tiwi will also be strengthened by the inclusion of former St Mary’s midfielder, Western Australia-based Ben Rioli for his first game with the club.
The 29-year-old played with South Fremantle during the 2022 season.
The Crocs could welcome back Cam Ellis-Yolmen but Port Adelaide discard Boyd Woodcock has not been named, after starring in two games from half forward.
Catching a ferry to Stanley Tipiloura Oval, Districts will have to face the NTFL’s toughest road trip in 2022-23.
But with a high number of strong contributors last round against Nightcliff, and Matt Dennis’ dominance in the ruck, they look like getting the edge in a close one.
Our tip: Southern Districts by 10 points
Darwin Buffaloes vs PINT
Darwin Buffaloes have added some key reinforcements to their squad in anticipation of a big battle against new side PINT.
There will be some at Buffaloes who consider Round 6’s 10-point loss to Palmerston as the match that got away.
But at the same time it was a match which proved Buffs are a side who can take it to anyone, and will be expecting nothing less than a finals berth.
There’s no shortage of big ins for the Double Blues this week with key recruits Liam Holt-Fitz and 2020-21 Nichols Medallist Dom Brew returning to the fold.
Sterling Mitchell, Tanner Colthard and Jarrod Stokes have bossed the midfield in recent rounds and are dangerous across the ground.
And then there’s former Carlton and Brisbane player Mitch Robinson who last round, with a 44 possession game, proved he’s still got that top level quality.
PINT, on the other hand, enjoyed success last round, beating a struggling Wanderers side at DXC Arena.
It was the Greenants’ second win of their first premier league season and one which proved they belong at the top level.
Against Buffs, they do face a tougher midfield battle, an area where Elliot Chalmers will need to step up, alongside co-captains Ben Smyth and Matt Ryan.
Jett Trotter will also find his time up front a little tougher, after kicking six goals against the Muk Muks.
PINT have still yet to win a match away from home turf, and that’s perhaps the final hurdle for the side.
A bolstered Buffaloes side full of confidence has to be favourites here, but PINT are not a side to count out in their first season.
Our tip: Buffaloes by 16 points
Nightcliff Tigers vs St Mary’s
Despite Nightcliff’s relatively ordinary performance in Round 6, this shapes as the match of the round as both teams look to reassert their total dominance of recent seasons.
There will be plenty on the line with both teams engaged in some big battles in recent seasons (last year’s preliminary final and the thrilling 2020-21 grand final).
The fourth-placed Tigers, who will welcome back forward line artillery in John Butcher and Sam Overall, plus Cameron Ilett and former Port Adelaide hard nut Hamish Hartlett for his Top End debut, suddenly look much stronger on paper than last week’s effort at Freds Pass.
The Tigers struggled to move the ball into its forward half at Norbuilt Oval, smashed by the Crocs for inside 50s (45-27) and were lucky not to be belted by more than the 19-point margin, with Districts kicking 3.12 over the second and third quarters.
It will be interesting to see what role Hartlett takes on, who has been battling a foot complaint, running has been limited and is playing just two games in the NTFL at this stage.
However, Hartlett has been in mint form as a player post-AFL, winning West Adelaide’s best and fairest in 2022.
Meanwhile, the NT News understands key defender Daniel Bowles, currently overseas, is still a week or so away.
St Mary’s, on the other hand, even though they sit seventh on the ladder, should pose Tigers’ biggest threat at home so far this season, with addition of Jay Boyle.
After beating third-placed Southern Districts in Round 5, the Saints are rested after a bye and welcome back one of their more influential players of 2021-22, albeit from a small sample size, Josh Smithson.
Curiously, one of the Saints’ premier midfielders Dylan Landt has been named as an emergency while Brodie Filo is also on the bench for Nightcliff.
Always difficult to beat at home, and with a restocked side and looking to atone for last week, Nightcliff will be a tough assignment.
Our tip: Nightcliff by 12 points
Wanderers vs Waratah
They may be on opposite ends of the table, but this match between old rivals Waratah and Wanderers still carries plenty of meaning.
For Waratah, it’s a chance to go back to the top of the table, with current league leaders Palmerston having the bye this weekend.
Tahs have started the season strongly, smashing the reigning premiers in the opening round and only conceding losses to Nightcliff and Southern Districts on their home tracks.
Dylan Collis, Dan O’Dwyer and Jake Bowd have played key roles in the backline of the season, and will pose a real threat to a Wanderers side who have struggled to score.
They’ve also got their explosive mid-forwards who love to contest for the footy, including Jayden Magro and Thomas Cree.
Neither of those two are slackers in front of goal either and will be constant threats.
Either way, this is a Waratah side who have clicked early in the NTFL season, but there are still chinks in their armour which Tiwi exposed in a hearty display in Round 6.
For Wanderers, they need to get results on the board soon or their season and their chances of making finals will become much harder.
Sure, they have the talent across the park from strong forwards to a dynamic backline, but for all of that their 1-4 record speaks for itself.
The Muk Muks will be analysing Waratah’s two losses, to Nightcliff and Districts, to find out how to get the better of Tahs’ defenders.
If Eagles manage that, Steven Motlop, the shining light in front of goal, will have his chance to put his side in the mix.
It’s in front of goal where the Muk Muks have struggled most, scoring less than six goals in their past three matches.
Elsewhere, matters are fine with Brodie Newman and Mitchel Taylor heading the defence, while Dane McFarlane always looks dangerous in the midfield.
But if the forwards can’t reward the efforts with goals then, as they did against PINT, the Muk Muks will fall apart.
A massive turnaround is needed for Wanderers to win here; it’s one they’re capable of achieving, but they need to prove they can before we tip their way.
Our tip: Waratah by 28
ROUND 6 LESSONS LEARNED
Home ground advantage has proven all-important following an exciting Round 6 of the 2022-23 NTFL season.
In the men’s competition Districts, Palmerston, Waratah and PINT triumphed over their rivals.
While in the women’s comp it was the heavyweights Nightcliff, Buffettes, Waratah and PINT who came out on top.
PREMIERSHIP CONTENDERS ARE ANYONE’S GUESS
Any tips about NTFL premiership contenders this early in the season are premature.
Nightcliff appeared to be emerging as one of the form teams of the competition so far with an important win over Waratah, only to turn in arguably their worst performance of the season against Southern Districts the following weekend.
If the Crocs had their kicking boots on, they win by 10 goals at Freds Pass.
Although it must be noted the Tigers were without heavy artillery: Cam Ilett, Trent Melville, Daniel Bowles and Sam Overall.
Equally, Waratah started the season in emphatic fashion, flogging last year’s premiers, only to then drop games to Districts and Nightcliff.
Palmerston appears to be the only team showing true consistency.
If not for a major storm hitting TIO Stadium in Round 2, they would be 5-1.
Perhaps a slow first half against Waratah in Round 4 was the only thing that has cost them a spotless record in 2022-23, after kicking 6.5 to 2.5 in the second half to leave their run a tad too late at Gardens Oval.
With Darwin such a transient place, and teams often making bulk changes on any given week, it would take a brave pundit to start making premiership predictions this early in the season.
And on the subject of Nightcliff, is there any chance of changing the colour of the numbers on the back of their jumpers?
White simply doesn’t go with bright yellow and it makes it close to impossible to identify players from a distance.
Player Ratings Districts vs Nightcliff
3. Matt Dennis (Districts)
2. Boyd Woodcock (Districts)
1. Jake McQueen (Districts)
FRONTRUNNERS IN WOMEN’S COMP
Unlike the men, it’s a touch easier predicting finalists, and winners, in the Women’s Premier League, which is looking very lopsided at the moment.
With Waratah and PINT yet to drop a match, and defending champions Darwin Buffaloes just the one, it appears to be those three teams and the rest in season 2022-23.
Cellar dwellers Wanderers have yet to record a win and have been kept scoreless in two games so far this season.
The Queenants have a ridiculous percentage of 1155 per cent with an average winning margin of 90 points since Round 2, and still have former Adelaide Crow premiership player Jasmyn Hewett to return later in the season.
Apart from a close contest against Nightcliff, Tahs also have an average winning margin of 80 points.
Those three top clubs also boast seven of the league’s top 10 goal kickers, with league leader Waratah’s Jenna Singh leading the back with 18 majors from four games.
In fact, four of the top five goal kickers are either from Tah or Queenant forwards.
It’s a big change from last year with sixth-placed Southern Districts winning seven games.
Even Nightcliff, without regular contributions from its inspirational ex-captain Eliza Morrison in 2022-23, who dropped just one game during the home and away season last year, have scrounged just two wins so far from five starts thus far.
League observers believe it's a mix of rebuilding teams while others have topped up with interstate recruits.
Player Ratings Darwin Buffettes vs Palmerston Women
3. Molly Althouse (Buffettes)
2. Elisa Niki (Buffettes)
1. Crystal Browne (Buffettes)
PALMERSTON GRIND-OUT KINGS
Earlier this season Palmerston struggled with their starts, seemingly out of the contest early against PINT, Nightcliff and Waratah.
All three times we saw the Magpies grind their way back into the contest, only falling short the once against Waratah in Round 4.
Since that match, Palmerston have enjoyed better starts, and just like that, they’re top of the table with a bye to look forward to in Round 7.
To be honest, not a lot changed, from personnel point of view, between the Palmerston vs Waratah contest, and the Pies outfit who won a tight 10-point game against Buffaloes.
But the attitude is there from the start now, the players know to give themselves the best chance of a win they need they need to play all four quarters.
And once they’re in the contest, they’re probably the best team at grinding out a game at the moment, with their midfield hard at the contest all game.
Eric Guthrie, Sam Clohesy, Baxter Mensch and Tristen Waack all bring work rate to the midfield, and they’re a quartet any side will struggle to outlast.
Ashton Hams and Neville Jetta marshalling the backline has also elevated Palmerston to the next level.
In the absence of Eddie Betts, it was Travis Varcoe’s turn to be the shining light in front of goal, and the former Geelong and Collingwood man more than delivered.
But he wasn’t alone with multiple Dennis Dunn leading goal kicker Will Farrer also a force in front of goal.
Palmerston now have a break week, but they will have plenty of confidence heading into the Gary Ablett blockbuster against St Mary’s.
They play the four quarters each match and there’s a big year ahead for the Maggies.
Player Ratings Palmerston vs Buffaloes
3. Travis Varcoe (Palmerston)
2. Jarrod Stokes (Buffaloes)
1. Eric Guthrie (Palmerston)
HOME GROUND ADVANTAGE
There’s always been a thing called home crowd advantage but that rule has been followed to the letter in 2022-23.
No team has lost at their true home ground in Men’s Premier League after six rounds.
The Tiwi Bombers have dropped “home games” to St Mary’s and Waratah at Gardens Oval, and Buffaloes at TIO, while St Mary’s lost a round five fixture to Wanderers at TIO.
However, no team has lost a game on their home deck.
Southern Districts is an interesting case study in that it has looked largely unbeatable at Freds Pass, apart from the third term against Wanderers when Steven Motlop went on a rampage.
Yet away from home, the Crocs were trailing sixth-placed Buffaloes by 26 points before the game was called off due to a Nick Weightman injury.
And they also lost to St Mary’s despite a superior inside 50 count.
While it might be difficult to pick a winner at the moment the best rule of thumb is: go with the home team.
And while we’re at after just six rounds we have a “circle of parity”: Tiwi beat PINT, who beat Wanderers, who beat St Mary’s, who beat Districts, who beat Nightcliff, who beat Waratah, who beat Palmerston, who beat Buffaloes, who in turn beat Tiwi.
Player Ratings Tiwi Bombers vs Waratah
3. Dylan Collis (Waratah)
2. Brodie Carroll (Waratah)
1. Will Clark (Waratah)
PINT ARE HERE TO STAY
Adding a new team to a league is always going to come with a few questions.
One being the most obvious: how will the new team stack up against the rest of the competition?
In the case of PINT, it’s probably more than safe to say they belong in the Premier League following their second win of the season.
This is a team with a real hunger, not just to win games, but also to prove to everyone they’re good enough for the top.
Against Wanderers, they won their second game of the season, having previously beaten their close neighbours and reigning premiers St Mary’s in Round 3.
Add in a draw to current top side Palmerston and its little wonder why the Greenants sitting pretty in fifth after six rounds.
They can be forgiven to a large degree in their loss to the Tiwi Bombers: it was their first journey to the islands, they travelled by ferry and the home side fielded their best team of the year.
There will be tough matches ahead, with two of the current top four still to play, but the signs are good for Shannon Motlop’s men.
Jett Trotter kicked six in a best on ground performance against the Muk Muks, while former Gold Coast Sun Jacob Dawson also showed his flair in his debut.
And anyone heading to DXC Arena should expect a tough battle, the venue is a Greenants fortress and those PINT supporters came out in force.
Player Ratings PINT vs Wanderers
3. Jett Trotter (PINT)
2. Kyle Winte-Irving (PINT)
1. Jacob Dawson (PINT)
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