The NT News predicts who will win in Round 6 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
We’re into Round 6 of the NTFL with big inclusions bolstering clubs across the board. We’ve looked at each match and predicted who will win and why.
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We’re into Round 6 of the NTFL and it’s another jam-packed round with squads starting to take shape.
The men’s action kicks off with what could very well be the match of the round between Southern Districts and Nightcliff Tigers at Norbuilt Oval.
Then we head to TIO Stadium for a match between Palmerston Magpies and Darwin Buffaloes which will have no shortage of AFL players.
In other games, we have PINT hosting their second match of the season a battling Wanderers at DXC Arena, and Tiwi Bombers and Waratah will later face-off at Gardens Oval.
WATCH ALL ROUND 6 STREAMS HERE
Southern Districts vs Nightcliff Tigers
One of the games of the round with Crocs back on home turf at Freds Pass – where they haven’t lost yet in 2022-23 from two starts – and Nightcliff fresh from claiming its biggest scalp of the season, Waratah, by 34 points.
Districts have lost a bit of their sheen in recent rounds, 26 points behind Darwin Buffaloes in Round 4 before the game was called off due to an injury to Nicholas Weightman, then losing to the reigning premiers last round by 31 points.
The Crocs actually won the inside 50 count against St Mary’s last Saturday, but couldn’t find a match-winning option, with just two majors between Luke Smith, Matt Shannon and Roy George, who have been the club’s top three goal scorers in Men’s Premier League.
Key midfielder Cam Ellis-Yolmen also appears to be missing for the Norbuilt Oval clash.
However, Port Adelaide discard and goal sneak Boyd Woodcock will be better for the run after his NTFL debut last weekend, picking up 25 touches and five inside 50s.
Nightcliff, on the other hand, are in solid early season form, smashing an undermanned Tiwi Bombers and then Tahs in recent weeks.
The old guard of Brodie Filo and Shaun Wilson come into the game in mint form, too, picking up 71 disposals and four goals, and 51 and two majors respectively over the past two rounds.
John Butcher also returned for his first game of the season against Tahs, bagging seven majors.
And with Tom North, who was one of the Tigers’ best last season and played for Carlton’s VFL team in 2022, also back, Nightcliff might only be getting better at this stage of the season.
Our tip: Districts by six points
Palmerston Magpies v Darwin Buffaloes
Palmerston sit top of the Men’s Premier League table and are well poised to stay there, but have a tough task ahead with a well-rested Buffaloes in their road.
Magpies are one of many sides this season who have only managed their best footy when playing at home, recording wins against both Nightcliff and Wanderers.
Prior to the Wanderers match, the Magpies also struggled with slow starts.
However, against the Muk Muks, that seemed to change.
Palmerston are a side who love to fight for the ball, putting on the pressure at every contest.
And for that reason it’s little wonder that they have plenty of players who rank high in possessions with Baxter Mensch a clear front runner in that stat with 163 touches from five games.
But it’s not just the former VFL player who has had his taste of the action, with Sam Clohesy (118 possessions) and Eric Guthrie (83) also leather hungry.
A lot of the Magpies’ success has come down to their strength down back, too, with former AFL players Neville Jetta and Ashton Hams in fine form.
However, Buffaloes have some big guns of their own with ex-AFL star Mitch Robinson poised to play his first full game of NTFL footy, following the early cancellation of the Round 4 match against Districts.
In other big news for Double Blues fans, Centralian and former North Melbourne player Matt Campbell will also return to the fold and should sharpen their kicking woes after registering 7.22 against Tiwi in Round 3.
These are two big inclusions for a Buffaloes side who were already enjoying a fine start to their 2022-23.
Buffaloes were a force to be reckoned with in the half that was played against Southern Districts, and ran Wanderers over in the final quarter in Round 1.
Our tip: Palmerston by 10 points
Waratah v Tiwi Bombers
The Bombers will hit Gardens Oval against Tahs on Saturday afternoon with new found belief after a disastrous start to the season.
And it will look to bury the demons of a 154-point hiding to St Mary’s in Round 2 at the same ground.
The Islanders finally found their mojo last Saturday against PINT at Stanley Tipiloura Oval, with the likes of Dion Munkara, Brendan Kantilla and Tristan Singh-Lippo running amok as the Bombers won their first game in Men’s Premier League after 988 days.
However, they should get a dose of reality coming up against a Waratah team smarting from a 34-point loss to Nightcliff after a stellar few opening rounds.
The Tahs will need to limit the influence of playmakers Sam Darley and Harley Bennell and a Tiwi outfit which has begun to take marks inside its forward 50, and win plenty of the ball, after being utterly smashed in those statistics until Round 5.
St Mary’s champion Shannon Rioli will also be making his Tiwi Bombers debut.
Waratah will also be bolstered by the news key defender Daniel O’Dwyer is free to play after having a charge of bumping Brodie Filo, while he had his head over the ball, downgraded to rough conduct.
Time will tell if the Bombers will be opened up again after a number of big losses already this season, with an average losing margin of 78 points until their Round 5 renaissance.
Our tip: Waratah by 30 points
PINT v Wanderers
Wanderers and PINT both have something to prove in the first NTFL face-off between coaching cousins Aaron and Shannon Motlop.
The Greenants have applied themselves well in the opening rounds of the 2022-23 competition and have been in the contest each game.
They will also draw plenty of confidence from returning to their home ground of DXC Arena, where they managed their first ever Men’s Premier League win against St Mary’s.
But a loss to the Tiwi Bombers at Wurrumiyanga Oval in Round 5 will have taught the Greenants some valuable lessons.
They’re a side with no shortage of talent with both captains Matt Ryan and Ben Smyth making sure their side proves it belongs at this level.
Elliot Chalmers (65 disposals) and Brayden Taylor (72 possessions) have been PINT’s most consistent in the early rounds.
And they will be further bolstered by the inclusion of forward Christopher Nield, the goal kicker who went down injured in Round 2 against Palmerston.
And while the pressure isn’t so much on the league’s newest side, it will probably be starting to mount on Wanderers.
For all their talent, the Eagles have lacked results, save for one win over the reigning premiers.
And it doesn’t get much easier for the Muk Muks from here with Nightcliff and Waratah still to play in the first half of the season.
A win here will be crucial and that comes down to their forward line firing, including Steven Motlop and Ed Simpson.
Defenders Brodie Newman and Mitchel Taylor can more than handle the defensive end, marshalling their backline, but without enough goals a solid defence can only get you so far.
But it’s the return of Dane McFarlane to the side which will have the most impact on the Eagles performance.
He was dynamic against both Southern Districts and St Mary’s, and was key in getting the ball towards the forward line.
Our tip: Wanderers by 10 points.
ROUND 5 LESSONS LEARNED
We’re five rounds into the 2022-23 NTFL competition and the league has rarely ever been tighter.
In the men’s competition Palmerston, Tiwi, Nightcliff and St Mary’s came out on top.
And in the women’s competition it was Palmerston, PINT, Waratah and St Mary’s who proved the better sides on the day.
Kicking woes curse Muk Muks
A forward line of Ed Simpson, Darren Shillabeer and Steven Motlop is nothing to sniff at.
In fact it’s among the best in the league.
And yet for all that firepower, Wanderers have yet to fire in front of goal outside of some elite cameos from the former AFL player Motlop.
The Muk Muks scraped out a three-point win against St Mary’s in Round 4, a match they had no business almost losing.
Against Palmerston in Round 5 they came to properly rue missed opportunities in front of goal when their big boots couldn’t score.
Ultimately, even on the scoreboard there wasn’t much separating the Magpies and the Eagles in the battle of the birds.
But you can’t blame just those in front of goal for the Eagles lack of scoring, as Palmerston’s pressure game disrupted plenty of clean ball.
It’s an area the Muk Muks desperately need to clean up against their next opposition PINT as a win is probably needed to stay in finals contention, without matters becoming too difficult.
But once those three upfront start firing, everything will start to fall into place for the Muk Muks.
Player Ratings Wanderers vs Palmerston
3. Ashton Hams (Palmerston)
2. Sam Clohesy (Palmerston)
1. Baxter Mensch (Palmerston)
Tiwi women play on the island for the first time
After 10 months starved of NTFL football, fans on Bathurst Island showed why they’re the most vocal and passionate in the league.
Men’s Premier League footy has not been played at Wurrumiyanga since December, due to Covid restrictions.
However, the drought was finally over when PINT’s men’s and women’s teams ventured over, by ferry, for Round 5 action.
With a couple of female players getting their ankles strapped on the boat over, it showed why this was the NTFL’s most challenging trip.
And from the opening bounce of the Tiwi Bombers women’s team’s first match on home soil at Stanley Tipiloura Oval, hundreds of locals were hooting, howling and hollering every possession.
A few moments stood out on Saturday for fan fervour: when the Bombers slotted two early majors in the women’s game as Natasha and Marietta Puautjimi got into the thick of things.
Then, deep in the final quarter of the men’s game, debutant and former AFL star Majak Daw marked strongly and kicked his second for the day; the icing on the cake for a 15-point win over the Greenants.
As many have said over the years, a football match at Wurrumiyanga remains a pure cultural experience, made all the more special by a totally-invested crowd.
Player Ratings Tiwi vs PINT women’s
3. Reni Hicks (PINT)
2. Stephanie Lawrence (PINT)
1. Marietta Puautjimi (Tiwi)
Tiwi taste victory once more
It all seemed elementary with hindsight.
Welcoming back some quality in former AFL player Sam Darley, Dion Munkara and emerging speedster Tristan Singh Lippo, all from suspension and a vocal hometown crowd thirsty for live footy after a 10 month break, it was always going to be difficult for the Greenants.
Only history – the Bombers hadn’t won since February 2020 – seemed to be against the red and blacks.
Arriving at the ground by a two and a half-hour ferry ride, then a near-kilometre walk to Stanley Tipiloura Oval, PINT were confronted with the league’s most challenging preparations.
And the Bombers were on from the get go, only a series of posters keeping Tiwi from leading at quarter time.
But it was in a stunning second term – kicking 4.4 to 1.3 - where the Bombers really started to crank up their high octane game, as Munkara, Singh-Lippo and Brendan Kantilla emerged as match winners.
Their game was also elevated by the proficient ball use of Darley (six rebounds from defensive 50), Nicholas Hooker and Harley Bennell (14 ground ball gets) from the back half.
While Bennell’s kicks went at 86 per cent efficiency, Hooker’s lethal left foot went at an incredible 93 per cent.
The Bombers, suddenly, appear to be back in town.
Player Ratings Tiwi vs PINT
3. Sam Darley (Tiwi)
2. Harley Bennell (Tiwi)
1. Dion Munkara (Tiwi)
Competition closer than ever before
Footy is a funny old game and this year’s NTFL season has certainly raised an eyebrow or two, making it a nightmare at times for tipsters.
There has been an upset most rounds, from Waratah belting St Mary’s by 101 points in the opening round to a PINT and Palmerton storm-enforced draw.
Then Tahs were not in the contest against Crocs and Tigers.
It’s been hard to get a read on some teams, especially the reigning premier, who belted the living suitcase out of Tiwi Bombers before going down to PINT the following week.
Then, on Saturday, the Bombers turned it on their home deck, running the legs off the Greenants to win by 15 points, showing fastball use can be difficult to stop.
At the same time, the Saints, admittedly welcoming back some premiership players in Lucas Jellyman-Turner, Brandyn Grenfell and Nigel Lockyer Jr, downed the form team of the competition, Southern Districts, despite the inclusion of 12-game AFL forward Boyd Woodcock.
One thing is for sure, it’s way too early in the season to be making big predictions about who will make the top five.
Player Ratings Nightcliff vs Waratah
3. Ryan Hyhuis (Nightcliff)
2. John Butcher (Nightcliff)
1. Harry Butler (Nightcliff)
Recruits help Saints bounce back
St Mary’s bounced back out of the danger zone with a fine win against Southern Districts in Round 5.
And it was exactly what they needed to save their season, after some disappointing weeks including losses to PINT, Wanderers and Waratah.
Key to that revival was the inclusion of some big players including Nigel Lockyer, Brandyn Grenfell and Lucas Jellyman-Turner.
Sam Fowler and Dylan Landt were also dynamic out of the midfield, while Luke Oborn made a real impression needing to come in at ruck.
All of those additions caught the Crocs off-guard and with multiple players to lock down they left last season’s leading goal scorer Jackson Calder wide open.
It was the exact response Saints needed, not only after going two goals down against Crocs, but also after conceding three of their opening four games.
And it’s also exactly how the reigning premiers need to play each week coming out of their bye round.
It’s a close competition this season and any loss is some ground conceded to someone else.
But with a bolstered squad, much like the one they enjoyed in Round 5, they can start to mix it with other sides.
Player Ratings St Mary’s vs Districts
3. Sam Fowler (St Mary’s)
2. Luke Oborn (St Mary’s)
1. Dylan Landt (St Mary’s)
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