NTFL 2022-23: Every NTFL premier league footballer ranked
Southern Districts’ Matt Dennis has been the standout ruck all season, but there’s one club which has tested him more than others. See all the stats for the 2022-23 NTFL season.
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He’s the competition’s unbeatable ruckman but which premiership contender has the best chance of curbing Matt Dennis?
Coming off a total smashing of Darwin Buffaloes in Round 18, 56-13, with Dennis having 50 of those, Southern Districts have not lost the hit out count with the Victorian in the team in season 2022-23.
The Crocs lost the taps both times Dennis was missing in action, against Wanderers and PINT, early in the season.
From 13 games, Dennis has collected a season-high 419 hit outs, well clear of his nearest rival in Greenants big man Brock Carter (360) and Waratah’s Arnold Kirby (302).
And Dennis has scored some big wins against the top sides in Men’s Premier League, winning the count 47-25 against Waratah (which included Kirby) in Round 12 and St Mary’s 37-13 the previous game, with Ryan Smith tallying just six.
He also got the edge 37-11 in Round 5 against the Saints, despite his team going down by 21 points.
However, it not just in the air where Dennis dominates, but his ability to shark the ball and drive it forward, rating second for the Crocs for clearances, only bettered by best and fairest winner Luke Smith.
Dennis also ranks 11th for clearances for the entire competition, rating better than Harley Bennell, Beau O’Connell, Tom Schott, Mitch Robinson and Brodie Carroll, ranked 12-16.
Kirby is the next closest main ruckman in 25th place.
However, of the top five teams, Dennis has faced his toughest tests against Nightcliff, whose season-defining, 31-point win over Districts was a key part of a seven-game winning streak.
Tigers coach Chris Baksh praised the work of Jackson Bowen for curbing Dennis’ influence, with his 25 hit outs well down on his season average of 32 per game.
He also had 18 hit outs against the Tigers in Round 6, his lowest total for the season.
In fact, the Tigers have plenty of options when it comes to the ruck, with Harry Butler (fourth) Bowen (sixth) and Aidan Robinson (eighth) in the top 10 for hit outs in the home and away season.
If Nightcliff can go deep in the finals and face the Crocs, it’s one area of their game that won’t cause as many headaches as other contenders.
The numbers behind the Tigers’ six successive wins
Footy is a simple game often overcomplicated, but at least the latest Men’s Premier League statistics reveal one clear and easy argument for Nightcliff’s mid-season revival.
The Tigers had a horror mid-season, going six weeks without a win before turning the ship around completely from Round 12, winning the next six matches.
And the numbers show Nightcliff has got their hands on the ball more, put the pill inside forward 50 more often and are using the leather far more efficiently over the past six games, compared to the previous six which yielded a 1-5 win-loss record.
While it’s been mentioned plenty of times before that last year’s preliminary finalists lack the firepower of previous campaigns (Kyle Emery and Liam Holt-Fitz departing, Trent Melville suffering a season-ending concussion) Nightcliff’s defence has clearly tightened over the past six games, dropping by 20 per cent from 61 to 49 in terms of average score against.
And just a seven per cent increase in average score over that same period may underline a more defensive game plan from the Tigers after a Round 11 loss to Waratah.
The Tigers have lost the disposal count just once over the past six games – in Round 17 against PINT – their kicking efficiency has jumped two percentage points to a competition-leading 69 per cent and are producing less clangers.
Nightcliff’s best by foot is defender Nathan Brown, going at 84 per cent, third in the entire competition for players who have played 10 games or more, while fellow backman Ryan Nyhuis is fifth at 83 per cent.
Curiously though, despite Nightcliff winning the last six, it produced more intercept marks over that 1-5 period compared to their winning run.
Nightcliff comes close to equalling season record for marks
The resurgent Nightcliff came close to equalling an impressive Men’s Premier League record this season in a 70-point flogging of Darwin Buffaloes in Round 16.
With John Butcher and Sam Overall clunking everything in sight, the Tigers pulled down nine marks inside their 50m arc during the second quarter at Nightcliff Oval, to record its fifth win on the trot.
It was the second highest number of marks inside 50 in a quarter after Southern Districts clunked 11, also in the second term, against the Tiwi Bombers the previous round at TIO Stadium.
It also equalled two tallies of nine the Buffs recorded against Tiwi in Round 12, in the second and fourth quarters.
However, Nightcliff’s effort was all the more impressive considering the quarter was mostly played in driving rain, as Butcher and Overall produced 12 inside 50 marks and 13 goals between them for the game, assisted by some magnificent delivery.
That stat also reveals the struggles the Bombers have had in defence in 2022-23.
St Mary’s pulled down the highest number of forward line grabs in a game with 27 against the Bombers, as Jackson Calder produced 11.
The Crocs also reeled in 26 in just two and a bit quarters (Sam Dunstan had eight to go with his seven goals) against Tiwi before the game was called off due to wild weather, followed by Buffs (24 against Palmerston in Round 14) and Wanderers (23 v Tiwi in Round 16).
Steven Motlop had nine for the game to go with his 12 goals.
In fact, of the 19 times a team has pouched seven inside 50 marks or more in a quarter, 13 were against the Bombers.
Tiwi also had the lowest amount of inside 50 marks with one against Nightcliff in Round 4.
PINT’s multifaceted forward line
Finals contender PINT boasts arguably the most even spread of goalkickers in Men’s Premier League this season.
With a competition-high seven players in double digits for goals in 2022-23, the Greenants are not relying on just one or two key forwards to kick the majority of their score, as they target a finals berth in season one of MPL.
Conversely, second-placed Waratah get exactly 50 per cent of its goals from three players: Jayden Magro, Darcy Hope and Tom Banuelos.
At Southern Districts, Sam Dunstan, Luke Smith and Matt Shannon make up 40 per cent of its total goals.
However, down at Marrara, that seven – Jett Trotter, Silver Yousif, Matt Ryan, Alex Harvey, Kyle Winter-Irving, Andrew Ciavarella and Chris Nield – can be relied upon to play in other positions.
In fact it was Ryan’s forward line heroics which helped land an important win over Darwin Buffaloes in Round 15, arguably their finest of the season so far.
PINT in-and-under specialist Brayden Taylor confirmed that coach Shannon Motlop was not afraid to throw the magnets around at Marrara, with the former AFL player likening the match to a game of chess.
“I think we have a very versatile team,” Taylor said.
“Anybody can play any position ... it’s an awesome attribute.
“We don’t really have anyone who can play just one position.
“Sometimes you see some of our full backs kicking two or three.”
At TIO Stadium against the Buffs, Motlop threw captain Ryan forward where he slotted three crucial majors to answer a Double Blue barrage and eventually win by 18 points, keeping their finals aspirations aflame.
“Recently he’s been playing most of his time on the wing,” Taylor said of the skipper.
“He was super dangerous up the ground.
“Shannon decided to throw him forward ... those three goals came pretty quick so it was pretty awesome to see.”
It comes despite the Greenants being seventh for total points and goals in 2022-23.
Reigning premiers St Mary’s is second for double digit goalkickers: Jackson Calder, Dylan Landt, Brandyn Grenfell, Nate Paredes, Joseph Salmon and Nick Yarran.
Unsurprisingly, Wanderers, who have kicked the least amount of points and goals this season, has just one double digit goal kicker: Steven Motlop.
Southern Districts the worst kicking team in Men’s Premier League
Footy is a game of inches and also percentage points.
Nightcliff’s big win over ladder leaders Southern Districts in Round 14 appeared to be a victory for unrelenting pressure and thirst for the contest, as the Tigers came to play in an all-important fixture in terms of their finals aspirations.
Nightcliff out tackled the Crocs (43-37) and ensured all of their possessions (Districts are second in the league for total disposals) were earned under constant adversity, with the likes of Luke Smith (18 possessions), Jack Mentha (13), Matt Dennis (11) and Matt Shannon (10) down on their usual output.
Crocs simply put in arguably their dirtiest day for the 2022-23 season at Nightcliff Oval, as they struggled to hit targets and could not find a marking option up forward in tricky conditions (six forward 50 marks to Nighctliff’s 10).
In fact, Districts’ wayward disposal underlined an unenviable stat about the Crocs in 22-23: they rank dead last for kicking efficiency in Men’s Premier League at 65 per cent.
It might be why Crocs favour handballing over kicking, leading the competition for total handballs.
And they have seen their kicking efficiency drop further to 58 per cent in a loss to Palmerston in Round 9 and when they were trailing Buffaloes in Round 4 before the match was abandoned.
It was also below their season average in a 21-point loss to St Mary’s in Round 5 and in the recent game against Nightcliff.
Only four teams have kicked below 58 per cent in a match this season: St Mary’s twice when they were seriously battling, and Nightcliff and PINT in the wet in Round 1.
However, it has tracked at a season-high of 75 per cent in a win victory over Wanderers in the opening round, and then 69 per cent in wins over second-placed Waratah a few weeks later and when it beat the Tiwi Bombers with just 20 fit men in late October, including a nine-goal third quarter.
It’s hardly revolutionary but pressure on the ball carrier appears to be an important weapon against a Districts side which has been the big improver in 22-23.
The numbers separating the league’s top two
Round 12 pits two of the league’s most potent forward lines against each other in a battle for top spot, and unsurprisingly, there are clear similarities between the teams.
Waratah and Southern Districts, who will duke it out at Gardens Oval on Saturday, are second and third respectively for total goals, total points, contested possessions, inside 50s, contested marks and inside 50 marks in 2022-23.
Victorian recruit Darcy Hope has been a huge inclusion for the Tahs, especially with the absence of Corey Rich (two MPL games this season), when it comes to some of those forward line benchmarks: second for forward 50 marks while third for contested marks and goals in the league.
In a similar vein, former Tah big man and leading target Sam Dunstan is third for forward 50 marks and sixth for contested catches and goals for Districts in Men’s Premier League.
He was close to unstoppable in stages against the Tiwi Bombers in Round 7 with seven goals and eight inside 50 marks.
The similarities continue with both teams boasting a smaller forward doing serious damage on the scoreboard: Jayden Magro with 30 majors for the year while Luke Smith has 18.
The remainder of the goals are often produced by midfielders who venture forward: Morris (nine) for Waratah and Matt Shannon (nine) for Districts.
Meanwhile, for the Crocs, Smith has been a contested ball leader (fifth in the league) and ninth for total disposals while Shannon is sixth for inside 50s, just behind Morris in third.
Both teams also chart in the bottom five for rebounds 50s, suggesting opposition clubs simply aren’t getting the ball into their forward line as often against either side.
However, in one clear difference, Waratah are leading the competition for one percenters – combining spoils, smothers, blocks and knock ons – with Districts a distant sixth.
Either way, this promises to be one of the most anticipated contests of the year: a retooled Waratah against an overhauled Districts team
The numbers behind Nightcliff’s slide
Few would have been brave enough to predict Nightcliff would be sitting seventh after 10 rounds of Men’s Premier League footy, and go a month without a win.
Admittedly, the Tigers, who made the preliminary final last season after three consecutive flags in the top flight, are the only team to have two byes so far this season.
And senior coach Chris Baksh also lost the likes of former premiership captain Phil Wills, and forwards Liam Holt-Fitz and Kyle Emery, during the off-season, while guns Cam Ilett and Daniel Bowles have been unavailable for extended periods in 2022-23.
But the Tigers started the season well, accounting for a tenacious PINT in the wet in the opening round, belting Tiwi Bombers before knocking off Waratah in Round 5 to assert themselves as an early season threat.
Then the wheels began to fall off.
A 3-5 Nightcliff, who haven’t won since the 34-point victory over Tahs in late October, have dropped games you would have pencilled in as wins at the start of the season, including its most recent losses: Wanderers and then Darwin Buffaloes in successive weeks.
Their situation, however, can be partially blamed on a lack of connection and finish up forward.
Nightcliff kicked the most goals during the regular season up until the final round in 2021-22 – 11 more than premiers St Mary’s – and enjoyed the largest share of inside 50s,
However, the Tigers kicked 7.18 against St Mary’s in Round 7 and had all the play in the final minutes before going down by two points in a loss which may still sting.
They also recorded just six points by half time against the Eagles in Round 9, eventually slotting 7.11 to lose by 11 points.
The Tigers currently don’t have a goal kicker within the top 10, with John Butcher’s 11 majors from three games their best, albeit boosted by a seven-goal haul.
Last season, the Tigers had four in the top 12 by the end of Round 17: Ilett (32), Emery (30), Trent Melville (28) and Shaun Wilson (23).
This year, Ilett and Wilson have produced 11 between them while Melville hasn’t been sighted since Round 3 after suffering a head knock.
The Tigers also got their hands on the ball more than any other team last regular season, with 276 more touches than its nearest rival — Bowles and Sam Harper were the third and fifth most prolific disposal getters for the Tigers in 2021-22, until Round 18.
However, Harper has played more games in the Reserves this season and the reigning Nichols Medallist has turned out in just two MPL matches and has not been sighted since the club’s belting of the Bombers, where he absolutely torched the visitors from half back.
Bowles was also the league’s number two rebounder from defensive 50 last season, second only to Southern Districts’ Michael Bowden.
Fortunately for the Tigers, some things have remained the same: Brodie Filo – first in the competition for disposals last year – continues to reign, second in the MPL for touches and inside 50s.
We’re not ready to write Nightcliff off, but its season won’t get any easier in Round 11: an away fixture against Waratah at Gardens Oval.
It promises to be a season-defining game.
The numbers behind Tiwi Bombers’ first win in 988 days
Getting their hands on the ball and finding targets, especially within forward 50, was the key for the Tiwi Bombers as they won their first game in 988 days.
For the first time this Men’s Premier League season, against PINT, the Bombers won the disposal count, ground ball gets and inside 50s, and uncontested marks just for the second time, beating the Greenants by 15 points in Round 5.
The Bombers have been utterly destroyed when it comes to possessions this year; the closest they had got to closing the gap was 110, against both Nightcliff and Palmerston in heavy defeats.
What also certainly helped on Saturday at Wurrumiyanga was the precision passing of former AFL players Sam Darley and Harley Bennell, and defender Nicholas Hooker, who collected 74 touches between them, going at 85 per cent efficiency by hand and foot, orchestrating damaging runs from half back.
Tiwi also had a superior number of forward 50 marks for the first time this season, 15-7, with Stanley Tipiloura (four) and Kim Kantilla (three) proving to be focal points.
They have been belted in this area all season, 1-17 against Nightcliff, 8-16 (Buffaloes), 5-21 (St Mary’s) and 5-13 (Palmerston).
Against Darwin Buffaloes, they were also smashed for uncontested marks, 73-141, only to be saved by Buffs’ poor kicking for goal.
With the Bombers welcoming back key players, including Dion Munkara and Darley after suspension, they will also be bolstered by the debut of Shannon Rioli from St Mary’s for its match against Waratah this Saturday.
However, in a similar vein, Waratah have not lost a game when they have had the edge in uncontested marks, with notable advantages in a big win over St Mary’s (74-36) and also Palmerston (61-45).
The second tier stars underpinning Palmerston’s success
While all the pre-season talk surrounding Palmerston was about a swelling list of ex-AFL champions descending on Cazalys Arena, a number of new, lesser known faces have underpinned their improvement so far.
In a similar story to that of Southern Districts, who have had a big off-season luring some quality names to Freds Pass (Cam Ellis-Yolmen, Kaine Stevens, Matt Dennis, Matt Shannon) the Pies have also been busy replenishing their stocks.
Palmerston, who finished last season second from the bottom but are now currently on top of the ladder, have added some quality to complement the likes of AFL champions and premiership players in Eddie Betts, Mathew Stokes, Gary Ablett and Travis Varcoe.
The Pies currently have four players within the Top 10 disposal getters, three for clearances and two in tackles and inside 50s, while boasting the league’s leading ruckman in Tristen Waack with 72 hit outs.
It also doesn’t hurt that Betts is leading the competition’s goal kicking with 13 majors from three games.
While reigning Nichols medallist Eric Guthrie keeps popping up in those statistical benchmarks in 2022-23, so has Baxter Mensch, who started his NTFL season with an almighty bang, collecting 43 touches with 16 contested, 14 marks and three goals.
ALL THE INDIVIDUAL AND TEAM STATS
DARWIN BUFFALOES VS TIWI BOMBERS
PALMERSTON MAGPIES VS NIGHTCLIFF TIGERS
The Geelong West midfielder, who won the Allthorpe Medal as the Geelong Football League’s best player in the reserves in 2019, could be the league’s best recruit so far.
Sam Clohesy, who played five games for Werribee in the VFL in 2022, has also been a handy addition, picking 26 touches, 13 marks and five clearances in its best win in Round 3, a six-point victory over Nightcliff.
And speaking of Nightcliff, Tigers premiership captain Phil Wills has also been strong, averaging 20 possessions a game.
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