The NT News predicts who will win in Round 12 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
We’re closing in on the Christmas break but there’s still one more massive round to go including a top of the table clash. We’ve analysed each match and predicted who will win in Round 12 and why.
Local AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from Local AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
We’re heading into the Christmas break but first there’s one more blockbuster weekend of NTFL action to play.
Headlining Round 12 is a top of the table clash between Waratah and Southern Districts, with the winner heading into the two-week break in top spot.
There’s also an exciting match-up between Nightcliff Tigers and Palmerston Magpies, with both sides needing a win to turnaround their seasons.
Other matches on Saturday include a face-off between Tiwi Bombers and Darwin Buffaloes, and a clash between St Mary’s and PINT.
Tiwi Bombers vs Darwin Buffaloes
The Darwin Buffaloes are aiming to secure their spot in the finals when they take on the Tiwi Bombers.
It was a surprisingly tight affair when the sides last met with the Double Blues kicking 7.22 in Round 3 so kicking straight will be the main aim.
With their best side on the field, Buffaloes are one of the best sides in the comp and so far they’ve only conceded games to other sides within the finals spots.
Jarrod Stokes is one of the most dangerous players in the league and with his pace he will be able to cause problems for Tiwi all night.
Mitch Robinson and Thomas Clarke will be important midfield allies for their captain but it’s the forwards that need to perform on the night.
Liam Holt-Fitz is the main man for kicking goals but there are plenty of players within this Double Blues outfit that can slot one through if needed.
Meanwhile, Tiwi showed in holding on to a draw against PINT they’re a side on the up.
Crucial to the game plan is their tackle pressure and intensity in the one-on-ones and it’s that same game plan that can catch Buffs off guard.
Give the Bombers a sniff and they will be in the action all night.
Most important for the bottom side is they’ve got a growing group of leaders around the park, including Paddy Heenan, Harley Bennell and Dion Munkara.
Shannon Rioli and his brother Ben Rioli are in for a second week in a row bringing plenty of premiership winning experience with them.
Those leaders will demand their side step up when needed and most importantly not drop their heads when the going gets tough, an issue they’ve faced in recent years.
But at the moment, and particularly after a week’s break, Buffaloes are perhaps the more potent side at this stage.
Our tip: Buffaloes by 23 points
Waratah vs Southern Districts
After knocking off the reigning premier in Round 11, Southern Districts go into the Gardens Oval clash with a shedload of belief.
Although St Mary’s had their chances to pinch it in the dying minutes, it was arguably Crocs’ best win for the season considering they were without key defender Frazer Driscoll and midfield bull Cam Ellis-Yolmen.
Crocs’ win over Tiwi Bombers on Bathurst Island with just 20 fit men was previously their best win but the Saints were on a five-game winning run when they overcame them.
The last time these two met in Round 3, Waratah were without several big names, including Corey Rich, Rob Turnbull, Dylan and Will Collis, as they went down by 37 points at Freds Pass in an ultimately forgettable affair.
For the return bout, Southern Districts go in without captain Dean Staunton (rumoured to have injured ribs) and appear to be missing Driscoll for the second week running.
It will be all hands on deck for the Crocs down back who will have to curb the double act of Jayden Magro and Darcy Hope, which has harvested 50 goals between them this year, including an all-important six in Round 11 against Nightcliff when the team slotted seven in total.
In a similar vein, Luke Smith and former Tah Sam Dunstan have combined for 36 majors, with plenty of other options to be drawn on.
Dunstan hobbled off in the third term against the Saints with a suspected knee complaint, only to return later.
Tahs will miss Joel Stevens through suspension, who provided a solid number of forward entries, tackles and a goal against the Tigers, while Abe Ankers and Will Collis have been named as emergencies.
One thing is for sure Waratah traditionally play Gardens Oval better than most.
So a win here for Districts, with a couple of key outs, might just be their best effort of 2022-23 so far.
Our tip: Waratah by 10 points.
Nightcliff Tigers vs Palmerston Magpies
There are curious similarities between the form lines of Nightcliff and Palmerston in the Men’s Premier League, albeit through forces not entirely confined to the football field.
After strong starts to the season both are staring at potential oblivion if their extended win droughts continue.
It appeared to be a situation relatively normal when Chris Baksh’s men dispatched Waratah in Round 5 by 34 points to announce themselves as an NTFL force once more.
However, the Tigers have not won since as they slid to second last on the ladder on the back of some poor connection up forward.
The competition’s most potent team last season, the Tigers have slipped to eighth for total goals and points in 2022-23.
In a similar vein, the Magpies were an early season fancy, taking the scalp of the Tigers by a straight kick in Round 3 at Cazalys Arena.
However, the Pies have not won since Round 6 after its 17-point victory over Southern Districts in Round 9 was erased from the record books due to a fly-in breach.
The past two weeks have been arguably their worst of the season, with losses to bottom four teams PINT and Wanderers plus AFLNT’s decision to declare the Round 8 and 9 matches forfeits.
However, in Nightcliff’s defence their biggest loss, in terms of margin, over the past six games was a 19-point deficit to Southern Districts at Freds Press, albeit helped by the Crocs kicking 3.12 over two quarters.
In a mixed result at the selection table, the Pies welcome back reigning Nichols medalist Eric Guthrie and Cam Pedersen but one of their best – gun defender Sam Clohesy – have not been named while Eddie Betts is listed as an emergency.
The last time these two teams met, Clohesy and Betts were both named in the club’s best.
Pies coach Josh Heath would also do well to put in a call to Waratah mentor Ryan Ayres on how he kept Nightcliff jet Brodie Filo to just 14 touches in Round 11.
For the Tigers, Hamish Hartlett plays his third game at the club, while SANFL goal kicker Sam Overall is out again.
With Palmerston vulnerable, can Nightcliff finally take a chance to revive its season?
Our tip: Nightcliff by 24 points.
St Mary’s vs PINT
St Mary’s are eager for revenge as they take on a PINT side who have proven themselves time and again in their debut Premier League season.
Saints are not taking this match-up lightly having lost against the Greeants way back in Round 3 and have perhaps their best side of the season listed.
Dylan Landt and Nate Paredes have absolutely dominated in the Green Machine’s midfield commanding possessions, even in a losing cause against Districts in Round 11.
Everything comes through those two and if Saints are going to get revenge they are the two players the side will need to be their reliable selves.
Nick Yarran, the joint 2020-21 NT News Player of the Year, has also found more of the ball of late inserting more pace in the Saints forward line.
As we saw against Tiwi, PINT struggle against pace and Yarran, in tandem with Joseph Salmon, can bring that speed with ball in hand and tackle intensity to unnerve the Greenants.
But unlike the Bombers, St Mary’s have two tall forwards in Brandyn Grenfell and Jackson Calder who are more than happy to snap up the ball at any opportunity.
It’s a lot for PINT to deal with, particularly considering they are not a side known for piling on the points.
Brock Carter is a strong asset in the ruck, while Damian McMahon and Elliott Chalmers know how to work the ball but it can be a coin toss once the ball gets into the forward line.
PINT to their credit are not a side known for getting belted and have kept the scores tight against even the best sides.
But Chris Neild and Jett Trotter will need their accuracy on point to contend with both scoreboard pressure and a Saints backline carrying plenty of known talent.
It’s a tough task but the Greenants are a side who have done it before and with Shannon Motlop at the helm, are a side who have the knowledge to do it again.
Our tip: St Mary’s by 18 points
NTFL ROUND 11 PLAYER RATINGS AND TALKING POINTS
From fly-in player breaches to Tiwi’s pace unsettling PINT there was plenty of excitement and controversy in Round 11 of the 2022-23 NTFL season.
In the men’s competition, Southern Districts, Waratah and Wanderers came out the winners, while PINT and Tiwi played to a draw.
And on the women’s side of the draw it was St Mary’s, Nightcliff, Palmerston and PINT who claimed victory.
Tiwi’s pace unsettles PINT
Tiwi Bombers may be bottom of the table, but there’s one side they have had the better of in season 2022-23: PINT.
The Greenants have been the revelation of the season, proving time and again they can mix it with the best sides, including strong efforts against Waratah, and beating St Mary’s at its growing fortress, DXC Arena.
However, the Bombers’ pace and X-factor has twice now been the undoing of the Greenants’ game plan.
In their first meeting, Tiwi were spurred on by their home support in a return to Bathurst Island, where they ended their 988 day win drought.
And in Round 11, they once again caught PINT off guard with their flair and tackling pressure, causing all sorts of issues for the Greenants’ forward line.
PINT fought back and came away with a draw on the back of their midfield ascendancy, but it was not the result they wanted at the start of the day.
For Shannon Motlop’s charges, it’s a wake-up call: pace could be a concern as they approach a possible finals campaign.
And for the Bombers, it’s been a huge positive and week by week they’re getting better, showing signs of the flair Tiwi is famous for.
They won’t make finals this year, but with Brenton Toy at the helm, they are moving in the right direction.
PINT vs Tiwi Bombers Player Ratings
3. Brayden Rioli (Tiwi)
2. Damian McMahon (PINT)
1. Ben Rioli (Tiwi)
Clubs need to crack down on fly-in breaches
Due diligence from NTFL clubs and their respective leaders and committees has never been more important.
Palmerston was slugged $10,000 and lost four competition points after being found to have breached the league’s fly-in rules, in Round 8 and 9 against St Mary’s and Southern Districts respectively.
They also slipped to fifth and their percentage obviously took a hit.
There is a degree of sympathy for the Magpies.
With clubs largely run by volunteers, it can be difficult balancing the living situations of scores of players.
However, fly-in breaches are nothing new.
St Mary’s (twice) and Nightcliff were caught out by the fly-in rule in recent seasons.
The Saints copped a monster $11,500 fine for their troubles in 2020-21, which should have sent a warning sign to the rest of the competition.
The financial and competition ramifications are too great to treat the issue as anything other than one of the most important things a club has to get right.
It might be time for clubs to ensure they have their most organised staffers overseeing the domestic status of their players.
Districts have made the most of home clashes
Southern Districts are top-of-the-table but only have one more game at Freds Pass for the season.
But the numbers show it might not be such a bad thing.
The Crocs’ run home will surely throw up plenty of challenges, starting with a Round 12 rendezvous with second-placed Waratah.
Shannon Rusca’s men have not been beaten at home in 2022-23, apart from the Round 9 clash with Palmerston which was later declared a forfeit.
Crocs were far from their best that day, kicking just 4.15 from a superior inside forward 50 count (50-33).
Their final home game will be against PINT at Freds Pass in Round 16, with their other “home” fixtures against Tiwi Bombers and Darwin Buffaloes to be held at TIO Stadium.
However, despite a spotless home record, Crocs have had larger victories on the road, with an average winning margin of 30 compared to 19 at home.
Southern Districts vs St Mary’s Player Ratings
3. Jake McQueen (Districts)
2. Luke Smith (Districts)
1. Jackson Calder (Saints)
Nightcliff’s fall from grace
Has there been a bigger fall from grace than the 2022-23 version of Nightcliff in recent seasons?
After three consecutive flags and a preliminary final appearance last season, the Tigers have dropped their past five matches to sit second last on the Men’s Premier League ladder, just six points clear of the Tiwi Bombers.
For the history buffs, St Mary’s won the flag in 2016/17, lost a semi-final the following season only to finish dead last the next.
A Round 11 loss to Waratah now means Nightcliff are likely to miss the finals for the first time in a decade.
The Tigers, who kicked the highest amount of goals last season in Men’s Premier League, have lost firepower, and at times, accuracy, after losing the likes of Liam Holt-Fitz and Kyle Emery before the season started.
John Butcher remains their leading goal kicker with 11 from just three games (including a seven-goal haul) while Michael Mummery, who started the season strongly with seven goals from his first three games, has three from his last four.
Tigers champ Shaun Wilson, who was one of the club’s most potent forwards last season, has kicked three goals over that five-game losing streak.
Nightcliff has also not reached double figures in the goals column since they last won, a 13.8 effort against Waratah in Round 5.
From their past five games, Nightcliff have kicked more points than goals on four occasions, while eking out just 6.6 against Tahs.
However, with Palmerston off the boil and vulnerable, after losing four points due to a fly-in breach, can the Tigers launch a late season revival starting at Cazalys Arena?
Waratah vs Nightcliff Tigers Player Ratings
3. Scott Carlin (Waratah)
2. Brodie Carroll (Waratah)
1. Ryan Mu (Nightcliff)
Percentage is key
Wanderers are back in finals contention after muscling past Palmerston in Round 11, but they’re far from the only side in the hunt.
This season is the closest we’ve seen in a long time, and after 11 rounds, we don’t have a clear picture about which five teams are destined for finals action.
In fact, only six competition points divide Darwin Buffaloes in fourth and Nightcliff Tigers in eighth, and so percentages are crucial.
It’s in the percentage where the forfeits will hurt the Magpies the most, handed two 60-point losses as a result of its fly-in missteps.
And for that reason they would have wanted to make a point against the Eagles, both to recoup their lost four competition points and to heal their wounded percentage.
Instead, they lost with their percentage now sitting at 83.74: lower than both sixth-placed PINT (106.4) and eighth-placed Nightcliff (118) who are in the chasing pack.
There’s still six rounds to play, but for some there are only five games left because of byes, so winning and winning well has never been more important.
Can Buffaloes and Palmerston keep their finals dreams alive? Or will one of the pack leap back into contention? Time will tell.
Wanderers vs Palmerston Magpies Player Ratings
3. Beau O’Connell (Wanderers)
2. Thomas Boyes (Wanderers)
1. Baxter Mensch (Palmerston)
Video: Stomping and umpire threats among NTFL Round 15 charges
A player has been directed straight to the tribunal for stomping on an opponent, while another was charged with threatening an umpire. See all the charges from NTFL Round 15.
How to watch every match of the 2024-25 NTFL Round 16 live
Both the NTFL men’s and women’s top two will face-off as the headline games in a round full of big encounters finals rapidly approaching. Find out how to watch every match LIVE.