The NT News predicts who will win in Round 11 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
Another massive weekend of Top End footy is on the way with some interesting match-ups in store. We’ve analysed each match and predicted who will win in Round 11 and why.
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There’s plenty of NT footy still to play and we’ve got another big weekend ahead in Round 11.
The men’s action kicks off on Saturday with PINT looking for revenge against the Tiwi Bombers at DXC Arena.
Then it’s over to Norbuilt Oval for the potential match of the round between second placed Southern Districts and third placed St Mary’s, who are looking for six wins in a row.
Other matches on Saturday include a face-off between Waratah and Nightcliff, and an interesting encounter between Wanderers and Palmerston.
PINT vs Tiwi Bombers
DXC Arena - 3pm
Last time these two sides met in Round 5 it was bottom side Tiwi Bombers who triumphed and broke a 988-day drought, winning by 15 points.
But PINT have come a long way since then and could this weekend put themselves right into the finals race, jumping to fifth with a victory.
Chris Nield is the key man up front for the Greenants at the moment, but they have a few players who know how to kick a goal at DXC Arena, like Jett Trotter, who has 13 majors for the season.
They also have ruckman Brock Carter (second in the league for hitouts) forever feeding his hungry midfield.
He was at his best against Palmerston last round, as the ball went practically unchallenged in aerial contests in the absence of Tristen Waack.
From there, PINT have been able to play games on their terms; something which also helped them take the match up to top sides Waratah and Southern Districts in recent weeks.
However, PINT have been without one of their key men in co-captain Ben Smyth since Round 7, perhaps an indicator that this side can get even better.
Tiwi have also had some strong showings in recent weeks, against St Mary’s and Waratah, but the scoreline was still against them on both occasions.
Harley Bennell and Dion Munkara have proved themselves strong leaders on the ground, and if anything is going to go right for Tiwi, they need to produce.
However, away from home and at the fortress which is DXC Arena, the Bombers may find life a little too hard to stick with the Greenants.
Our tip: PINT by 32 points
Southern Districts vs St Mary’s
Norbuilt Oval - 4pm
This should be Southern Districts’ biggest test of the season.
While Crocs got the better of undermanned Nightcliff and Waratah outfits at Freds Pass, the reigning premiers have won their past five in a row and any early season doubts – it’s hard to believe they were once 1-3 - about their credentials have been dismissed.
The last time Districts played at Norbuilt Oval, they shot themselves in the foot, monstering the inside 50 count (50-33) only to kick 4.15 in a 17-point loss.
It was a similar story last time these two sides met in Round 5, with the Crocs boasting superior forward entries, only to come up short on the scoreboard.
However, they were more like the team of earlier in the season last round, racking up 13.11 against a Wanderers team who had been showing signs of a mid-season revival.
A huge plus for Crocs will be returning star ruck Matt Dennis, who was one of their best when these sides last faced off, winning the hit outs 37-11.
It shouldn’t surprise then that Districts haven’t lost the hit outs at all this year.
It’s almost impossible to tip against the reigning premier, however, who are on a five-game winning run towards a premiership defence.
And the Saints’ back line of Lucas Jellyman-Turner, Matthew Green, Harrison Ling and Kieran Parnell will back themselves to match the array of forward line options at Shannon Rusca’s disposal: Luke Smith, Roy George, Sam Dunstan and Matt Shannon.
Goal sneak Beau Tedcastle also returns for his second game after missing out in the draft.
Our tip: St Mary’s by 12 points.
Waratah vs Nightcliff Tigers
Gardens Oval - 6pm
This will be a season-defining game for the Tigers who have dropped the past four fixtures and are facing their first season without finals action since 2012-13.
Nightcliff started the season strongly, but have lost their way in recent rounds, with forward line conversion one of its chief problems.
With Kyle Emery and Liam Holt-Fitz leaving Nightcliff Oval, and Trent Melville unsighted since Round 3, the Tigers, who led the competition for goals last season, are now mid-table for that form indicator in 2022-23.
The Tigers, who were also competition leaders for disposals last regular season, have dropped to fifth in 2022-23, while lacking the consistent input of Daniel Bowles and Cam Ilett.
One of the club’s most prolific ball getters last year in Sam Harper, has also played more games in the Reserves this season.
The latest stats to Round 9 also show the Tigers have only claimed the clearance battle once – by just one against St Mary’s - since their last Premier League win against Waratah in Round 5.
Fortunately, in a must-win match, the Tigers are set to welcome back Bowles and SANFL goal kicker Sam Overall, who slotted four majors on NTFL debut in Round 3 against Palmerston.
Waratah, however, much like the reigning premier, are travelling beautifully with a come-from-behind victory against Darwin Buffaloes in Round 10 to add to their back catalogue of hits.
With the welcome inclusion of some class, though, we’re expecting a strong response from Chris Baksh’s men to reset its finals assault.
Our tip: Nightcliff by six points.
Wanderers vs Palmerston Magpies
TIO Stadium - 7pm
Both Palmerston and Wanderers are on the hunt for a bounce back win after succumbing to disappointing Round 10 losses.
The Magpies backed up a confident and assured victory over an inaccurate Districts with a dour showing against PINT, missing the contribution of Eddie Betts who kicked five majors against Crocs.
Those five goals against PINT would have put the scoreboard pressure back on the Greenants, who eventually won by 47 points.
Lacking Tristen Waack in the ruck has been another loss for the side as the disappearance of his workrate and leap has left a void in the middle.
Baxter Mensch and Eric Guthrie in the midfield are still the go-to players while Sam Clohesy and Ashton Hams down back can put the pressure on anyone.
But the question is, who do they have to kick to up forward?
Both Betts, and Travis Varcoe, who lead the club for goals with 29 in total, appear to be missing on Saturday.
Wanderers have similar issues with a heavy reliance on Steven Motlop, who appears to be carrying an injury in recent weeks, as Ed Simpson has spent more time in the ruck.
The returning Simon Bates could be the man, who has kicked bags of five in the past.
And Round 9 Rising Star nominee Tyson Whyte is another option.
However, for the Muk Muks it’s their backmen of Brodie Neman, Mitchel Taylor and Braedon McLean who hold everything together.
Looking like an interesting contest on paper, it’s likely to be season over for the Eagles if they lose.
And if Palmerston go down, questions may begin to arise about their finals credentials.
Our tip: Palmerston by 14 points
BOMBERS WITH BITE: NTFL ROUND 10 PLAYER RATINGS, TALKING POINTS
Round 10 of the 2022-23 NTFL season was another standout with plenty of twists and turns from thrilling comebacks to big individual performances.
In the men’s competition St Mary’s, Southern Districts, Waratah and PINT came away the winners.
And in the women’s competition the match honours went to St Mary’s, Southern Districts, PINT and Darwin Buffettes.
Tiwi still have some bite
They didn’t win, and they’re still bottom of the table, but there is still plenty of fight in this Tiwi Bombers side.
Tiwi made life hard for Saints from centre bounce bringing the tackle pressure and intensity even when the game drifted away from them.
Former Gold Coast Sun Harley Bennell and long-time Bombers great Dion Munkara were instrumental driving forces in the midfield.
Their work rate and on-field leadership drove their squad on and forced Saints’ mistakes in front of goal.
It was still far from a perfect performance, or on the day a winning one, but with a few more improved outings we might see Tiwi in the wins once again.
For their part Saints did what they needed to complete the task and with dual forwards Jackson Calder and Brandyn Grenfell they’re looking stronger each week.
But that also points to the improvement of the Bombers who shipped over 200-points to an arguably worse St Mary’s side in Round 2.
Tiwi now come up against PINT, who are the only side they’ve beaten this year.
But DXC Arena is a tough place for any team to travel to and the Greenants will be wanting a taste of revenge themselves.
For the Bombers though, they just need to grind away and trust the system, maybe another result won’t be too far away.
Tiwi Bombers vs St Mary’s Player Ratings
3. Brandyn Grenfell (Saints)
2. Lucas Jellyman-Turner (Saints)
1. Nick Yarran (Saints)
Districts eyeing the top
When they have their goal-kicking boots firmly strapped on, Southern Districts remain one of the NTFL’s toughest opponents.
There was a 9.1 blitz against the Tiwi Bombers in Round 7 to bust open a tight contest on Bathurst Island, and a 14-goal effort against Waratah in Round 3, as the Crocs emerged as an early season force.
But over the past two rounds, the Crocs have produced scores of 4.15 and 8.7 over a patchy fortnight, plus 3.12 over two quarters against Nightcliff in Round 6.
However, Districts, without star ruckman Matt Dennis and midfield bull Cam Ellis-Yolmen, put their foot to the floor once against a resurgent Wanderers at Tracy Village Oval, winning by 47 points.
The usual suspects of transformed defender Matt Mazzini, Waratah recruit Sam Dunstan, former Geelong VFL livewire Luke Smith and Peel Thunder’s Roy George, were back in the action as the Eagles fell into old habits: starting poorly with just 1.1 in the opening quarter.
But a Round 11 date with St Mary’s looms as the ultimate test to see if the Crocs are back to their best or have just beaten up on a bottom four side.
Beaten by 21 points in Round 5, Crocs should have plenty of motivation to test themselves against the reigning premiers who has won the past five matches on the bounce.
Wanderers vs Southern Districts Player Ratings
3. Frazer Driscoll (Districts)
2. Matthew Mazzini (Districts)
1. Jack Mentha (Districts)
Waratah have the fitness
Waratah’s ability to grind out a game became somewhat of their calling card in the 2021-22 season, and that’s once again the case this year.
And that comes down largely to the talent and fitness of the players they have at their disposal.
Scott Carlin and Ed Morris have been two of the finds of the season, and both have seen plenty of the leather as they force their side on from the midfield.
Dylan Collis, Jake Bowd and Dan O’Dwyer are some of the standout defenders of the year, and Jayden Magro and Darcy Hope can finish any move off.
Tahs aren’t a side that need to play groundbreaking end to end footy, because they’ve got the players to stick with any side and then pile on the scores as the game breaks open.
It was effective once more against the Darwin Buffaloes who led for the majority of three quarters, only to be undone at the end.
Despite the obvious talents of Jarrod Stokes and Mitch Robinson, Waratah were able to stick with the Double Blues until their foes had little else to offer.
Waratah now return to their home ground of Gardens Oval to face Nightcliff and will fancy their chances to once more stay on top of the table.
The Tigers have been hapless in recent times, but could return renewed after a week off the field.
Darwin Buffaloes vs Waratah Player Ratings
3. Jarrod Stokes (Buffaloes)
2. Scott Carlin (Waratah)
1. Ed Morris (Waratah)
Buffettes not done with yet
Have the real Darwin Buffettes finally shown their faces after several weeks of disappointment?
The reigning premiers have not enjoyed the most fruitful start to the 2022-23 season, and while they look destined to play finals have not been the most convincing of sides.
It’s no secret the Buffs have lost a few players during the off-season and have rarely been able to put the full side they would want on the field at the same time.
But against second-placed Waratah the premiers returned to the winner’s circle after several weeks licking their wounds.
The Double Blues were humbled by Waratah in Round 2, with the red and white outfit beating them 14.8 (92) to 3.2 (20).
However, the Buffettes enjoyed a reversal of fortunes in Round 10 as they held on to a tight 4.4 (28) to 3.2 (20) victory.
Admittedly Tahs were missing some of their standouts including Jenna Singh, Lisa Roberts and the 2021-22 Rising Star Annabel Kievet.
The premiers now go into a bye week, but with an important win behind them they will carry some confidence into their next match.
But with PINT dominating the women’s competition and St Mary’s, Nightcliff and Tiwi all in the fight, Buffs will need to dot a few more wins together to secure finals.
Darwin Buffettes vs Waratah Player Ratings
3. Kylie Duggan (Buffettes)
2. Tayla Hart-Aluni (Buffettes)
1. Jo-Anna Baltais (Waratah)
PINT a true danger side
We might owe the Greenants an apology.
Last week, we announced finals were appearing unlikely at this stage for a then two-win PINT.
Coming up against an in-form Palmerston in Round 10, it was a potentially season-defining affair.
And it certainly proved to be, with PINT pulling off one of their best wins for the season, downing the second-placed Magpies at DXC Arena by 47 points, to shoot to sixth.
Shannon Motlop’s men have now claimed the scalps of two of the NTFL’s top five, after beating St Mary’s by 31 points in Round 3, also at Marrara.
Well regarded goal kicker Chris Nield delivered perhaps a breakthrough performance with four majors, arguably his best performance for the season.
Nield has a fine forward line pedigree, kicking 82 goals from 20 matches with Moooroopna in the Goulburn Valley Football League in 2022.
With the fifth-placed Darwin Buffaloes having the bye in Round 11, PINT should steal their position as they take on cellar dwellers Tiwi Bombers, again at DXC.
It will now be interesting to see how PINT deal with a new concept: a growing expectation to win.
PINT vs Palmerston Magpies
3. Brock Carter (PINT)
2. Ethan Penrith (PINT)
1. Mitchell Lowe (PINT)
Top five after Round 10:
Dylan Collis (Waratah) - 11 points
Dylan Landt (Saints) - 8 points
Jarrod Stokes (Buffaloes) - 8 points
Liam Holt-Fitz (Buffaloes) - 8 points
Steven Motlop (Wanderers) - 7 points
Matt Dennis (Districts) - 7 points
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