The NT News predicts who will win in Round 8 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
The appearance of a footy legend will have everyone captivated in Round 8 of the NTFL, but there’s plenty more action to come. We’ve analysed each match and predicted who will win and why.
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The appearance of a footy legend will have everyone captivated in Round 8 of the NTFL, but there’s plenty more action to come.
The men’s action kicks off in a blockbuster between a Gary Ablett Jr boosted Palmerston and reigning premiers St Mary’s.
Then on Saturday we have what promises to be a thriller between the Darwin Buffaloes and Nightcliff Tigers.
Other matches on Saturday include a do or die battle between Wanderers and Tiwi Bombers, followed by the round closer between Southern Districts and PINT.
WATCH ALL ROUND 8 STREAMS HERE
Palmerston Magpies vs St Mary’s
Palmerston are no doubt the talk of the town at the moment, but a St Mary’s side on the up could disrupt the Magpies party.
Have you heard, Gary Ablett Jr, perhaps one of the greatest players of all time, is playing for Palmerston?
And he’s not alone, bringing another of Geelong’s premiership players and a Palmerston product Mathew Stokes along for the ride.
It’s the sort of star power the Magpies have become accustomed to in the 2022-23 season, and it’s the sort of experience that has propelled them to the top of the table.
But Palmerston are not a side who have relied solely on these big name players as Baxter Mensch, Tristen Waack, Sam Clohesy and Eric Guthrie are some of the big performers of the year.
Outside of them there’s plenty of experience from Phil Wills to Will Farrer, this is an NTFL side that can and so far has delivered the results.
They come up against the reigning premiers, who will have had this match earmarked on their calendars from the start of the season.
Saints didn’t start the season with their usual high standards and find themselves with three losses after six games.
They will have also counted themselves lucky Nightcliff didn’t bring their kicking boots to the occasion in Round 6.
However, the win over Tigers and their earlier win over Southern Districts paint a picture of a Green Machine finally coming to life after a rusty start.
In a twist draft prospect Beau Tedcastle has been named for his first outing of the season, and could grab this opportunity to show his talent on the world stage.
Lucas Jellyman-Turner and Josh Smithson are also both in as fly-in options and will prove crucial, while a lot will be asked of the boot of Jackson Calder.
However, Saints will miss Dylan Landt who has been their best performer this season.
Saints have options and know how to turn up for the big occasions, but the form side at this stage is Palmerston, and there will be a crowd willing Gary Ablett Jr’s side to the win.
Our tip: Palmerston by 16 points
Darwin Buffaloes vs Nightcliff Tigers
A match-up between Buffaloes and Nightcliff at this stage of the season has the makings of a real touch-up.
Both sides have had their share of the wobbles in front of goal, with Buffaloes almost losing to Tiwi with a 7.22 in Round 3 while a 7.18 result cost Nightcliff the match against St Mary’s.
While they’re a side still prone to the odd wayward kick, Buffaloes have also become one of the more consistent outfits in the competition.
An important win over PINT in Round 7 showed off the talent right across this Double Blues outfit.
The backline including Bradley Stokes, Kaine Riley and Hayden Brown brought the tackle pressure and intensity against PINT, and it was enough to wear the new side down.
In the midfield captain Jarrod Stokes, who has pace to burn, and former Carlton and Brisbane player Mitch Robinson are able to rack up the possessions without issue.
And with Liam Holt-Fitz and Liam Whelan up front there’s not a lot stopping the chances Buffaloes have.
They may waste a couple more opportunities than they would like, and they’re by no means the finished article, but this a Buffaloes side with new life and they look ready for anyone.
As for Nightcliff, they’re still the experienced side able to turn it on against any opposition that we’ve become accustomed to.
But they’re still getting to know each other quite a bit after a few departures in the off-season.
Brodie Filo has been one of the early season standouts mustering touch after touch.
Then there’s Ryan Nyhuis, and the experience of Cam Ilett and Shaun Wilson which never go amiss.
They’re a side who know they should have beaten St Mary’s last week, and will be out to prove themselves, but this is also their first game of the year at TIO Stadium.
It’s a tough one to call, but the Buffaloes have looked a tad better so far this year and have the consistency Nightcliff have perhaps lacked so far.
Our tip: Buffaloes by 10 points
Wanderers vs Tiwi Bombers
This match at Tracy Village shapes up to be Wanderers’ best chance of a victory so far in 2022-23 with Tiwi appearing to miss their two best players and elite ball users, Sam Darley and Harley Bennell.
The Eagles are coming off a 78-point hammering at the hands of Waratah, with their defence particularly missing in recent weeks Lloyd Johnston, who is a draft fancy.
They also have not named key ball users Dane McFarlane and Marcus Totham while Marlon Motlop appears to be missing again.
However, a plus could be the return of former vice captain Simon Bates, who has had his off-field struggles in 2022.
Meanwhile, in a similar vein to the Eagles, Tiwi have lost one of its most important players for five weeks in playmaker Sam Darley for striking, who is in the club’s top five for rebound and inside 50s and disposals.
Fellow star Bennell, who leads the club for disposals and contested possessions, and second for clearances, has also not been named.
That’s a hell of a lot of run and carry lost from the team.
Plus, do the Bombers have a discipline issue at the moment?
Darley has been reported twice, while Dion Munkara (three weeks) and Tristan Singh-Lippo (two) have also served suspensions.
Tiwi have at least been competitive over the past three rounds, beating PINT at home before a relatively close finish at Gardens Oval against Waratah.
However, they were blown away by Southern Districts in the third term last round, unable to contain the big marking forwards of Sam Dunstan and Matt Mazzini, kicking 9.1 in a decisive third term.
The Eagles will again rely heavily on the likes of Brodie Newman, who leads the competition with 16 intercept marks, and second for rebound 50s, Mitchel Taylor and Daniel Weetra to ensure they won’t see a repeat of last week where the Tahs racked up 16.13.
Second last with just one win, Wanderers have too much talent to be written off just yet, especially this early in the season.
Our tip: Eagles by 12 points.
Southern Districts vs PINT
It’s still early in the season, but these are the types of games Southern Districts must win if they are to be considered a major finals threat.
After dropping an away game against St Mary’s and trailing by 26 points before the Round 4 match at Cazalys Arena against Darwin Buffaloes was abandoned due to an injury to Nick Weightman, Crocs won their first game on the road against the Tiwi Bombers.
And the Crocs will face the Greenants full of confidence after winning that encounter with 20 fit men after quarter time.
Ronald Fejo returns to the 22 after calling in sick before the ferry ride last Saturday morning but Jake McQueen will miss after copping a head knock from Sam Darley, costing the Bomber five weeks on the sidelines.
Meanwhile, PINT would have been disappointed with a 26-point loss to Buffaloes last round but have claimed some scalps so far (Wanderers, St Mary’s) in 2022-23.
The Greenants have some quality in their armoury with Brayden Taylor producing strong numbers at the coalface (tackles, clearances and ground ball gets), captain Ben Smyth is leading the competition for rebound 50s and Jett Trotter has kicked a bag of eight.
Brock Carter has also been holding his own in the ruck.
That being said, Districts have produced some even performances in recent weeks with plenty of contributors across the park in wins over Nightcliff and then the Bombers.
Our tip: Southern Districts by 24 points
NTFL ROUND 7 PLAYER RATINGS AND HIGHLIGHTS
Strong defences were the flavour of the week in a thrilling Round 7 of the 2022-23 NTFL season.
In the men’s competition it was Southern Districts, Darwin Buffaloes, St Mary’s and Waratah who came out on top.
While over in the women’s competition Round 7 went to the Tiwi Bombers, PINT, St Mary’s and Waratah.
Depleted Districts get job done
It was easily Southern Districts’ best win this season.
Despite downing the likes of undermanned Waratah and Nightcliff outfits at home in recent rounds, the Crocs had yet to get the four points on the road in the Men’s Premier League.
And doing just that against a resurgent Tiwi Bombers on their home deck, with just 20 fit men, made a pretty big statement that the Crocs are playing for their coach.
Already down a man after Ronald Fejo Jr failed to make the Saturday morning ferry ride to Bathurst Island due to ill health, Crocs had to withstand a first quarter assault of 6.2, led by the brilliance of Kim Kantilla.
Big man Sam Dunstan was also taken off momentarily during the first quarter with a head knock.
However, the day got a lot worse for Shannon Rusca’s men early in the second after Jake McQueen copped a heavy knock from Sam Darley, and took no further part in the fixture.
Districts were suddenly down two midfielders in front of a buzzing Wurrumiyanga crowd, keen for two home wins from two starts in 2022-23.
However, with the odds stacked against them, the Crocs not only withstood the body blows but flourished, kicking 9.1 in a decisive third term to transform the game from an even contest into a one-sided celebration.
The likes of Luke Smith, Matt Shannon, Jack Mentha and Nick Weightman, who was still recovering from being knocked out in Round 4, were instrumental as Dunstan and Matt Mazzini produced 10 goals between them.
The Crocs might have beaten better teams so far this season, but this was their best effort against the odds.
Player Ratings Tiwi vs Districts
3. Sam Dunstan (Districts)
2. Kim Kantilla (Tiwi)
1. Luke Smith (Districts)
Defence is the key
Defence wins games, and in the case of the Darwin Buffaloes that couldn’t be more true.
Against PINT, the Buffs were down one of their key defenders in Kevin Maroney, but still it was their tackle pressure and backline intensity which won the day.
Bradley Stokes and Kaine Riley have been two of the form backline players this season, always in the battle whether that means laying on a tackle, taking an intercept mark or booting a rebound 50.
Hayden Brown was another defender who showed his class in the win over PINT, shaping up well alongside the rest of the back six.
From seven rounds this season, keeping in mind they’ve missed one and a half games, the Double Blues have conceded just 353 points.
It means they’ve conceded the third lowest amount of points this season, behind only Nightcliff (304) and Southern Districts (337).
It’s a stark contrast to where the Buffs were at the end of last year sitting outside of finals with 1600 points conceded, the second most in the league.
There will be stern tests ahead for this defence, but should the side remain fit then there’s no reason why they will fall apart down back.
Other potent defences in season 2022-23 include the Dylan Collis-led backline of Waratah, the impressive Ashton Hams and Neville Jetta for Palmerston and Ryan Nyhuis’ Nightcliff back six.
However, the normally potent Wanderers defence has lost its edge, despite the work rate of Brodie Newman and Mitchel Taylor.
Player Ratings Buffaloes vs PINT
3. Sam Dunstan (Buffaloes)
2. Damian McMahon (PINT)
1. Hayden Brown (Buffaloes)
Tiwi women make more history
Another round on Bathurst Island and another moment in history for the Tiwi Bombers.
This time it was the Tiwi Bombers women to achieve with the women’s competition’s newest side winning their first ever home game.
The Bombers women have improved each and every week having already won their first ever game (v St Mary’s) in Round 2 and beaten one of last year’s grand final sides (Nightcliff) in Round 4.
But this victory, which has also pushed them into the top four, might just have been the sweetest so far.
The women watched their male counterparts snap a 988-day drought on their last Wurrumiyanga outing, and that must have only heightened the eagerness to grab some history of their own.
And against Southern Districts they did winning 7.12 (54) to 2.1 (13) after a massive four goal opening quarter.
Captain Kirra Hill-Carter contributed two goals, as did Laelia Dunn, as the Bombers women confirmed they’re a side everyone has to look out for.
They will now be licking their lips with a face-off against bottom-side Wanderers looming, which should only strengthen their position among the finals berths.
Player Ratings Tiwi vs Districts Womens
3. Jamie Lee Puautjimi (Tiwi)
2. Noreen Mungatopi (Tiwi)
1. Sherayn Puruntatameri (Tiwi)
Bad kicking is bad football
The old adage was proven true once again at Nightcliff Oval in Round 7 with the Tigers shooting themselves in the foot.
In fact, if they’d attempted that in a literal sense, they definitely would have missed the mark.
Kicking 7.17 against the reigning premier St Mary’s, it was a match they simply should have won, but somehow fell two points short of the Saints’ 9.8 (62).
They conjured a wayward 3.7 in the final term when the match was up for grabs, and seemingly had all the momentum in the final minutes.
The fact that the last kick of the game from Sam Overall, after the siren, missed the mark summed up a dirty night for Chris Baksh’s charges; compounded by a report of rough conduct against new recruit Hamish Hartlett.
The Tigers are officially a touch off the boil after a poor showing against Southern Districts at Freds Pass – lucky to have been beaten by just 19 points – the previous round.
It’s still early in the season but Nightcliff will look to right the ship – hopefully with the return of gun defender Daniel Bowles – against a Darwin Buffaloes outfit full of confidence after downing PINT by 26 points.
Currently sitting fifth, it will be a great litmus test for the Tigers.
Player Ratings Nightcliff vs St Mary’s
3. Matthew Green (Saints)
2. Ryan Nyhuis (Nightcliff)
1. Kieran Parnell (Saints)
How do we solve a problem like Wanderers?
We’ve said it before, on paper the Muk Muks are a side who should be able to compete with anyone.
Ed Simpson and Steven Moltop upfront, Dane McFarlane, Marcus Totham and Beau O’Connell in the midfield and the duo of Brodie Newman and Mitchel Taylor down back are all quality.
And yet, they are languishing at the bottom of the table with just one win from six games.
It all seems to come back to their inability to kick goals, a curse which has afflicted them since their Round 4 win over St Mary’s.
A 1.7 opening quarter against Waratah is not a side who can’t create chances, it’s a side who doesn’t know how to convert their opportunities.
Waratah scored just 3.1 in that same period, grinding out a lead because when they had their chances they scored them.
Tahs kicked on, while Wanderers were left to ponder what could have been as the game moved further and further away from them.
It’s not the first match this has happened to the Eagles, as they created more chances in their loss to Palmerston, and scored only three majors.
And yet here the Muk Muks are, at the stage of the season where they cannot afford to lose any more games if finals is still the aim.
They’ve got the Tiwi Bombers next, who have looked better in recent weeks, and with both sides needing the win this will be crucial for both teams.
Player Ratings Wanderers vs Waratah
3. Dylan Collis (Waratah)
2. Jayden Magro (Waratah)
1. Tom Banuelos (Waratah)
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