The NT News looks at the predictions and tips for Round 3 of the NTFL
We’re into Round 3 of the 2022-23 NTFL with plenty of exciting match-ups in store. We’ve looked at each match examining who will win and why.
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Round 3 of Men’s Premier League is here and it will witness a few clubs facing their toughest tests yet this season.
At Norbuilt Oval, Southern Districts, who looked impressive at times against Wanderers last Saturday, will take on a Waratah team which is absolutely humming at the moment.
Meanwhile, at DXC Arena, PINT face last year’s premiers in St Mary’s after solid hit-outs against Nightcliff and Palmerston so far.
Mass injuries catching up with the Greenants before a monster storm forced the TIO Stadium clash to be abandoned in the last quarter.
In other games, Darwin Buffaloes meet the struggling Tiwi Bombers at TIO and Palmerston play Nightcliff at Cazalys Arena, in one of the games of the round.
Find out who the NT News is picking on Saturday and why.
Southern Districts v Waratah
The Crocs v Tahs match promises to be a contest worth the drive to Freds Pass.
A remodelled Districts outfit impressed in their first NTFL hit out last Saturday while the Tahs are motoring along nicely, with one major scalp already in their keeping, last year’s premiers.
With a home crowd behind them, and the addition of inside midfielder, former Adelaide Crow and Brisbane Lion Cam Ellis-Yolmen making his Crocs debut, they are a couple of big ticks which will aid Districts’ push to go 2-0.
However, Wanderers definitely had their chances to win last Saturday at Norbuilt Oval, and some key metrics might reveal where the game was lost, and inform Waratah’s quest for three successive wins.
The Crocs managed to find a marking target inside 50 – 12 to the Eagles’ six – while Wanderers also gave away too many free kicks in the first half (11-5), killing off several forward thrusts.
Their tackle numbers also fell off a cliff in the final term, dropping from a game average of 13 per quarter to just seven in the last.
It’s hard to say if the Wanderers ran out of puff, as they led the one percenters 12-6 in the final term.
The Eagles’ total disposals fell away badly in the last, though, and simply didn’t use the ball well enough when they had it, with a superior inside 50 count adding insult to injury.
Waratah will also need to put some time into former Geelong livewire Luke Smith and Hawthorn two-gamer Dallas Willsmore, with eight goals and five marks inside 50 in total between them.
You would expect Cam Ellis-Yolmen to go forward at some point too, as he did for Woodville-West Torrens in the SANFL season to solid effect.
It’s also obvious but they will need to limit the influence of Matt Dennis, who had 29 hit outs while rotating with defender turned forward, Matthew Mazzini, with an ability to get boot to ball in a duel.
For Tahs, they will be bolstered further by the return of Abe Ankers, but are still without Corey Rich and Wil Collis, while brother Dylan has also not been named.
Robbie Turnbull is also not in the Tahs squad, who had a team-high 23 touches last week against Buffs.
That being said, it would a brave footy fan to pick against a Waratah team hellbent on atoning for last year’s grand final loss.
Ben’s tip: Waratah by 18 points.
Tiwi Bombers v Darwin Buffaloes
Tiwi Bombers need a big reaction after a shocking 154-point drubbing against St Mary’s in Round 2, but they come against a Buffaloes side with a point to prove of their own.
It has not been easy going for the Tiwi Bombers in the past few years, having not won a game in more 970 days, and against Saints that reality reared its head once again.
However, that’s not to say there’s no hope for the side from the islands who struggled early in the season, even in some of their best years.
There’s plenty of talent in this team particularly in their forwards with Kim Kantilla, Stanley Tipiloura and Nicholas Hooker always among the side’s best.
Mason De Wit is always a good man to have down back and he returns to the side after missing the 2021-22 season, while former AFL gun Harley Bennell is listed to play his first match in the NTFL, plus former GWS Giant and Western Bulldog Sam Darley.
Those two alone are big ins and should bolster a side looking to get on the front foot.
But Buffaloes will have other ideas, wanting to get back to its winning ways almost after their 45-point loss to Waratah.
This Buffs side is the strongest we’ve seen in the past few years and it will be the likes of Liam Holt-Fitz and Kokwam Niki who will bring the X-factor.
Then of course there’s Kaine Riley, who proved himself a massive inclusion for Buffs on the defensive end in his first outing.
Despite the big recruitments, no one has been better for the Double Blues in the opening two games than long time defensive ace Bradley Stokes.
One of three Stokes named in the starting line-up, Bradley acquitted himself well in the second round, topping the possessions with 25.
This is a side who truly mean business and have finals intentions after missing out in the 2021-22 season.
Not that it can’t be done, but it will take a massive reversal in fortunes for the Bombers to get up here.
Nathaniel’s Tip: Buffaloes by 63 points.
PINT v St Mary’s
The Greenants will face their toughest test yet in their debut season in Men’s Premier League, coming up against a St Mary’s outfit which rediscovered its mojo.
PINT have lost no fans so far this season and have matched it with the opposition both times for long periods.
In a deluge at Nightcliff Oval in Round 1, PINT were particularly competitive after half time and dominated the third term, more than doubling the Tigers’ tally of forward 50 entries.
However, the Greenants’ push for their debut win against Palmerston in Round 2 was cruelled by mass injuries before a monster storm descended on Darwin with the match poised at 61 points apiece.
They were out to a 25-point lead at half time before an Eddie Betts-led Pies revival.
Meanwhile, St Mary’s returned to their best against Tiwi Bombers with a monster 154-point mauling, which might say more about the latter than the former.
Dylan Landt and Nate Paredes, 85 touches and eight goals between them, were instrumental while Jackson Calder, Joseph Salmon and Nick Yarran combined for 10 goals.
PINT will obviously not be looking for a shootout, with the Greenants kicking only 13 majors from its two games so far and leading goal kicker Alex Harvey 18th on the list with three six-pointers.
Key forward Chris Neild is also out with a hand injury.
St Mary’s, on the other hand, have six goalkickers within the top 20.
Ben’s tip: St Mary’s by 50 points
Palmerston Magpies v Nightcliff Tigers
Saturday 7.30pm – Cazalys Arena
Nightcliff were best served by their veterans in Round 1 with Shaun Wilson, Cam Ilett and Brodie Filo taking the top three spots in the disposal count against debutants PINT.
Ilett in particular, who also added a whopping 14 tackles, showed he’s come into this season with the intent of adding to his enviable premiership title count.
For Round 3, 2021-22 joint Nichols medallist Daniel Bowles returns to the Tigers fold and will be one to watch alongside Ryan Nyhuis.
Also joining the Tigers contingent against Palmerston is South Adelaide SANFL forward Sam Overall, slotting into full forward with the goal of booting his new side to victory.
It’s a side full of talented players who know the Territory game all too well and once they get going it will be hard to stop them.
There’s no shortage of talent in the Palmerston side too, with this match having special meaning for former Nightcliff captain Phil Wills.
He knows how the Tigers side works and that will be a crucial asset for the Magpies should they still be in the fight in the second half.
Against PINT in Round 2 they started slow and were forced to rely on the talent of their recruited stars, such as Eddie Betts and Baxter Mensch.
But when Palmerston come against the Tigers they won’t be afforded the same luxuries, with the Greenants down rotations due to mass injuries.
The Magpies do, however, have some big inclusions this week with former AFL guns Travis Varcoe and Neville Jetta also stepping into the side.
It will be a tough battle at Cazalys Arena, but Nightcliff, are too experienced and well-knit.
Palmerston will take the fight to them, but any sloppiness in defence will be punished.
Nathaniel’s tip: Nightcliff by 16 points
Lessons learned from Round 2
The NTFL once again threw up an exciting set of matches in the second round, from a massive revenge-fuelled blowout to a storm-struck thriller.
In the men’s competition it was Waratah, St Mary’s and Districts who came out on top, while Palmerston and PINT played to a draw.
Meanwhile in the women’s competition Tiwi, Districts, Waratah and PINT came out the winners.
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Districts keep rivals guessing
The 2017-18 premiership coach held ex-SANFL gun Kaine Stevens under his hat until game day on Saturday at Freds Pass, while subverting expectations with his final 22.
The Crocs had recruited Sunraysia footballer Matt Mazzini, regarded as one of the better defenders in the local competition in 2022.
However, coach Shannon Rusca had other plans, telling the new recruit at training he would be playing in the forward line to give gun ruckman Matt Dennis a rest.
Mazzini, who had only known defence, was happy to take on the role, Rusca said.
The Crocs are a much different looking outfit this season, adding the likes of Dennis, Stevens and former Hawthorn player Dallas Willsmore.
They might need to keep a few more tricks up their sleeve if they are to beat the form team of the competition, Waratah, this Saturday at Freds Pass.
Round 2 Districts vs Wanderers Votes
3. Steven Motlop (Wanderers)
2. Luke Smith (Districts)
1. Matt Dennis (Districts)
PINT up for the challenge
There were positive signs against Nightcliff in Round 1, but against Palmerston at TIO Stadium PINT proved they aren’t in the NTFL just to make up the numbers.
The Greenants came into the contest with all the momentum and intent in the opening quarter looking to take their first ever Men’s Premier League win early in the season.
And they very nearly got there were it not for the loss of rotations (including two-goal scorer Christopher Nield) and the game being called off due to wild weather in the dying minutes with scores levelled.
Co-captains Matt Ryan and Ben Smyth were inspirational both scoring important goals and standing up when their side needed them.
Ethan Smith and Brock Carter were also strong, while Kyle Winter-Irving was a menace across the ground.
It’s only a matter of when rather than if for their first win, however they face a tougher challenge next week in a resurgent St Mary’s.
For their part Palmerston were sloppy and ill-disciplined in the first half before AFL champion Eddie Betts put on a masterclass to inspire some fight from his side.
Baxter Mensch (who once again topped the disposal count with 28), Josiah Farrer and Eric Guthrie also served the Magpies well and will be needed next week if Palmerston want to impress their home ground at the Cazalys Arena against Nightcliff.
Round 2 Palmerston vs PINT Votes
3. Ethan Smith (PINT)
2. Eddie Betts (Palmerston)
1. Eric Guthrie (Palmerston)
Bombers blasted
After being smashed by Waratah in Round 1, it was no surprise St Mary’s hit back hard in a 154-point mauling of Tiwi Bombers at Gardens Oval, with Chaney medallist Jackson Calder slotting six majors.
Rising Star nominee Ethan Bowden also shone scoring four goals against the Bombers.
It came nearly a year after, in Round 3 at TIO Stadium last season, the Saints belted the Bombers 189-47 as Calder bagged 10.
Saturday’s smashing was the Bombers’ biggest loss since January, 2021 when Wanderers flogged Tiwi 241-51 as Brett Eddy slotted nine and Simon Bates six.
Saints will now turn their attention to PINT who have lost no fans so far in 2022-23, with competitive efforts against Nightcliff and Palmerston in the opening rounds.
It will be a challenge for both sides, for PINT it will be about taking on one of the top teams while Saints need to prove their consistency.
Another big win will put the reigning premiers back towards the top of the table.
Life doesn’t get much easier for the Bombers, though, playing a competitive Buffaloes outfit who were far from disgraced against the league leaders, Waratah.
Named in the Bombers squad for Round 2, hopefully the Bombers can inject the likes of Harley Bennell, Sam Darley and Mason DeWit into the team this Saturday.
Round 2 Tiwi vs St Mary’s Votes
3. Dylan Landt (St Mary’s)
2. Nathaniel Paredes (St Mary’s)
1. Matthew Green (St Mary’s)
Tiwi women’s first win
It was history in the making at Gardens Oval on Saturday with the Tiwi Bombers women’s team enjoying their first win in Premier League.
The Bombers, who started strongly in Round 1 against Palmerston only to fade away in the second half, kept their foot to the floor against St Mary’s, winning 73-25.
The side have all the natural skills and talent to get the better of any opposition, but fitness and going the four quarters will be what they focus on.
It was the club’s first win at Premier League level since February, 2020.
The Bombers will face a sterner test this weekend, taking on the reigning premiers Darwin Buffettes, who will be looking for atonement after being thrashed by Waratah 92-20 last round.
Buffettes will be out for revenge after that thrashing in which Waratah, led by another massive display from Aggie Singh, showed they’re up for the contest in the 2022-23 season.
Round 2 Waratah vs Buffettes Votes
3. Naomi Celebre (Waratah)
2. Jenna Singh (Waratah)
1. Kierra Zerafa (Waratah)
Tahs the side to beat
It’s a well-known saying that you don’t win a premiership in October.
No set of players will have heard that more than Waratah who currently sit atop the table with two wins from two matches against two of their major rivals.
And while you may not win a premiership at this stage of the competition, you can certainly put yourself in a position to win it.
Waratah have done everything right so far beating St Mary’s by 101-points followed by a 45-point beating of Darwin Buffaloes.
Brodie Carroll and Rob Turnbull were constants around the action against Buffaloes with 23 and 22 disposals respectively.
Thomas Cree was also explosive keeping the scoreboard ticking over with three goals while nailing four tackles, only beaten in the latter department by his captain Carroll who hit eight.
A large part of their success has been how quickly they’ve gelled as a side keeping the majority of their list from last season with only the odd addition to complement their squad.
They head out to Norbuilt next round to face Southern Districts and will fancy their chances as the form team.
Waratah will grind out the contest as they’ve done in the opening two rounds until the moment is right to blow the match wide open.
Round 2 Waratah vs Buffaloes Votes
3. Thomas Cree (Waratah)
2. Brodie Carroll (Waratah)
1. Bradley Stokes (Buffaloes)
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