Federal Election 2019: Experts tip who will win and who will fall
Experts have given their predictions for 35 of the “must watch” battlegrounds, including some of the country’s most marginal seats, the dirtiest fights and the heavyweights who might fall.
Federal Election
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Peter Dutton is “highly unlikely” to win back his seat but Tony Abbott is tipped to narrowly survive the political fight of his life.
Some of Australia’s top election analysts are also divided on whether independent Kerryn Phelps can win back Wentworth.
Political experts have given News Corp Australia their predictions for 35 of the “must watch” battles of the election, including some of the country’s most marginal seats, the dirtiest fights and the heavyweights who might fall.
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It shows traditional Liberal strongholds like Sturt in South Australia and Deakin and Higgins in Victoria are potentially up for grabs.
The Coalition, tipped to lose between 15 and 20 seats, could also see the number of Liberal women in the House of Representatives shrink to its lowest point since the early 1990s.
Barnaby Joyce, who resigned as Deputy Prime Minister after revelations over his affair with former staffer Vikki Campion last year, is expected to hold on.
But Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said Mr Joyce would suffer “an enormous primary swing against him” and could be in serious trouble if a high-profile independent decides to challenge for New England.
His estranged wife Natalie, who revealed last week she had hit the gym and taken to bodybuilding post-breakup, was notably absent along with their four daughters when Mr Joyce was forced to fight a by-election in 2017 after being punted from Parliament over dual-citizenship.
Health Minister Greg Hunt and former Liberal Julia Banks are expected to be locked in one of the grittiest fights of the campaign in Flinders, where last year’s leadership spill to oust Malcolm Turnbull will be a key factor.
Other party heavyweights — including Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and Attorney-General Christian Porter — could be wiped out.
It will mean the Coalition could spend months or even years rebuilding if the election goes as forecast.
Mr Dutton, who was almost ousted at the 2016 election but clung on by just 2911 votes, is widely expected to lose Dickson in Queensland.
Mr Abbott, who has a margin of 11.5 per cent in Warringah, is tipped to narrowly hold on against independent Zali Steggall. But experts say “anything can happen”.
Election analyst Malcolm Mackerras predicted Labor would sweep to victory by picking up at least 15 seats from the Coalition.
The veteran psephologist, who crunched historical voting data, public opinion polls and campaign finance information, predicted some of the country’s most marginal seats — such as Capricornia and Dawson in Queensland, Banks in NSW and Boothby in South Australia — would stay in Coalition hands.
But Labor could pick up a number of safer Liberal seats like La Trobe in Victoria or Swan and Pearce in WA, he said.
A swing of 3 per cent was “quite likely”.
That could see Coalition held seats Forde, Gilmore, Flynn, Robertson, Petrie, Dickson, Hasluck, Page and Chisholm fall to Labor, according to the Mackerras Pendulum for the 2019 election.
Dunkley in Victoria has also become marginally Labor since a redistribution.
Griffith University political analyst Paul Williams also predicted Labor would pick up between 15 and 20 seats.
“I’m pretty certain there’ll be a majority. There won’t be a hung Parliament,” he said.
Reid may also be lost after Craig Laundy announced he was quitting politics, while Bennelong will be hotly contested.
Dr Williams added that the Liberals would need to take drastic action to boost the number of women in their ranks.
“I think before the next federal election there will be a quota in place for the federal Liberals,” he said.
“They will have to bite the bullet because you’ve even got some conservative Liberals saying … that women have stopped listening.”
Several Liberal women have already left politics or have marginal seats, while just four women are considered to be in “safe” seats.
Experts also tipped that One Nation’s support would fall while independents would be “the new populists”.
Originally published as Federal Election 2019: Experts tip who will win and who will fall
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