The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: La Trobe, held by Jason Wood

The seat of La Trobe is “up for grabs” when voters head to the polls, with Liberal MP Jason Wood facing an uphill battle to reclaim his seat.

La Trobe

Incumbent: Jason Wood

Margin: Liberal 3.5 per cent

Candidates:

Liberal: Jason Wood

Labor: Simon Curtis

Local issues:
Jobs, the economy, cost of living pressures, infrastructure, health and education. Climate change could be also be an issue for voters in the north parts of the electorate which are more left-leaning.

NOTHING GUARANTEED

La Trobe is “up for grabs” when voters head to the polls in May, with Liberal MP Jason Wood facing an uphill battle to reclaim his seat.

But Labor is far from guaranteed a win in the outer Melbourne electorate.

That’s despite the fact the Liberals have a margin of just 3.5 per cent and there is likely to be a swing against the government.

Wood, a former policeman, claimed 42.2 per cent of the primary vote in 2016 compared to Labor’s Simon Curtis, who won 31.37 per cent.

But preference flows to Labor meant he only narrowly won the seat by 2701 votes.

THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN VICTORIA:

CORANGAMITE: Trouble ahead for Libs

CHISHOLM: Banks exit could determine result

DEAKIN: Sukkar’s seat could go either way

FLINDERS: The ugly fight of the federal election

HIGGINS: Wentworth-style battle for O’Dwyer’s seat

INDI: Will McGowan’s seat stay independent?

KOOYONG: Frydenberg under pressure

LA TROBE: Seat set to go to preferences again

MACNAMARA: ‘Anything can happen’ in Danby’s old seat

MALLEE: Nats face fight aftyer ‘Sugar Baby’ scandal

Labor’s Simon Curtis is in the running.

Jason Wood faces a battle to keep La Trobe.

While a recent redistribution has made the seat safer for the Liberal party, pushing its margin from 1.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent, Wood will be open to negative campaigns about his support for Peter Dutton in the leadership spill against Malcolm Turnbull in August.

“This will be touch and go. It could go either way,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp.

But Australian National University political expert Jill Sheppard noted Wood might hold on thanks to his solid knowledge of the community.

“La Trobe flies under the radar with regard to its importance,” Dr Sheppard said.

“Neither major party sends its strongest candidates to the electorate. Accordingly, it remains up for grabs.

“Jason Wood has succeeded in navigating the electorate’s Green-centric north and its deeply conservative south, but as long as he remains on the backbench he will have to justify his hold on the seat to both Liberal branch members and voters generally.”

Dr Jill Sheppard says Jason Wood has a solid knowledge of the community.

Griffith University political scientist Dr Paul Williams said the seat “could go either way”.

Labor sources acknowledge Wood is a strong candidate but are also confident after swings towards the party in the Victorian state election, when federal factors such as Turnbull’s ousting were at play.

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras predicted Labor would win La Trobe.

It’s unclear how the Liberals in principle preference deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will play out in the seat.

HOT TOPICS IN LATROBE: IMMIGRATION, INFRASTRUCTURE, HEALTH

Health funding, road and other infrastructure upgrades will be key issues for voters in La Trobe.

Scott Morrison’s plan to cap Australia’s immigration rate at 160,000 also seems to have caught voters’ attention, a social media analysis by News Corp and Storyful Australia shows.

Liberal MP Jason Wood has gained a strong reaction from punters on his official Facebook with posts about a new bulk billing MRI machine for St John of God Berwick, the Coalition’s immigration cap, funding injections for local roads and banning cosmetic testing on animals.

His Labor opponent Simon Curtis has also had traction with posts about an $850 million commitment for road upgrades in Melbourne’s south-east and the party’s plan to protect penalty rates.

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN VICTORIA

Monash University Political Scientist Dr Zareh Ghazarian says issues within Victoria’s state Liberal party could spill over as people decide who they will vote for federally.

“Voters tend to be aware of the difference between state and federal governments and party leaders, so we would expect them to vote on what federal Labor has promised rather than their experience of the Andrews government,” he said.

However the bitter public divisions within Victorian Liberals since last November’s election loss would not endear them to voters, he said, and that instability — coupled with similar ructions at the federal level — “will play a big role in deciding who people vote for”.

Dr Ghazarian says infrastructure, the economy and employment will be the issues residents want to hear about pre-election.

Dr Zareh Ghazarian, Lecturer in Politics, School of Political and Social Inquiry at Monash University.

“The trend in opinion polls over the last few months has been showing a swing towards the Labor Party. This means that any Liberal MP who holds their seat with a margin of five per cent or less is in for a hard time to keep their job,” he said.

“There is also a complication at this election. The Electoral Commission has undertaken a major redistribution of federal seats which has resulted in at least two Victorian seats currently held by the Liberal Party to be notionally Labor (ie. if the seat boundary was used at the 2016 election, Labor would have won it).”

Dr Ghazarian said because of this key seats Corangamite and Dunkley are deemed to be notionally Labor so both sitting MPs will be starting from a disadvantage.

“We would expect the Liberal Party to pour in resources and campaigning staff into these two seats in order to hold them. If it can’t hold these seats, the party will not be able to hold government,” he said.

Dr Ghazarian expects whoever takes Chisholm will win government.

“It is very difficult for individual MPs to resist a swing and, if it is as strong as opinion polls have suggested, these ultra marginal seats will be the first to go on election night,” he said.

— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian