The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Higgins, held by Liberal Kelly O’Dwyer
It’s been wrapped in a blue ribbon for 70 years, but political experts have warned the Liberal Party’s safe seat of Higgins could turn red - or even green - at the federal election.
Federal Election
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Higgins
Incumbent: Kelly O’Dwyer (retiring)
Margin: 8 per cent
Candidates:
Liberal: Katie Allen, a paediatrician researching evolving food allergies. Allen unsuccessfully ran for the Liberals in the state seat of Prahran in 2018.
Greens: Jason Ball, a BeyondBlue ambassador, LGBTI activist and football player
Labor: Fiona McLeod, a barrister and former president of the Law Council of Australia
Local issues:
Economic management, negative gearing, the retiree tax, climate change, health, law and order, local infrastructure.
A THREE-WAY BATTLE
Higgins will be a “must watch” seat after senior Liberal minister Kelly O’Dwyer declared she was quitting politics.
Labor clearly believes it has a shot at Higgins at this election despite never having won the wealthy inner south-east Melbourne seat it its 70-year history.
THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN VICTORIA:
CORANGAMITE: Trouble ahead for Libs
CHISHOLM: Banks exit could determine result
DEAKIN: Sukkar’s seat in Labor’s sights
FLINDERS: The ugly fight of the federal election
INDI: Will McGowan’s seat stay independent?
KOOYONG: Frydenberg under pressure
LA TROBE: Seat set to go to preferences again
MACNAMARA: ‘Anything can happen’ in Danby’s old seat
MALLEE: Nats face fight after ‘sugar baby‘ scandal
The ALP took the extraordinary step of dumping its candidate, former political staffer Josh Spiegel, to parachute in star candidate Fiona McLeod two months out from the election.
The barrister and former president of the Law Council of Australia will take on O’Dwyer’s successor, paediatrician Katie Allen.
Griffith University political expert Paul Williams believes both Labor and the Greens have a chance of claiming the blue-ribbon seat once held by former prime ministers Harold Holt and John Gorton, despite the Liberals holding it with a reasonably safe margin of 8 per cent.
“This is technically fairly safe for the Liberals but it’s not unlike Wentworth - wealthy voters looking to the sensible centre,” Dr Williams said.
“The Greens are just as likely to win this seat as Labor - it will depend on which party finishes second after the Libs.
“The sitting MP’s departure will hurt the Libs’ primary vote but the party will probably hold on, despite Get Up! also targeting here.”
Dr Allen is considered the favourite to win Higgins but the outcome is far from assured, particularly given the state Greens claimed the seat of Prahran at the 2018 Victorian election with a 10.6 per cent swing against the Libs.
The federal Greens are running mental health and LGBTI activist and football player Jason Ball, who claimed 25.33 per cent of the primary vote at the 2016 election, compared to Labor’s 14.95 per cent.
O’Dwyer nabbed a massive 52 per cent of the primary vote and after preferences won the seat by 57.99 per cent.
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras also predicted the Liberals would retain Higgins.
HIGGINS HOT TOPICS: RETIREES, WOMEN IN POLITICS, CLIMATE CHANGE
Labor’s so-called retiree tax, women in politics and climate change will be key issues in the three-way battle for Higgins.
A social media analysis by Storyful Australia and News Corp shows Liberal candidate Katie Allen is campaigning hard against Labor’s plan to axe tax refunds for franking credits.
She is also gaining traction on social media with posts calling for less red tape for small businesses, a more equal stake for women in “our society and our economy” and even action on climate change.
The Greens’ Jason Ball has had a good response with posts attacking the major parties over support for coal and calling for action on climate change.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN VICTORIA
Monash University Political Scientist Dr Zareh Ghazarian says issues within Victoria’s state Liberal party could spill over as people decide who they will vote for federally.
“Voters tend to be aware of the difference between state and federal governments and party leaders, so we would expect them to vote on what federal Labor has promised rather than their experience of the Andrews government,” he said.
However the bitter public divisions within Victorian Liberals since last November’s election loss would not endear them to voters, he said, and that instability - coupled with similar ructions at the federal level - “will play a big role in deciding who people vote for”.
Dr Ghazarian says infrastructure, the economy and employment will be the issues residents want to hear about pre-election.
“The trend in opinion polls over the last few months has been showing a swing towards the Labor Party. This means that any Liberal MP who holds their seat with a margin of five per cent or less is in for a hard time to keep their job,” he said.
“There is also a complication at this election. The Electoral Commission has undertaken a major redistribution of federal seats which has resulted in at least two Victorian seats currently held by the Liberal Party to be notionally Labor (ie. if the seat boundary was used at the 2016 election, Labor would have won it).”
Dr Ghazarian said because of this key seats Corrangamite and Dunkley are deemed to be notionally Labor so both sitting MPs will be starting from a disadvantage.
“We would expect the Liberal Party to pour in resources and campaigning staff into these two seats in order to hold them. If it can’t hold these seats, the party will not be able to hold government,” he said.
Dr Ghazarian expects whoever takes Chisholm will win government.
“It is very difficult for individual MPs to resist a swing and, if it is as strong as opinion polls have suggested, these ultra marginal seats will be the first to go on election night,” he said.
- Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
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