The seats to watch in the federal election: Macnamara, currently held by retiring MP Michael Danby

Macnamara - formerly Melbourne Ports - will be a genuine three-way battle at the 2019 election. Could Labor lose one of its long-held bastions?

Macnamara

Incumbent: Michael Danby (retiring)

Margin: 1.2 per cent

Candidates:

Liberal: Kate Ashmor, a lawyer and small business owner

Labor: Josh Burns, a former staffer for Danby

Greens: Steph Hodgins-May

Local issues:
Education, cost of living, climate change, jobs, health, energy policy.

‘THE ONLY GENUINE THREE-WAY CONTEST IN THE COUNTRY’

Macnamara will be a hard-fought three-way battle between the Liberals, Labor and the Greens where “anything could happen”.

Incumbent Labor MP Michael Danby is retiring, which will open up the Greens and Liberals’ chances even further.

“This seat, the former Melbourne Ports, is probably the only genuinely three-corner contest left in the country,” Australian National University political expert Jill Sheppard told News Corp.

“But it’s not a contest between Liberal, National, and Labor; it’s between Liberal, Labor, and Greens,” Dr Sheppard said.

“This seat is the country’s best example of the fact that politics are not always left-right.

“Sometimes, like here, they split on religious (Judaism versus agnostic), economics (strongly conservative versus progressive), and social (very progressive versus religiously conservative) lines.

“Macnamara voters are not like normal Australian voters, so anything could happen.”

THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN VICTORIA:

CORANGAMITE: Trouble ahead for Libs

CHISHOLM: Banks exit could determine result

DEAKIN: Sukkar’s seat could go either way

FLINDERS: The ugly fight of the federal election

HIGGINS: Wentworth-style battle for O’Dwyer’s seat

INDI: Will McGowan’s seat stay independent?

KOOYONG: Frydenberg under pressure

LA TROBE: Seat set to go to preferences again

MALLEE: Nats face fight after ‘sugar baby‘ scandal

Australian National University politics expert Dr Jill Sheppard said the seat was a contest between Labor, Liberal and the Greens. Picture: ANU

Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham said Macnamara said Danby’s retirement would cost Labor.

Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham said Macnamara was “one of Labor’s most at-risk seats.”

“Labor will be losing a big personal vote,” he said.

“Whether there’s any hope for the Liberals ... after what you saw at the state election you might doubt it.”

Both the Liberal and Labor candidates have Jewish heritage which will go over well in the seat where about 10 per cent of voters are Jewish.

Liberal candidate Kate Ashmor.

Josh Burns is Labor's candidate.

The Liberals came close at the 2016 election, with candidate Owen Guest picking up 41.9 per cent of the vote.

Danby only won the inner south Melbourne seat by 51.38 per cent thanks to preference flows.

The Labor MP picked up 27 per cent of the primary vote while The Greens’ Steph Hodgins-May won 23.79 per cent.

Despite a very slight reduction in Labor’s margin from 1.38 per cent to 1.2 in a recent redistribution, other experts have tipped the party will likely reclaim the seat.

“This is a notionally very marginal Labor seat. But given the Libs’ dire problems in Victoria, this should be an easy win for Labor,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said.

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, also predicted Labor would win the seat.

Greens candidate Steph Hodgins-May. Picture: Stuart McEvoy for The Australian

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN VICTORIA

Monash University Political Scientist Dr Zareh Ghazarian says issues within Victoria’s state Liberal party could spill over as people decide who they will vote for federally.

“Voters tend to be aware of the difference between state and federal governments and party leaders, so we would expect them to vote on what federal Labor has promised rather than their experience of the Andrews government,” he said.

Dr Zareh Ghazarian, Lecturer in Politics at Monash University.

However the bitter public divisions within Victorian Liberals since last November’s election loss would not endear them to voters, he said, and that instability - coupled with similar ructions at the federal level - “will play a big role in deciding who people vote for”.

Dr Ghazarian says infrastructure, the economy and employment will be the issues residents want to hear about pre-election.

“The trend in opinion polls over the last few months has been showing a swing towards the Labor Party. This means that any Liberal MP who holds their seat with a margin of five per cent or less is in for a hard time to keep their job,” he said.

“There is also a complication at this election. The Electoral Commission has undertaken a major redistribution of federal seats which has resulted in at least two Victorian seats currently held by the Liberal Party to be notionally Labor (ie. if the seat boundary was used at the 2016 election, Labor would have won it).”

Dr Ghazarian said because of this key seats Corangamite and Dunkley are deemed to be notionally Labor so both sitting MPs will be starting from a disadvantage.

“We would expect the Liberal Party to pour in resources and campaigning staff into these two seats in order to hold them. If it can’t hold these seats, the party will not be able to hold government,” he said.

Dr Ghazarian expects whoever takes Chisholm will win government.

“It is very difficult for individual MPs to resist a swing and, if it is as strong as opinion polls have suggested, these ultra marginal seats will be the first to go on election night,” he said.

- Additional reporting by Natasha Christian