The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Deakin, held by Michael Sukkar

Liberal MP Michael Sukkar is in real danger of losing Deakin, with analysts saying his backing of Peter Dutton in the leadership spill against Malcolm Turnbull could prove costly.

Deakin

Incumbent: Michael Sukkar

Margin: 6.3 per cent

Candidates:

Liberal: Michael Sukkar

Labor: Shireen Morris

Local issues:

Cost of living, education, health, the economy.

STATE SWINGS PUT SEAT IN PLAY

Deakin has become a “line ball” electorate where Liberal MP Michael Sukkar is in real danger of losing his seat.

It should be fairly “safe” on a margin of 6.3 per cent.

So when Bill Shorten opted to launch his 2019 election campaign from the Deakin suburb of Mitcham today, it was a bold statement that Labor is coming for traditional Liberal strongholds.

ABC political commentator Annabel Crabb described it thus: “Bill Shorten kicking off his campaign in the seat of Deakin is the campaign equivalent of walking into Scott Morrison’s house and grabbing a beer from the fridge.”

Labor’s Shireen Morris could pick up the eastern Melbourne suburbs seat, particularly if swings of almost 10 per cent in Ringwood and 7.4 per cent in Croydon at the 2018 state election are reappear at the federal poll in May.

Sukkar will be open to attacks over backing Peter Dutton in the leadership spill to oust Malcolm Turnbull.

THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN VICTORIA:

CORANGAMITE: Trouble ahead for Libs

CHISHOLM: Banks exit could determine result

FLINDERS: The ugly fight of the federal election

HIGGINS: Wentworth-style battle for O’Dwyer’s seat

INDI: Will McGowan’s seat stay independent?

KOOYONG: Frydenberg under pressure

LA TROBE: Seat set to go to preferences again

MACNAMARA: ‘Anything can happen’ in Danby’s old seat

MALLEE: Nats face fight after ‘sugar baby‘ scandal

Voters could punish incumbent Liberal MP Michael Sukkar after he supported Peter Dutton at last year’s leadership spill. Picture: Hamish Blair

Left-wing activist group GetUp! put him on its conservative MP “hit list” earlier this year, although its key targets will be Dutton and Tony Abbott.

Griffith University political expert Paul Williams described Deakin as “line ball”.

“Its margin is at the upper end of the probable swing in Victoria,” Dr Williams told News Corp. “It could go either way.”

Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham described Deakin as “a bit wobbly”.

Labor candidate for Deakin, Dr Shireen Morris.

He cautioned against using state results to predict federal elections, however, and noted that voters “may have let off steam” about the federal government at the state election.

He also said Sukkar had “a few liabilities” from backing Dutton.

In 2016, Sukkar claimed a massive 50.03 per cent of the primary vote to defeat Labor’s Tony Clark.

Clark won 31 per cent of the primary vote but preferences flows narrowed the gap to put two-party preferred vote at 55.7 to 44.3 per cent.

Griffith University political expert Paul Williams describes Deakin as “line ball”. Picture: Supplied

Morris, a constitutional law expert, will strongly back Labor’s campaign for an indigenous voice to parliament after working in that space.

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, predicted the Liberals would retain the seat.

DEAKIN HOT TOPICS: PARKS, SCHOOLS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

New car parks, local park upgrades, new school facilities and other infrastructure commitments are the key issues striking a cord with Deakin voters.

The East West Link, Labor’s so-called retiree tax and restoring weekend penalty rates are other issues cutting through with voters in the traditional Liberal stronghold in Melbourne’s east.

A social media analysis by Storyful Australia of Liberal Michael Sukkar and Labor’s Shireen Morris shows punters are reacting most strongly online to any commitments or concerns about local infrastructure.

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN VICTORIA

Monash University Political Scientist Dr Zareh Ghazarian says issues within Victoria’s state Liberal party could spill over as people decide who they will vote for federally.

“Voters tend to be aware of the difference between state and federal governments and party leaders, so we would expect them to vote on what federal Labor has promised rather than their experience of the Andrews government,” he said.

However the bitter public divisions within Victorian Liberals since last November’s election loss would not endear them to voters, he said, and that instability - coupled with similar ructions at the federal level - “will play a big role in deciding who people vote for”.

Dr Zareh Ghazarian says state issues could spill over as people decide who to vote for federally. Picture: Supplied

Dr Ghazarian says infrastructure, the economy and employment will be the issues residents want to hear about pre-election.

“The trend in opinion polls over the last few months has been showing a swing towards the Labor Party. This means that any Liberal MP who holds their seat with a margin of five per cent or less is in for a hard time to keep their job,” he said.

“There is also a complication at this election. The Electoral Commission has undertaken a major redistribution of federal seats which has resulted in at least two Victorian seats currently held by the Liberal Party to be notionally Labor (ie. if the seat boundary was used at the 2016 election, Labor would have won it).”

Dr Ghazarian said because of this key seats Corangamite and Dunkley are deemed to be notionally Labor so both sitting MPs will be starting from a disadvantage.

“We would expect the Liberal Party to pour in resources and campaigning staff into these two seats in order to hold them. If it can’t hold these seats, the party will not be able to hold government,” he said.

Dr Ghazarian expects whoever takes Chisholm will win government.

“It is very difficult for individual MPs to resist a swing and, if it is as strong as opinion polls have suggested, these ultra marginal seats will be the first to go on election night,” he said.

- Additional reporting by Natasha Christian