The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Flinders, held by Greg Hunt

Flinders is set to be one of the most vicious fights of the election as Health Minister Greg Hunt battles to hold his seat against his former Liberal colleague Julia Banks.

Flinders

Incumbent: Greg Hunt

Margin: 7.2 per cent

Candidates:

Liberal: Greg Hunt

Independent: Julia Banks

Labor: Josh Sinclair

Local issues:

Banks will put climate change, energy policy, asylum seekers and equal representation for women on the agenda. Health care, cost of living, local infrastructure, jobs and education will also be key.

BAD BLOOD

Flinders is set to be one of the most vicious fights of the election as Health Minister Greg Hunt battles to hold his seat against his former Liberal colleague Julia Banks.

The bad blood simmering beneath the surface of the Liberal Party after Malcolm Turnbull was ousted in 2018 will be on full display, with the former prime minister’s son Alex already confirming he will help Banks’ campaign.

Hunt backed Peter Dutton in his bid to become Prime Minister last August, while Banks was one of Turnbull’s most loyal supporters.

THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN VICTORIA:

CORANGAMITE: Trouble ahead for Libs

CHISHOLM: Banks exit could determine result

DEAKIN: Sukkar’s seat could go either way

HIGGINS: Wentworth-style battle for O’Dwyer’s seat

INDI: Will McGowan’s seat stay independent?

KOOYONG: Frydenberg under pressure

LA TROBE: Seat set to go to preferences again

MACNAMARA: ‘Anything can happen’ in Danby’s old seat

MALLEE: Nats face fight after ‘sugar baby‘ scandal

Health Minister Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders is set to be one of the most vicious fights of the election. Picture: AAP

The Health Minister, who has held the Mornington Peninsula seat for nearly two decades, will be vulnerable to attacks over his role in the coup and wider issues that Banks has attacked since quitting the Liberals, such as the party’s treatment of women and its handling of climate change and energy policy.

Banks will also be vulnerable over her decision to defect to the crossbench in November and to leave her current seat of Chisholm to contest Flinders.

It will take a mammoth effort to unseat Hunt though, given he has held the seat since 2001 and claimed 51.6 per cent of the primary vote in 2016.

Banks will need to claim more votes than Labor to even be in a position to challenge Hunt and the ALP scored 27 per cent of the primary vote at the last election.

Liberal-turned-Independent Julia Banks will present Mr Hunt with a challenge, but experts predict he will hold on. Picture: Kym Smith

It’s likely she will split the Liberal vote.

It still might not be enough to boost Labor’s candidate Josh Sinclair across the line.

But the ALP is hopeful it could claim the seat after a swing of 10 per cent against the Liberals on the Mornington Peninsula at the Victorian state election.

Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said Flinders had become slightly less safe for the Liberals thanks to a redistribution but he predicted the party would still win.

“The nomination of Julia Banks will make this interesting,” Dr Williams said.

“It is ripe for a popular independent but Hunt will probably hold on.”

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras also predicted the Liberals would retain Flinders.

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN VICTORIA

Monash University Political Scientist Dr Zareh Ghazarian says issues within Victoria’s state Liberal party could spill over as people decide who they will vote for federally.

“Voters tend to be aware of the difference between state and federal governments and party leaders, so we would expect them to vote on what federal Labor has promised rather than their experience of the Andrews government,” he said.

However the bitter public divisions within Victorian Liberals since last November’s election loss would not endear them to voters, he said, and that instability - coupled with similar ructions at the federal level - “will play a big role in deciding who people vote for”.

Dr Ghazarian says infrastructure, the economy and employment will be the issues residents want to hear about pre-election.

Dr Zareh Ghazarian says the bitter divisions within Victorian Liberals since last November’s election loss will not endear them to voters. Picture: Supplied

“The trend in opinion polls over the last few months has been showing a swing towards the Labor Party. This means that any Liberal MP who holds their seat with a margin of five per cent or less is in for a hard time to keep their job,” he said.

“There is also a complication at this election. The Electoral Commission has undertaken a major redistribution of federal seats which has resulted in at least two Victorian seats currently held by the Liberal Party to be notionally Labor (ie. if the seat boundary was used at the 2016 election, Labor would have won it).”

Dr Ghazarian said because of this key seats Corangamite and Dunkley are deemed to be notionally Labor so both sitting MPs will be starting from a disadvantage.

“We would expect the Liberal Party to pour in resources and campaigning staff into these two seats in order to hold them. If it can’t hold these seats, the party will not be able to hold government,” he said.

Dr Ghazarian expects whoever takes Chisholm will win government.

“It is very difficult for individual MPs to resist a swing and, if it is as strong as opinion polls have suggested, these ultra marginal seats will be the first to go on election night,” he said.

- Additional reporting by Natasha Christian