The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Race for Indi on as Cathy McGowan retires

With Cathy McGowan resigning, Indi will be a fiercely fought contest. Her independent successor faces an uphill battle to keep the seat out of Liberal and National hands.

Indi

Incumbent: Cathy McGowan (retiring)

Margin: 4.83 per cent

Candidates:

Independent: Dr Helen Haines

Liberal: Steve Martin

Nationals: Mark Byatt

Labor: Eric Kerr

Local issues:
Cost of living, health, education, the economy, infrastructure.

FIERCE BATTLE LOOMS OVER INDI

Indi will be a fiercely fought contest between independent Helen Haines, the Liberals and the Nationals.

Current independent member Cathy McGowan is retiring from politics after claiming the seat from Liberal Sophie Mirabella in 2013.

She’s nominated Haines as her successor and McGowan’s strong profile in the seat and dedicated campaign team will help the local midwife fight the party machines of the Nats and Liberals.

THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN VICTORIA:

CORANGAMITE: Trouble ahead for Libs

CHISHOLM: Banks exit could determine result

DEAKIN: Sukkar’s seat could go either way

FLINDERS: The ugly fight of the federal election

HIGGINS: Wentworth-style battle for O’Dwyer’s seat

KOOYONG: Frydenberg under pressure

LA TROBE: Seat set to go to preferences again

MACNAMARA: ‘Anything can happen’ in Danby’s old seat

MALLEE: Nats face fight after ‘sugar baby‘ scandal

Outgoing Indi Independent MP Cathy McGowan has endorsed Independent candidate Dr Helen Haines. Picture: Rachel Baxendale

The Liberals will run Wodonga engineer Steve Martin, making his first tilt at the seat, while the Nationals will run former Wodonga mayor Mark Byatt, who has the stronger local profile.

Labor hasn’t won the seat since the 1970s so it will be an almost impossible ask for the party’s candidate Eric Kerr, who only claimed 9.79 per cent of the primary vote in 2016.

“Indi will be a must watch seat in Vic given McGowan’s retirement,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said.

“The Libs have to win this back to remain competitive nationally but the strong independent already endorsed by McGowan will be hard to defeat.”

Former Wodonga mayor Mark Byatt will run as the Liberal candidate. Picture: Supplied

Liberal candidate for Indi Steve Martin with his children. Picture: Aaron Francis

Dr Williams added that the Nationals running would also “further damage the Libs’ primary vote. “

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras predicted the Liberals would win.

“I give the Liberal candidate a 60 per cent chance and the Independent 40 per cent,” Mr Mackerras said.

“My reason there is history. There is no case ever of an independent in the House of Reps being succeeded by another Independent.

“With Sophie Mirabella no longer the Liberal candidate the incentive to vote against the Liberal Party is much reduced.”

Griffith University political expert Dr Paul Williams says Independent candidate Dr Helen Haines will be hard to beat. Picture: Supplied

Australian National University politics expert Dr Jill Sheppard is looking forward to seeing whether Dr Haines adopted a McGowan-esque campaign approach. Picture: ANU

Australian National University political expert Jill Sheppard said Ms McGowan’s Voices for Indi group had been instrumental in the rise of other strong independent candidates in other electorates, such as Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth.

“One of the most interesting things about Cathy McGowan’s candidacy and time in parliament was that she and her supporters shared information about everything they did, in stark contrast to the major parties,” Dr Sheppard said.

“I look forward to seeing if the Helen Haines campaign maintains this approach. The Voices for Indi group has been instrumental in co-ordinating and encouraging other independent candidates across the country.”

INDI HOT TOPICS: INFRASTRUCTURE, INTERNET AND HEALTH SERVICES

Local infrastructure, regional internet and phone reception quality and health services will be key issues in the fight for Indi.

Voters are reacting most strongly to candidates social media posts about infrastructure commitments for the sprawling regional Victoria seat, an analysis by Storyful Australia and News Corp shows.

It also shows Liberal candidate Steve Martin is having more traction online than his opponents, the Nationals Mark Byatt and independent Helen Haines.

Martin’s posts about new mobile black spot towers for Indi and a commitment to fund a business case for a fast rail between Melbourne and Wodonga have gained the biggest responses on Facebook.

Haines has mostly refrained from posting about policy on her official Facebook page but has indicated she is campaigning for greater access to public mental health services in rural areas and aged care packages targeted to regional locations.

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN VICTORIA

Monash University Political Scientist Dr Zareh Ghazarian says issues within Victoria’s state Liberal party could spill over as people decide who they will vote for federally.

“Voters tend to be aware of the difference between state and federal governments and party leaders, so we would expect them to vote on what federal Labor has promised rather than their experience of the Andrews government,” he said.

However the bitter public divisions within Victorian Liberals since last November’s election loss would not endear them to voters, he said, and that instability — coupled with similar ructions at the federal level — “will play a big role in deciding who people vote for”.

Dr Ghazarian says infrastructure, the economy and employment will be the issues residents want to hear about pre-election.

Monash University Political Scientist Dr Zareh Ghazarian expects whoever takes the seat of Chisholm will win government. Picture: Supplied

“The trend in opinion polls over the last few months has been showing a swing towards the Labor Party. This means that any Liberal MP who holds their seat with a margin of five per cent or less is in for a hard time to keep their job,” he said.

“There is also a complication at this election. The Electoral Commission has undertaken a major redistribution of federal seats which has resulted in at least two Victorian seats currently held by the Liberal Party to be notionally Labor (eg, if the seat boundary was used at the 2016 election, Labor would have won it).”

Dr Ghazarian said because of this key seats Corangamite and Dunkley are deemed to be notionally Labor so both sitting MPs will be starting from a disadvantage.

“We would expect the Liberal Party to pour in resources and campaigning staff into these two seats in order to hold them. If it can’t hold these seats, the party will not be able to hold government,” he said.

Dr Ghazarian expects whoever takes Chisholm will win government.

“It is very difficult for individual MPs to resist a swing and, if it is as strong as opinion polls have suggested, these ultra marginal seats will be the first to go on election night,” he said.

— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian