The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Wentworth, held by Kerryn Phelps
Kerryn Phelps’s historic victory over the Liberals at last year’s Wentworth by-election rocked Australian politics, but analysts are divided over her chances of retaining the seat.
Federal Election
Don't miss out on the headlines from Federal Election. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Wentworth
Incumbent: Kerryn Phelps
Margin: 1.2 per cent
Candidates
Independent: Kerryn Phelps
Liberal: Dave Sharma
Greens: Dominic Wy Kanak
Labor: Tim Murray
Local issues
Climate change, refugees, Malcolm Turnbull’s ousting, the economy, negative gearing, retiree tax.
LIBS DESPERATE TO RECLAIM PRIZE SEAT
Independent Kerryn Phelps’s battle to retain Wentworth with the Liberal party gunning to reclaim it will be one of the must-watch fights of the election.
The Liberals are desperate to reclaim the longstanding conservative stronghold after the October 2018 by-election where they suffered a massive 19.2 per cent swing against them as voters vented their anger about Malcolm Turnbull’s ousting.
The leadership spill, and the perception of Liberal infighting, will still play a part in the election but it’s unclear whether anger about Turnbull’s ousting will have faded.
THE SEATS TO WATCH IN NEW SOUTH WALES:
BANKS: Coleman’s seat will come down to the wire
COWPER: Nationals nemesis set to strike again
EDEN-MONARO: ‘Bellwether’ seat could change forever
GILMORE: Scandal-plagued seat on a knife edge
LINDSAY: Husar could hurt Labor in Lindsay
NEW ENGLAND: Joyce facing “enormous” swing
ROBERTSON: How Liberals could lose twice
WARRINGAH: Pollsters predict Abbott victory
The medevac laws Phelps helped pass will also be a big election talking point nationally as Prime Minister Scott Morrison uses it to attack Labor over border protection.
But it’s unclear how it will play in Wentworth. It is notable that Liberal candidate Dave Sharma is taking a much softer approach to the matter than his party.
Sharma has navigated the issue by saying the government’s policy is more “compassionate” than Phelps’s.
Experts are divided on whether the former Australian Medical Association president can win back her seat.
“This is a must-watch seat,” Griffith University politics expert Paul Williams told News Corp.
“I suspect it will defy the case of Ryan in 2001 when that safe Liberal seat was briefly won by Labor at a by-election only to return to the Libs months later at the general election,” he said.
“Wentworth is different. Voters there are still stinging over Turnbull’s dumping and a popular centrist independent holds it, not a major party. Phelps should hang on and may get a small swing to her. “
Australian National University’s Dr Jill Sheppard also tipped Dr Phelps to return.
“Kerryn Phelps typifies the current rush of prominent independent candidates: smart, economically conservative, socially liberal, and with a high profile that precedes their political career,” the politics expert said.
“If Wentworth voters believe that Phelps is an improvement on electing an automaton Liberal member, there is no reason she will not be returned to the House.”
But veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, said the Liberal’s candidate Dave Sharma was more likely to win.
“I give Dave Sharma a 55 per cent chance while I give Kerryn Phelps a 45 per cent chance,” he told News Corp.
“Wentworth is a case where it is worthwhile quoting swing figures. Based on the by-election held on 20 October 2018, Sharma needs a swing of 1.3 per cent to take the seat.
“My reason for supposing he will succeed is my knowledge of several Wentworth electors. They voted for Phelps at the by-election to punish the Liberal Party for dumping Turnbull. My guess is that they will vote Liberal in May 2019.”
It’s unclear how the Liberals’ in principle preference deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will play out in the seat.
WHAT VOTERS WANT
Climate change, the controversial medevac asylum seeker law and anger at the major parties will be key factors for voters in Wentworth.
The government’s response to the banking royal commission and getting more women into politics also look to be issues, a social media analysis by Storyful Australia and News Corp shows.
Phelps’s posts about renewable energy and climate change are getting some of the biggest reactions among the posts on her official Facebook page.
Other posts about women in politics and the behaviour of major party MPs are also getting traction.
Sharma has a smaller online presence but posts about protecting Wentworth beaches and supporting the mortgage broking industry following the banking royal commission recommendations also attracted attention.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN NEW SOUTH WALES
New South Wales state and federal issues are far more entwined than ever before, political scientist Dr Mark Rolfe says.
The UNSW social sciences professor said the cost of living issues that dominated the March 23 state election will also happen federally.
“Some of this entwining is due to the concurrent power of both tiers in health and education with the ALP branches especially making plays in what are its strong suits. Abortion now adds to this pressure on the Coalition,” Dr Rolfe said.
“Some of this entwining is also due to issues that don’t fall into the concurrent basket but are linked across the tiers.
“Immigration is a federal responsibility but its effects are in the states, as you know, with Gladys (Berejiklian) wanting a reduction in migrants because of the impact on infrastructure.”
Dr Rolfe said environment and renewables were also issues for both levels, with the “ (Berejiklian) government … attempting to distance itself from ScoMo.”
Dr Rolfe predicted a Labor swing federally.
He said Lucy Wicks (Liberal) in Robertson is on a knife-edge while Labor’s Emma McBride is looking to hold Dobell.
He was also watching Riverina closely, held by Nationals leader Michael McCormack.
“He’s on a big buffer but voters there might be restless.”
Federally, he expects the Liberals to have a difficult time and there’s not much they can do to weather it.
“I think the mind of the electorate is mostly made up … They cannot rely anymore on the winning formulae of John Howard; we’re not in Howardland anymore, Dorothy.”
— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
Originally published as The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Wentworth, held by Kerryn Phelps
Parliament House’s tattered Aussie flag replaced after call for action
Less than 24 hours after it was revealed the giant flag flying above Parliament House had fallen into disrepair, it has been replaced.
‘Extremely concerned’: Aussie voters’ big fear revealed
Australians have revealed how they are feeling about the next Federal Election — in particular a plausible outcome about who will lead the country. Have your say in our poll.