The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Lindsay, held by Emma Husar
Emma Husar, who dramatically quit Labor amid bullying allegations, will be the wildcard in the battle for Lindsay even after bowing out of the race.
Lindsay
Incumbent: Emma Husar
Margin: Labor 1.1 per cent
Candidates:
Labor: Diane Beamer
Liberal: Melissa McIntosh
Local issues:
Cost of living, congestion, local infrastructure, energy policy, border protection.
LIBERALS NOT RULED OUT IN LINDSAY
Labor MP Emma Husar will be the wildcard in the battle for Lindsay even though she has opted not to run as an independent.
The current Member for Lindsay confirmed in a message to her constituents on the day the election was called that she won’t run again.
But her ousting - and the media storm around it - could damage the party’s chances of winning the seat back.
Husar lost her bid to be re-endorsed as Labor’s candidate after announcing she would quit politics amid the firestorm last year over staff bullying allegations, which she firmly rejected.
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She changed her mind and decided to run again after an investigation cleared her of some of the claims but the party opted to preselect former NSW state politician Diane Beamer instead.
Labor is expected to benefit from a national swing against the government.
But Liberals are also buoyed by the NSW state election result - and their eyes are on Lindsay in particular.
They could also benefit from a preference deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said Lindsay was a very marginal seat that Labor should hold but added “the publicity around Emma Husar could hurt Labor”.
He predicted the western Sydney voters would follow the national swing to Labor over cost of living issues.
Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham predicted the Liberals could have a chance in Lindsay.
“The Liberals will be looking for the odd seat here and there that they can gain,” he said.
“That’s one they might have some sort of hope in.”
But Dr Bonham didn’t rule out Labor keeping the seat.
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, also predicted Labor would retain the seat.
LINDSAY’S HOT BUTTON ISSUES: JOBS, CONGESTION, BORDERS
Jobs, congestion, border protection and clearing up “the chaos in Canberra” will be hot-button issues for Lindsay voters.
Projects such as the North-South Rail link have got punters’ attention online, a social media analysis by Storyful Australia and News Corp shows.
Liberal candidate Melissa McIntosh’s posts on her official Facebook page about local jobs and the rail link project have gained the biggest responses, while the Liberals’ “strong borders” message and environmental funding announcements have also attracted attention.
Posts about health funding, cleaning up “the chaos in Canberra” and preventing the local community from being taken for granted have also seen a response for Labor’s Diane Beamer.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN NEW SOUTH WALES
New South Wales state and federal issues are far more entwined than ever before, political scientist Dr Mark Rolfe says.
The UNSW social sciences professor said the cost of living issues that dominated the March 23 state election will also happen federally.
“Some of this entwining is due to the concurrent power of both tiers in health and education with the ALP branches especially making plays in what are its strong suits. Abortion now adds to this pressure on the Coalition,” Dr Rolfe said.
“Some of this entwining is also due to issues that don’t fall into the concurrent basket but are linked across the tiers.
“Immigration is a federal responsibility but its effects are in the states, as you know, with Gladys (Berejiklian) wanting a reduction in migrants because of the impact on infrastructure.”
Dr Rolfe said environment and renewables were also issues for both levels, with the “(Berejiklian) government … attempting to distance itself from ScoMo.”
Dr Rolfe predicted a Labor swing federally.
He said Lucy Wicks (Liberal) in Robertson is on a knife-edge while Labor’s Emma McBride is looking to hold Dobell.
He was also watching Riverina closely, held by Nationals leader Michael McCormack.
“He’s on a big buffer but voters there might be restless.”
Federally, he expects the Liberals to have a difficult time and there’s not much they can do to weather it.
“I think the mind of the electorate is mostly made up … They cannot rely anymore on the winning formulae of John Howard; we’re not in Howardland anymore, Dorothy.”
- Additional reporting by Natahsa Christian
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