The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Eden-Monaro, held by Mike Kelly
The seat of Eden-Monaro, which up until 2016 always mirrored the national mood in its voting, could be set to break out of its old mould altogether this election. Here’s why.
Eden-Monaro
Incumbent: Mike Kelly
Margin: 3 per cent
Candidates
Labor: Mike Kelly
Liberal: Fiona Kotvojs
Greens: Patrick McGinlay
Independent: David Sheldon
Independent: Andrew Thaler
Nationals: Sophie Wade
Local issues:
Cost of living pressures, energy, small business and farming issues.
A SEAT IN TRANSITION
Eden-Monaro could turn from a traditional bellwether seat to a “fairly safe” seat this election.
The regional NSW electorate overturned almost five decades of precedent at the 2016 election when it was won by the party that eventually became the opposition, rather than government.
The seat, on the outskirts of Canberra and stretching down the NSW south coast, had been considered a bellwether since 1971 until Labor’s Mike Kelly won it at the last federal poll.
And while the contest this time is still likely to be tight, experts are predicting Kelly will edge in front due to a general swing expected against the Coalition.
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“Kelly has been a strong local MP and strong frontbencher. His seat will probably move from marginal to fairly safe after this poll,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said.
Australian National University political expert Jill Sheppard said Eden-Monaro voters had benefited from the seat’s bellwether status but noted “far too much attention” was paid to the seat on election night.
“The electorate itself is extraordinarily complex, with beachfront, regional centres, and full scale farms,” Dr Sheppard said.
“While we might not be able to predict the overall election result based on the Eden-Monaro result anymore, what holds is that the electorate always elects extraordinarily well qualified MPs. Most rural electorates would kill for this level of attention and … quality candidates from both sides.”
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, predicted Labor would claim the seat.
In 2016, Liberals MP Peter Hendy claimed 41.34 per cent of the primary vote, while Kelly won 41.88 per cent. Preference flows to Labor got him across the line.
This time, the Liberals will run Dr Fiona Kotvojs, a beef farmer and small businesswoman, who has also worked to design and manage Australian foreign aid programs in the Asia-Pacific.
WHAT VOTERS WANT
The controversial refugee medevac laws and Labor’s “retiree tax” is striking a nerve with voters in Eden-Monaro.
Punters have reacted strongly to Labor candidate Mike Kelly slamming the government’s credibility over border security warnings about the medevac laws, according to a social media analysis by Storyful Australia.
His claim that tax refunds for franking credits are “too costly” for the budget bottom line has also had some traction.
But other Facebook users have responded to Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs’s criticism of the policy, slamming Labor for “robbing the hardworking and thrifty who have invested so that they don’t need support from taxpayers”.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN NEW SOUTH WALES
New South Wales state and federal issues are far more entwined than ever before, political scientist Dr Mark Rolfe says.
The UNSW social sciences professor said the cost of living issues that dominated the March 23 state election will also happen federally.
“Some of this entwining is due to the concurrent power of both tiers in health and education with the ALP branches especially making plays in what are its strong suits. Abortion now adds to this pressure on the Coalition,” Dr Rolfe said.
“Some of this entwining is also due to issues that don’t fall into the concurrent basket but are linked across the tiers.
“Immigration is a federal responsibility but its effects are in the states, as you know, with Gladys (Berejiklian) wanting a reduction in migrants because of the impact on infrastructure.”
Dr Rolfe said environment and renewables were also issues for both levels, with the “ (Berejiklian) government … attempting to distance itself from ScoMo.”
Dr Rolfe predicted a Labor swing federally.
He said Lucy Wicks (Liberal) in Robertson is on a knife-edge while Labor’s Emma McBride is looking to hold Dobell.
He was also watching Riverina closely, held by Nationals leader Michael McCormack.
“He’s on a big buffer but voters there might be restless.”
Federally, he expects the Liberals to have a difficult time and there’s not much they can do to weather it.
“I think the mind of the electorate is mostly made up … They cannot rely anymore on the winning formulae of John Howard; we’re not in Howardland anymore, Dorothy.”
— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
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