The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Banks, held by David Coleman
David Coleman is one of several Coalition ministers in serious danger of losing their seats at the election, making Banks a key battleground to watch.
Banks
Incumbent: David Coleman
Margin 1.4 per cent
Candidates
Liberal: David Coleman
Labor: Chris Gambian
Greens: Gianluca Dragone
Local issues:
WestConnex motorway, Georges River, local development, the economy, negative gearing, the retiree tax.
KEY ELECTION BATTLEGROUND
David Coleman is one of several Coalition ministers in serious danger of losing their seats, making Banks a key election battleground.
The Immigration Minister is on the unenviable list of ministers in jeopardy along with Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, Attorney-General Christian Porter, Health Minister Greg Hunt and Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt.
With both Labor and the Liberals gunning to claim Banks — which was a Labor stronghold until Coleman won in 2013 — voters can expect to see high-profile MPs from both sides visiting the electorate and local funding announcements.
THE SEATS TO WATCH IN NEW SOUTH WALES:
COWPER: Nationals nemesis set to strike again
EDEN-MONARO: ‘Bellwether’ seat could change forever
GILMORE: Scandal-plagued seat on a knife edge
LINDSAY: Husar could hurt Labor in Lindsay
NEW ENGLAND: Joyce facing “enormous” swing
ROBERTSON: How Liberals could lose twice
WARRINGAH: Pollsters predict Abbott victory
WENTWORTH: Kerryn Phelps could lose Wentworth, say experts
But experts aren’t ruling Coleman out just yet, despite his thin margin of just 1.44 per cent.
It’s also unclear how the Liberals’ preference deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will play out in the seat.
Griffith University politics expert Paul Williams said Coleman would “struggle” given the margin and an expected swing against the Coalition from voters frustrated at cost of living pressures.
“But Coleman’s profile has been raised significantly as Immigration Minister since August,” Dr Williams told News Corp.
He added that Banks and seats like it could see a reaction against Labor’s negative gearing and franking credits policies.
Coleman could also be helped by the Coalition’s attack on Labor over border protection after the medevac bill passed parliament in the first sitting week of the year.
Labor will run Chris Gambian, a former CFMEU official, against Coleman again.
In 2016, Gambian claimed 39.95 per cent of the primary vote to Coleman’s 43.89 per cent. He narrowly missed out on winning the seat by 2588 votes after preference flows.
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, predicted Labor would win several NSW seats from the Coalition, including Banks, Gilmore, Robertson, Page and Reid.
“I expect Labor to take all these seats but would not be surprised if one sitting member held on for local or personal reasons,” he told News Corp.
WHAT VOTERS WANT
Local infrastructure commitments appear to be key issues in the battle for Banks.
Upgrades for netball courts, more parking at local shops and new MRI services for St George Hospital are some of the election promises punters have reacted strongly to on Liberal MP David Coleman’s official Facebook page, a social media analysis by Storyful Australia and News Corp shows.
Health services and local infrastructure commitments have also gotten traction on Labor candidate Chris Gambian’s official page.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN NEW SOUTH WALES
New South Wales state and federal issues are far more entwined than ever before, political scientist Dr Mark Rolfe says.
The UNSW social sciences professor said the cost of living issues that dominated the March 23 state election will also happen federally.
“Some of this entwining is due to the concurrent power of both tiers in health and education with the ALP branches especially making plays in what are its strong suits. Abortion now adds to this pressure on the Coalition,” Dr Rolfe said.
“Some of this entwining is also due to issues that don’t fall into the concurrent basket but are linked across the tiers.
“Immigration is a federal responsibility but its effects are in the states, as you know, with Gladys (Berejiklian) wanting a reduction in migrants because of the impact on infrastructure.”
Dr Rolfe said environment and renewables were also issues for both levels, with the “ (Berejiklian) government … attempting to distance itself from ScoMo.”
Dr Rolfe predicted a Labor swing federally.
He said Lucy Wicks (Liberal) in Robertson is on a knife-edge while Labor’s Emma McBride is looking to hold Dobell.
He was also watching Riverina closely, held by Nationals leader Michael McCormack.
“He’s on a big buffer but voters there might be restless.”
Federally, he expects the Liberals to have a difficult time and there’s not much they can do to weather it.
“I think the mind of the electorate is mostly made up … They cannot rely anymore on the winning formulae of John Howard; we’re not in Howardland anymore, Dorothy.”
— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
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