The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: New England, held by Barnaby Joyce

Political experts say Barnaby Joyce will definitely face a big swing against him in his fight to reclaim the seat of New England. The only question is: will it be big enough for someone else to win on preferences?

New England

Incumbent: Barnaby Joyce

Margin: 8.5 per cent

Candidates:

Nationals: Barnaby Joyce

Labor: Yvonne Langenberg

Greens: Peter Wills

Independent: Natasha Ledger, Uralla councillor

Independent: Adam Blakester

Independent: Rob Taber

United Australia Party: Cindy Anne Duncan

Local issues:

Drought relief, cost of living pressures, infrastructure, energy.

JOYCE VULNERABLE DESPITE ‘SAFE’ SEAT STATUS

Former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce will be opposed by a string of independent candidates in New England.

Joyce will be vulnerable after the firestorm over his relationship with ex-staffer Vikki Campion last year despite his “safe” margin of 8.5 per cent.

But it’s unclear whether any of the independents will be able to gain enough votes to oust the former Nationals leader, who has held the seat since 2013.

THE SEATS TO WATCH IN NEW SOUTH WALES:

BANKS: Coleman’s seat will come down to the wire

COWPER: Nationals nemesis set to strike again

EDEN-MONARO: ‘Bellwether’ seat could change forever

GILMORE: Scandal-plagued seat on a knife edge

LINDSAY: Husar could hurt Labor in Lindsay

ROBERTSON: How Liberals could lose twice

WARRINGAH: Pollsters predict Abbott victory

WENTWORTH: Kerryn Phelps could lose Wentworth, say experts

Barnaby Joyce will be vulnerable after the firestorm over his relationship with ex-staffer Vikki Campion (left) last year. Credit: Channel 7

Uralla councillor Natasha Ledger is running as an independent in the regional NSW seat which centres on Tamworth and Armidale.

Businessman Adam Blakester could also pose a challenge.

New England Labor candidate Yvonne Langenberg. Picture: Supplied

After winning his pre-selection last year, Joyce said he expected substantial candidates to run against him.

“I will take each one of them on their merit. I will not concentrate on them, I will concentrate on the job that I want to do for the New England,” he said.

Griffith University political scientist Dr Paul Williams said predicted Mr Joyce would suffer and “enormous” primary swing against him .

Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp Joyce’s 8.5 per cent margin was only “fairly safe”.

“This makes it vulnerable,” Dr Williams said.

“Joyce will suffer an enormous primary swing against him - the question is will any one candidate scoop up these votes and run first or second, enough to win on preferences.

“It depends on who that popular local independent is.”

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, predicted the Nationals would reclaim the seat.

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN NEW SOUTH WALES

New South Wales state and federal issues are far more entwined than ever before, political scientist Dr Mark Rolfe says.

The UNSW social sciences professor said the cost of living issues that dominated the March 23 state election will also happen federally.

“Some of this entwining is due to the concurrent power of both tiers in health and education with the ALP branches especially making plays in what are its strong suits. Abortion now adds to this pressure on the Coalition,” Dr Rolfe said.

“Some of this entwining is also due to issues that don’t fall into the concurrent basket but are linked across the tiers.

“Immigration is a federal responsibility but its effects are in the states, as you know, with Gladys (Berejiklian) wanting a reduction in migrants because of the impact on infrastructure.”

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian. Picture: AAP/Troy Snook

UNSW political scientist Dr Mark Rolfe Picture: Supplied

Dr Rolfe said environment and renewables were also issues for both levels, with the “(Berejiklian) government ... attempting to distance itself from ScoMo.”

Dr Rolfe predicted a Labor swing federally.

He said Lucy Wicks (Liberal) in Robertson is on a knife-edge while Labor’s Emma McBride is looking to hold Dobell.

He was also watching Riverina closely, held by Nationals leader Michael McCormack.

“He’s on a big buffer but voters there might be restless.”

Federally, he expects the Liberals to have a difficult time and there’s not much they can do to weather it.

“I think the mind of the electorate is mostly made up … They cannot rely anymore on the winning formulae of John Howard; we’re not in Howardland anymore, Dorothy.”

- Additional reporting by Natasha Christian