The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Rob Oakeshott’s bid for seat of Cowper
He smashed the Nats once before, and his support helped prop up the Gillard Labor government - but will the voters of Cowper allow Rob Oakeshott to re-enter politics?
Cowper
Incumbent: Luke Hartsuyker
Margin: 4.6 per cent
Candidates:
Nationals: Patrick Conaghan
Independent: Rob Oakeshott
Greens: Sally Townley
Labor: Andrew Woodward
Local issues:
Cost of living, local infrastructure, education, health, retirees issues.
COWPER A MUST-WATCH SEAT
The battle for Cowper will be one to watch as independent Rob Oakeshott tries for the second time to wrest the seat from the Nationals.
The former federal MP, who was a crucial crossbencher in the Gillard government, has a better chance to win this time with incumbent Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker retiring at the election.
Oakeshott lost the mid-north coast seat to Hartsuyker in 2016, claiming 26.29 per cent of the primary vote compared to the National’s 45.97 per cent.
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But new National’s candidate Patrick Conaghan is not as well known as his predecessor.
Oakeshott is also expected to benefit from a general swing against the Coalition government.
“Cowper is another seat where it is worthwhile quoting statistics,” veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras told News Corp.
“Oakeshott needs a 4.6 per cent swing. I give him a 55 per cent chance to succeed with the Nationals candidate a 45 per cent chance.”
Griffith University political expert Paul Williams called it a “must watch seat”.
“There will be a significant personal vote lost,” Dr Williams said.
“The fact a polished and experienced independent in Oakeshott is contesting - away from his old seat of Lyne which he may not have won - means the Nationals are in danger in Cowper.
“McCormack’s tepid leadership of the Nats, on top of Joyce’s indiscretions, will almost certainly see their primary vote fall substantially.”
HOT ISSUES IN COWPER: INTERNET, INFRASTRUCTURE, ENVIRONMENT
Internet access in regional Australia, local infrastructure, climate change and environmental concerns are issues that have struck a chord with Cowper voters.
Anger at the major parties has also emerged as a key factor in the battle for the NSW north coast seat.
A social media analysis by Storyful Australia shows independent candidate Rob Oakeshott is having more cut through with voters online with those issues than Nationals candidate Patrick Conaghan is having with milk prices for dairy farmers and support for local businesses.
Oakeshott’s most popular post in recent weeks was about Wentworth MP Kerryn Phelps’ backing the refugee medevac law and what independents can achieve in Parliament.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN NEW SOUTH WALES
New South Wales state and federal issues are far more entwined than ever before, political scientist Dr Mark Rolfe says.
The UNSW social sciences professor said the cost of living issues that dominated the March 23 state election will also happen federally.
“Some of this entwining is due to the concurrent power of both tiers in health and education with the ALP branches especially making plays in what are its strong suits. Abortion now adds to this pressure on the Coalition,” Dr Rolfe said.
“Some of this entwining is also due to issues that don’t fall into the concurrent basket but are linked across the tiers.
“Immigration is a federal responsibility but its effects are in the states, as you know, with Gladys (Berejiklian) wanting a reduction in migrants because of the impact on infrastructure.”
Dr Rolfe said environment and renewables were also issues for both levels, with the “(Berejiklian) government ... attempting to distance itself from ScoMo.”
Dr Rolfe predicted a Labor swing federally.
He said Lucy Wicks (Liberal) in Robertson is on a knife-edge while Labor’s Emma McBride is looking to hold Dobell.
He was also watching Riverina closely, held by Nationals leader Michael McCormack.
“He’s on a big buffer but voters there might be restless.”
Federally, he expects the Liberals to have a difficult time and there’s not much they can do to weather it.
“I think the mind of the electorate is mostly made up … They cannot rely anymore on the winning formulae of John Howard; we’re not in Howardland anymore, Dorothy.”
- Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
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