The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Gilmore, contested by Warren Mundine
Warren Mundine’s preselection as the Liberal candidate for Gilmore has already prompted a vicious battle for the ultra-marginal seat.
Federal Election
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Gilmore
Incumbent: Ann Sudmalis
Margin: Liberal 0.7 per cent
Candidates
Liberal: Warren Mundine
Labor: Fiona Phillips
Independent: Grant Schultz
Nationals: Katrina Hodgkinson, a former NSW state politician who was minister for primary industries and small business for four years
Local issues
Cost-of-living pressures, particularly power prices, jobs, roads, local infrastructure, farming and rural issues.
STAR CANDIDATE EXPERIMENT ANGERS SOME
Expect a vicious battle for the ultra-marginal seat of Gilmore after the Liberal bloodletting over Warren Mundine being parachuted into the seat to replace preselected candidate Grant Schultz.
It will be a four-cornered contest between Labor, the Liberals, the Nationals and Mr Schultz, a local real-estate agent whose father was former state and federal MP Alby Schultz.
Schultz will be backed by a number of local Liberal allies angry at his dumping but his chances of winning enough of the primary vote to win the seat are slim.
The Liberals are relying on Mundine’s star power as an Aboriginal community leader and political commentator to win voters over.
The party will also be buoyed after the NSW state election result.
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Mundine will be open to attack over the fact he had been living in Sydney rather than the southern coastal NSW seat where infrastructure, farming, production, rural issues and cost-of-living pressures will be key.
The way he became the Liberal candidate and the fact that he was formerly a Labor Party president before quitting the party will also hurt his chances.
Current Liberal Member for Gilmore Ann Sudmalis’ decision to quit politics over bullying allegations will also hurt the party’s standing with voters, particularly since it could be left with as few as five or six women in the lower house after the election.
Senior Liberals - including party giant John Howard - have downplayed the fact Ms Sudmalis’ is backing Nationals candidate Katrina Hodgkinson, rather than Mr Mundine.
It’s also unclear how the Liberals’ preference deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will play out in the seat.
“The fact this is on a margin of just 0.7 per cent is enough to see it in trouble but the retirement of Sudmalis will almost certainly see Gilmore lost to Labor,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp.
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, also predicted Labor would win the seat.
Labor’s candidate Fiona Phillips narrowly missed out on winning Gilmore at the 2016 election by just 1503 votes.
Sudmalis won 45 per cent of the primary vote but the majority of preferences flowed to Phillips, making the seat one of the most marginal in the country.
This time, Labor will be helped by a general swing expected against the government.
Labor will be pushing hard with a negative campaign against Mundine, including claiming that he could back a nuclear power reactor in Jervis Bay.
Mundine is a supporter of nuclear power but has only said “there’s a number of places” a reactor could be built.
WHAT VOTERS WANT
Electricity prices and the so-called ‘retiree tax’ are hot-button issues for Gilmore voters.
Mundine’s claims that electricity bills would “soar by 50 per cent” and wages would drop by $9000 a year under Labor’s 45 per cent emissions target is striking a nerve with voters, a social media analysis by Storyful Australia and News Corp shows.
His claims that Labor is “coming after” Australians’ money by axing franking credit tax refunds has also gained traction.
Labor’s Fiona Phillips has less of a profile online but her posts about “cheaper, cleaner” energy and climate change also gained some of the biggest responses on her official Facebook.
Funding for TAFE, health and Medicare also attracted responses for Phillips.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN NEW SOUTH WALES
New South Wales state and federal issues are far more entwined than ever before, political scientist Dr Mark Rolfe says.
The UNSW social sciences professor said the cost of living issues that dominated the March 23 state election will also happen federally.
“Some of this entwining is due to the concurrent power of both tiers in health and education with the ALP branches especially making plays in what are its strong suits. Abortion now adds to this pressure on the Coalition,” Dr Rolfe said.
“Some of this entwining is also due to issues that don’t fall into the concurrent basket but are linked across the tiers.
“Immigration is a federal responsibility but its effects are in the states, as you know, with Gladys (Berejiklian) wanting a reduction in migrants because of the impact on infrastructure.”
Dr Rolfe said environment and renewables were also issues for both levels, with the “ (Berejiklian) government … attempting to distance itself from ScoMo.”
Dr Rolfe predicted a Labor swing federally.
He said Lucy Wicks (Liberal) in Robertson is on a knife-edge while Labor’s Emma McBride is looking to hold Dobell.
He was also watching Riverina closely, held by Nationals leader Michael McCormack.
“He’s on a big buffer but voters there might be restless.”
Federally, he expects the Liberals to have a difficult time and there’s not much they can do to weather it.
“I think the mind of the electorate is mostly made up … They cannot rely anymore on the winning formulae of John Howard; we’re not in Howardland anymore, Dorothy.”
— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
Originally published as The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Gilmore, contested by Warren Mundine
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