The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Robertson, held by Lucy Wicks
The Central coast seat of Robertson will be a key battleground with its ultra thin margin of 1.1 per cent - but it’s also set to be part of a bigger election narrative about the shrinking number of Liberal women.
Robertson
Incumbent: Lucy Wicks
Margin: 1.14 per cent
Candidates
Liberal: Lucy Wicks
Labor: Anne Charlton
Greens: Cath Connor
Local issues:
Cost of living, particularly power prices and jobs, immigration and border protection could be factors.
LIBS COULD LOSE MORE THAN JUST THE SEAT
Robertson will be a key battleground with its ultra thin margin of 1.1 per cent - but it’s also set to be part of a bigger story about the shrinking number of Liberal women.
A general swing against the government is expected across the country and is likely to see Labor claim a number of marginal seats like Robertson.
It could see the Liberal Party left with just a handful of women in the lower house, potentially their lowest number since the early 1990s.
Incumbent Lucy Wicks is one of several Liberal women either in danger of losing their seats or already gone.
THE SEATS TO WATCH IN NEW SOUTH WALES:
BANKS: Coleman’s seat will come down to the wire
COWPER: Nationals nemesis set to strike again
EDEN-MONARO: ‘Bellwether’ seat could change forever
GILMORE: Scandal-plagued seat on a knife edge
LINDSAY: Husar could hurt Labor in Lindsay
NEW ENGLAND: Joyce facing “enormous” swing
WARRINGAH: Pollsters predict Abbott victory
WENTWORTH: Kerryn Phelps could lose Wentworth, say experts
Nicolle Flint in Boothby and Sarah Henderson in Corangamite are also in marginal seats like Wicks, while former foreign affairs minister Julie Bishop and Minister for Women Kelly O’Dwyer will quit politics along with Ann Sudmalis and Jane Prentice, who lost her preselection battle to a male candidate.
Sussan Ley, Karen Andrews, Nola Marino and Melissa Price are the only remaining female MPs considered to be in safe seats, although Bishop’s replacement will have a healthy margin of 20 per cent and O’Dwyer’s replacement will be fairly safe on 8 per cent.
Wicks won Robertson by just 2179 votes against Labor’s Anne Charlton in 2016. This election will be a rematch between the two.
Charlton achieved a 1.95 per cent swing towards Labor last time and Labor sources are confident she can build on that to claim the Central Coast seat in May.
“The 1.1 per cent margin should be too narrow for Lucy Wicks to survive in a cost of living election, especially as Wicks hasn’t been the highest profile MP from my understanding,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp.
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, also predicted Labor would win the seat.
It’s unclear how the Liberals’ preference deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will play out in Robertson.
CENTRAL COAST HOSPITALS A KEY LOCAL ISSUE
Health care services and local infrastructure are among key issues for Robertson voters.
Climate change and the environment will also be factors, a social media analysis by News Corp and Storyful Australia shows.
Punters have reacted strongly to posts about a $35 million upgrade to commuter car parks at Gosford and Woy Woy stations as well as funding for the NorthConnex tunnel on Liberal MP Lucy Wicks’ official Facebook page.
Posts about health services also gained traction, including Ms Wicks posts about $3.8 million for a new machine for radiation treatments for cancer patients at Gosford Hospital and Labor candidate Anne Charlton’s posts about $20 million for a palliative care unity at the Woy Woy Hospital.
Posts about upgrades for sporting facilities, foreshore upgrades, and climate change also attracted attention online.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN NEW SOUTH WALES
New South Wales state and federal issues are far more entwined than ever before, political scientist Dr Mark Rolfe says.
The UNSW social sciences professor said the cost of living issues that dominated the March 23 state election will also happen federally.
“Some of this entwining is due to the concurrent power of both tiers in health and education with the ALP branches especially making plays in what are its strong suits. Abortion now adds to this pressure on the Coalition,” Dr Rolfe said.
“Some of this entwining is also due to issues that don’t fall into the concurrent basket but are linked across the tiers.
“Immigration is a federal responsibility but its effects are in the states, as you know, with Gladys (Berejiklian) wanting a reduction in migrants because of the impact on infrastructure.”
Dr Rolfe said environment and renewables were also issues for both levels, with the “(Berejiklian) government ... attempting to distance itself from ScoMo.”
Dr Rolfe predicted a Labor swing federally.
He said Lucy Wicks (Liberal) in Robertson is on a knife-edge while Labor’s Emma McBride is looking to hold Dobell.
He was also watching Riverina closely, held by Nationals leader Michael McCormack.
“He’s on a big buffer but voters there might be restless.”
Federally, he expects the Liberals to have a difficult time and there’s not much they can do to weather it.
“I think the mind of the electorate is mostly made up … They cannot rely anymore on the winning formulae of John Howard; we’re not in Howardland anymore, Dorothy.”
- Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
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