The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Petrie, held by Luke Howarth

The LNP’s Luke Howarth has defied expectations twice before to win the seat of Petrie - but will his strong personal standing resist a predicted swing against the government?

Petrie

Incumbent: Luke Howarth

Margin: 1.65 per cent

Candidates

Liberal: Luke Howarth

Labor: Corinne Mulholland

One Nation: Nikhil Aai Reddy, who came to Australia as a student from India in 2007 and currently works for the Department of Housing and Public Works

Greens: Jason Kennedy, has worked in technology industry and owned a small business

Local issues

Cost of living, education, health, congestion and the retiree tax will be key factors for this coastal seat. There are large numbers of young families and retirees in Petrie that both parties will be trying to win over.

THREE TIMES A CHARM FOR HOWARTH

Incumbent LNP member Luke Howarth has defied expectations twice before to win Petrie but this time a general swing expected against the government may prove too much.

Howarth won the outer metropolitan seat, north of Brisbane, by 871 votes from Labor’s Yvette D’Ath in 2013. He won it again, and even increased his margin by 1.12 per cent, against Labor’s Jacqui Pedersen in 2016. Now he’s facing Labor’s Corinne Mulholland, formerly a senior adviser to the mayor of Moreton Bay Regional Council.

THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN QUEENSLAND

CAPRICORNIA: Huge battle set for marginal seat

DAWSON: LNP maverick hanging by a thread

DICKSON: Peter Dutton’s fight to the death

FLYNN: Wildcards could cause upset result

FORDE: Labor eyes snatching seat off LNP

HERBERT: Seat could turn on just 19 votes

Luke Howarth has defied expectations twice before to win Petrie. Picture: Tara Croser

It’s possible he’ll defy the odds once again - political experts acknowledge his high profile and skill as a local campaigner - but with a general swing of about 3 per cent expected against the government, it’s unlikely.

Griffith University expert Paul Williams.

“Petrie was a seat Labor expected to win in 2016,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp.

“On 1.7 per cent, it should fall to Labor … although Howarth has been a high profile MP.”

One Nation candidate Nikhil Aai Reddy.

One Nation will run but it’s unclear if the party will pick up a significant portion of the vote.

Preference flows from Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will also be a factor after the LNP made a deal to preference the party second.

It could potentially help Howarth across the line, with a recent poll showing Palmer could nab an 8 per cent primary vote on average.

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, said he expected Labor to win Petrie along with other marginal seats including Dickson, Capricornia, Forde, Flynn, Dawson and Bonner.

“I would not be surprised, however, if one or two of the LNP sitting members held on for local or personal reasons. I am not willing to name seats in that regard,” he said.

Labor’s Corinne Mulholland is in the running for Petrie.

WHAT VOTERS WANT

Hospital and schools funding and upgrades for local sports facilities and roads are among the big issues for Petrie voters.

LNP MP Luke Howarth’s posts about the Gateway Motorway upgrade, school funding and grants to help local charities have had some of the biggest responses on his official Facebook page, a social media analysis by News Corp and Storyful Australia shows.

His post attacking Labor’s negative gearing policy has also gained traction.

Labor candidate Corinne Mulholland’s posts about funding for the Redcliffe Dolphins’ stadium upgrade, hospital and school funding and “getting fair wages for working Australians” also got a reasonably big response on her official page.

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN QUEENSLAND

Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton may be unsafe in Dickson, but the Liberals’ asylum-seeker policy push is likely to secure votes in the sunshine state as concerns for border protection and immigration heat up, political scientist Dr Paul Williams says.

Both of the major parties will need to lift their game if they want to win over Queensland’s ‘mini-states’ ahead of election day and job security, cost of living, economy and infrastructure are issues residents want to hear.

The state’s divided, yet strong views on border control, refugee policy and the Adani coal mine are sure to be vote securing in the north.

Dr Williams said the party leaders should be spending more time in regional Queensland to show they understand residents needs there are different to Brisbane.

Outside the city, asylum-seeker chatter gets louder, fuelled by the likes of Senator Fraser Anning and Bob Katter.

Dr Williams said Dickson was not a safe seat and Dutton would be in for a fight, but “if and when Dutton goes down he will only just lose.”

“The asylum seeker debate has reignited and it’s caught the attention of the electorates and Queensland is the most sensitive state to that,” he said, adding that refugee policy would be a good talking point for Scott Morrison in the state.

Political scientist Dr Paul Williams of Griffith University says Queensland and Victoria are the key states in this year’s federal election.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Her shift on Adani turned the state election in her favour, Williams says. Picture: Chris McCormack

He noted Morrison had struggled to win fans in Brisbane, still bitter about losing Malcolm Turnbull as PM.

Dr Williams does not foresee Liberal success in Queensland this time round.

But some, like Warren Entsch in Leichhardt, will likely be spared the swing.

He also pointed out the state isn’t a huge fan of Bill Shorten either, despite state Labor’s success under Annastacia Palaszczuk.

He said the opposition could not rely on her to help them secure a federal win.

Green issues like protection of the Great Barrier Reef is important to Queensland and Shorten has gained support over his opposition of the Adani coal mine after Palaszczuk won the state election when she changed her tune, declaring Labor would not fund it.

“It clearly turned the election for her,” Dr Williams said.

“It’s very interesting to see how Bill Shorten was more anti-Adani than the Queensland government,” he said.

“Certainly the resistance to Adani has grown astronomically in the last two years and there’s a huge level of scepticism.”

Dr Williams expected Shorten to stick with anti-Adani in his fight as he works to firm up Greens preferences.

“I expect Morrison to lose and Shorten to form government based on Queensland and Victoria result alone,” he said.

- Additional reporting by Natasha Christian