The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Dickson, held by Peter Dutton
Peter Dutton’s fight to reclaim Dickson will be the “must watch” battle in Queensland with electorate analysts doubting the Home Affairs Minister can hold on.
Federal Election
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Dickson
Incumbent: Peter Dutton (Liberal)
Margin: 2 per cent
Candidates
Liberal: Peter Dutton
Labor: Ali France
Greens: Benedict Coyne, former national president of Australian Lawyers for Human Rights
UAP: Stephen Austin
Local issues
Expect to see lots of billboards focusing on Dutton’s role in Turnbull’s ousting and his stance on refugees in Dickson during the campaign. But cost of living, jobs, traffic and congestion, health and education will be key issues for voters. The seat also has a surprisingly large Green vote, with the party claiming almost 10 per cent of the primary vote in 2016, so climate change and energy policy may also be a factor.
THE “MUST WATCH” BATTLE
Peter Dutton’s fight to reclaim Dickson will be the “must watch” battle in Queensland with experts doubting the Home Affairs Minister can hold on.
The Liberal veteran — who was almost ousted in 2016 but clung on by just 2911 votes — will be open to negative campaigns from Labor, The Greens and GetUp! over his role in the leadership spill to dump Malcolm Turnbull, the so-called au pairs scandal and his tough stance on asylum seekers.
THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN QUEENSLAND
CAPRICORNIA: Huge battle set for marginal seat
DAWSON: LNP maverick hanging by a thread
FLYNN: Wildcards could cause upset result
FORDE: Labor eyes snatching seat off LNP
HERBERT: Seat could turn on just 19 votes
PETRIE: Howarth hopes for a third miracle
A redistribution in the outer metro seat, north west of Brisbane, has boosted his margin from 1.7 per cent to 2 per cent but Griffith University political expert Paul Williams says it’s “still too thin for Dutton, who has his strong supporters and strong detractors”.
GetUp! is vowing to run an “unprecedented” campaign to topple him.
The left-wing lobby group is fundraising for a campaign war chest and already has an army of volunteers pledging thousands of hours to speak to constituents.
“His tilt against Turnbull, and subsequent spray at the former PM, probably hurt his campaign more than it helped,” Dr Williams told News Corp.
“With GetUp! also campaigning against him, it’s highly unlikely Dutton can survive this time around. “
But Dutton is a strong campaigner and fundraiser. He also remains popular in Queensland where he’s been an MP for 17 years following a career as a police officer.
Labor is banking on candidate Ali France being a complete contrast to Dutton to attract voters, although her stance on border protection could hurt her chances.
The disability advocate and former journalist, a member of Labor’s left faction, has been very critical of offshore detention and has previously called supporters of the policy “hypocrites”.
Once she was endorsed as the party’s candidate in Dickson, France removed any social media posts critical of the policy and backed Labor’s stance on immigration but said the current situation of indefinite detention “can’t go on”.
Former Labor candidate for Dickson Linda Lavarch, from the party’s right faction, may have been the stronger challenger but lost her bid to be re-endorsed.
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, said he expected Labor to win Dickson, along with other marginal Queensland seats Capricornia, Forde, Flynn, Petrie, Dawson and Bonner.
“I would not be surprised, however, if one or two of the LNP sitting members held on for local or personal reasons. I am not willing to name seats in that regard.”
Australian National University politics expert Jill Sheppard also suggested Dutton could hold on but believed his campaign would be a big hit to Coalition coffers.
“Those of us outside Queensland seem quite unable to understand his popularity within the state. In this election, though, he stands as a figure to be challenged,” she said.
“While it is unlikely — but absolutely not impossible — that he will lose his seat, the fact that this contest will have diverted resources from surrounding marginal seats is of huge consequence to the LNP organisation both in Queensland and federally.”
WHAT VOTERS WANT
Border protection, getting the remaining asylum seeker children off Nauru and moves to ban foreign fighters from returning to Australia for two years are key issues that have cut through for Peter Dutton.
Congestion, local infrastructure and jobs are other key issues the Home Affairs Minister is campaigning on, according to a social media analysis by Storyful Australia.
The banking royal commission is also striking a nerve.
Punters have responded strongly to Labor candidate Ali France’s claim that the Morrison Government has “clocked off” from acting on the royal commission’s recommendations.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN QUEENSLAND
Dutton may be unsafe in Dickson, but the Liberals’ asylum-seeker policy push is likely to secure votes in the sunshine state as concerns for border protection and immigration heat up, political scientist Dr Paul Williams says.
Both of the major parties will need to lift their game if they want to win over Queensland’s ‘mini-states’ ahead of election day and job security, cost of living, economy and infrastructure are issues residents want to hear.
The state’s divided, yet strong views on border control, refugee policy and the Adani coal mine are sure to be vote securing in the north.
Dr Williams said the party leaders should be spending more time in regional Queensland to show they understand residents needs there are different to Brisbane.
Outside the city, asylum-seeker chatter gets louder, fuelled by the likes of Senator Fraser Anning and Bob Katter.
Dr Williams said Dickson was not a safe seat and Dutton would be in for a fight, but “if and when Dutton goes down he will only just lose.”
“The asylum seeker debate has reignited and it’s caught the attention of the electorates and Queensland is the most sensitive state to that,” he said, adding that refugee policy would be a good talking point for Scott Morrison in the state.
He noted Morrison had struggled to win fans in Brisbane, still bitter about losing Malcolm Turnbull as PM.
Dr Williams does not foresee Liberal success in Queensland this time round.
But some, like Warren Entsch in Leichhardt, will likely be spared the swing.
He also pointed out the state isn’t a huge fan of Bill Shorten either, despite state Labor’s success under Annastacia Palaszczuk.
He said the opposition could not rely on her to help them secure a federal win.
Green issues like protection of the Great Barrier Reef is important to Queensland and Shorten has gained support over his opposition of the Adani coal mine after Palaszczuk won the state election when she changed her tune, declaring Labor would not fund it.
“It clearly turned the election for her,” Dr Williams said.
“It’s very interesting to see how Bill Shorten was more anti-Adani than the Queensland government,” he said.
“Certainly the resistance to Adani has grown astronomically in the last two years and there’s a huge level of scepticism.”
Dr Williams expected Shorten to stick with anti-Adani in his fight as he works to firm up Greens preferences.
“I expect Morrison to lose and Shorten to form government based on Queensland and Victoria result alone,” he said.
— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
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