The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: No guarantee Labor will win Flynn
Political experts are confident Labor will win Flynn, but say there’s “no guarantee” with the wildcards of One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
Federal Election
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Flynn
Incumbent: Ken O’Dowd (LNP)
Margin: 1.04 per cent
Candidates
LNP: Ken O’Dowd
Labor: Zac Beers
One Nation: Sharon Lohse, a beef cattle producer in the district of Biggenden and the Western Downs
UAP: Jacob Rush
Local issues
Jobs, cost of living pressures, energy, health and education will be key issues in Flynn.
NOTHING CERTAIN IN FIGHT FOR FLYNN
Political experts are confident Labor will win Flynn but say there’s “no guarantee” with the wildcards of One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
Labor’s Zac Beers, a strong local candidate with a union background, is gunning to claim the seat from current LNP member Ken O’Dowd.
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FORDE: Labor eyes snatching seat off LNP
HERBERT: Seat could turn on just 19 votes
PETRIE: Howarth hopes for a third miracle
He narrowly lost the 2016 election to O’Dowd by less than 2000 votes and is expected to benefit from a general swing against the government in May.
But One Nation and the United Australia Party will also claim a significant portion of the vote and their preference flows could sway the result.
The LNP has made an in principle preference deal to put UAP second on its how-to-vote cards and Mr Palmer’s party will in turn preference the LNP second.
It could help O’Dowd across the line.
Polling shows Mr Palmer’s costly advertising campaign is cutting through with voters and his party could nab a primary vote of 8 per cent on average.
Meanwhile, Pauline Hanson insists she won’t retaliate against Scott Morrison’s vow to preference One Nation below Labor — and O’Dowd will be desperately hoping she keeps her word.
At the last election One Nation candidate Phil Baker won 16.8 per cent of the primary vote, although much of it was from O’Dowd who was hit by a swing of -8.96 in 2013.
“On a 1.0 per cent margin, Labor should pick Flynn up but there’s no guarantee given the wildcards of PHON and UAP and KAP preferences,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said. “Regional issues also affect this seat.”
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, also expected Labor to claim the seat.
WHAT VOTERS WANT
A “fair go” for locals on health, education and infrastructure funding are key for Flynn voters, as well as aid for farmers and jobs.
A social media analysis by Storyful Australia shows both the One Nation candidate Sharon Lohse and Labor candidate Zac Beers are getting more traction online with their posts to voters than current LNP MP Ken O’Dowd.
Beers’ posts on health and education funding are getting the most traction, while Lohse has attracted some support for posts about keeping Australian farming land out of foreign ownership.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN QUEENSLAND
Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton may be unsafe in Dickson, but the Liberals’ asylum-seeker policy push is likely to secure votes in the sunshine state as concerns for border protection and immigration heat up, political scientist Dr Paul Williams says.
Both of the major parties will need to lift their game if they want to win over Queensland’s ‘mini-states’ ahead of election day and job security, cost of living, economy and infrastructure are issues residents want to hear.
The state’s divided, yet strong views on border control, refugee policy and the Adani coal mine are sure to be vote securing in the north.
Dr Williams said the party leaders should be spending more time in regional Queensland to show they understand residents needs there are different to Brisbane.
Outside the city, asylum-seeker chatter gets louder, fuelled by the likes of Senator Fraser Anning and Bob Katter.
Dr Williams said Dickson was not a safe seat and Dutton would be in for a fight, but “if and when Dutton goes down he will only just lose.”
“The asylum seeker debate has reignited and it’s caught the attention of the electorates and Queensland is the most sensitive state to that,” he said, adding that refugee policy would be a good talking point for Scott Morrison in the state.
He noted Morrison had struggled to win fans in Brisbane, still bitter about losing Malcolm Turnbull as PM.
Dr Williams does not foresee Liberal success in Queensland this time round.
But some, like Warren Entsch in Leichhardt, will likely be spared the swing.
He also pointed out the state isn’t a huge fan of Bill Shorten either, despite state Labor’s success under Annastacia Palaszczuk.
He said the opposition could not rely on her to help them secure a federal win.
Green issues like protection of the Great Barrier Reef is important to Queensland and Shorten has gained support over his opposition of the Adani coal mine after Palaszczuk won the state election when she changed her tune, declaring Labor would not fund it.
“It clearly turned the election for her,” Dr Williams said.
“It’s very interesting to see how Bill Shorten was more anti-Adani than the Queensland government,” he said.
“Certainly the resistance to Adani has grown astronomically in the last two years and there’s a huge level of scepticism.”
Dr Williams expected Shorten to stick with anti-Adani in his fight as he works to firm up Greens preferences.
“I expect Morrison to lose and Shorten to form government based on Queensland and Victoria result alone,” he said.
— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
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