The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Herbert, held by Cathy O’Toole
It’s Australia’s most marginal seat. But the outcome in Herbert is far from guaranteed with billionaire Clive Palmer, other minor parties and a star Liberal candidate set to shake things up.
Federal Election
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Herbert
Incumbent: Cathy O’Toole
Margin: 0.02 per cent
Candidates
Labor: Cathy O’Toole
Liberal: Phillip Thompson, former soldier and 2018 Queensland Young Australian of the Year
United Australia Party: Greg Dowling, former rugby league player
One Nation: Amy Lohse
Katter’s Australia Party: Nanette Radeck, a high school teacher in Townsville
Local issues
Flood relief, aid for farmers and cost of living pressures will be big factors, along with policies to create jobs. Any announcements impacting the Great Barrier Reef or defence force will also be factors.
THE 37 VOTE MARGIN
Billionaire Clive Palmer’s preference flows will be a wild card in the battle for Herbert — and it’s already the most marginal seat in the country.
Labor is tipped to reclaim the north Queensland seat, which it holds by the ultra thin margin of 37 votes.
But the Liberals could reclaim the Townsville-centric electorate with the help of preference flows from rugby league legend Greg Dowling, who is running for Mr Palmer’s United Australia Party.
The LNP made an in principle preference deal to put UAP second on its how-to-vote cards. Mr Palmer’s party will in turn preference the LNP second.
It comes as polling shows Mr Palmer’s costly advertising campaign is cutting through with voters and could nab a primary vote of 8 per cent on average.
THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN QUEENSLAND
CAPRICORNIA: Huge battle set for marginal seat
DAWSON: LNP maverick hanging by a thread
DICKSON: Peter Dutton’s fight to the death
FLYNN: Wildcards could cause upset result
FORDE: Labor eyes snatching seat off LNP
PETRIE: Howarth hopes for a third miracle
And the Liberals will also have the draw card of former soldier and 2018 Queensland Young Australian of the Year Phillip Thompson as their candidate.
Thompson’s military career and service in Afghanistan will make him a strong challenger for Labor’s Cathy O’Toole in the seat which has a large contingent of voters linked to the defence force at Lavarack Barracks.
A general swing against the government will help O’Toole.
And it’s not clear yet where other minor party’s will park their preference flows or who will benefit.
One Nation in particular is expected to pick up a big primary vote after nabbing almost 20 per cent in Townsville at the Queensland state election in 2017.
“Labor should be returned even though it’s ultra marginal at 0.02 per cent. But if UAP and PHON strip votes from Labor then preference the LNP, it is possible to see the LNP re-take the seat,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp.
“But, on balance, Labor should retain.”
Dr Williams also said Palmer would be handicapped by “outstanding issues” around his Queensland Nickel refinery, which collapsed in 2016 owing $300 million and leaving hundreds of workers without jobs. Some workers are still owed entitlements.
Voters would also be looking for infrastructure support, especially the devastating floods earlier this year.
Australian National University politics expert Jill Sheppard predicted the minor parties would have a “good showing” in Herbert but she cautioned voters against getting carried away about their chances. “Herbert has almost always alternated between Liberal and Labor,” Dr Sheppard said.
Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham said: “It seems to me that it’s a long bow that One Nation preferences are going to lose it for Labor.”
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, predicted Labor would reclaim the seat.
WHAT VOTERS WANT
Disaster relief payments and laws to put more scrutiny on insurance company decisions will be big issues in flood-ravaged Herbert.
Tackling low wage growth and infrastructure, health and education funding are other issues striking a nerve with voters in the Townsville electorate.
A social media analysis by News Corp and Storyful Australia shows Liberal candidate Philip is getting traction with issues such as backing the Adani coal mine, supporting defence personnel and veterans and disaster relief.
Punters are also reacting to Labor MP Cathy O’ Toole’s claims that the government isn’t tackling laws to make insurance companies “treat North Queenslanders fairly”, disaster relief, and health and education funding.
Anger at the major parties could also be a big factor in Herbert.
Businessman Clive Palmer is gaining a large response from posts slamming major parties for disunity and inaction, and on issues like foreign ownership of Australian land and assets.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN QUEENSLAND
Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton may be unsafe in Dickson, but the Liberals’ asylum-seeker policy push is likely to secure votes in the sunshine state as concerns for border protection and immigration heat up, political scientist Dr Paul Williams says.
Both of the major parties will need to lift their game if they want to win over Queensland’s ‘mini-states’ ahead of election day and job security, cost of living, economy and infrastructure are issues residents want to hear.
The state’s divided, yet strong views on border control, refugee policy and the Adani coal mine are sure to be vote securing in the north.
Dr Williams said the party leaders should be spending more time in regional Queensland to show they understand residents needs there are different to Brisbane.
Outside the city, asylum-seeker chatter gets louder, fuelled by the likes of Senator Fraser Anning and Bob Katter.
Dr Williams said Dickson was not a safe seat and Dutton would be in for a fight, but “if and when Dutton goes down he will only just lose.”
“The asylum seeker debate has reignited and it’s caught the attention of the electorates and Queensland is the most sensitive state to that,” he said, adding that refugee policy would be a good talking point for Scott Morrison in the state.
He noted Morrison had struggled to win fans in Brisbane, still bitter about losing Malcolm Turnbull as PM.
Dr Williams does not foresee Liberal success in Queensland this time round.
But some, like Warren Entsch in Leichhardt, will likely be spared the swing.
He also pointed out the state isn’t a huge fan of Bill Shorten either, despite state Labor’s success under Annastacia Palaszczuk.
He said the opposition could not rely on her to help them secure a federal win.
Green issues like protection of the Great Barrier Reef is important to Queensland and Shorten has gained support over his opposition of the Adani coal mine after Palaszczuk won the state election when she changed her tune, declaring Labor would not fund it.
“It clearly turned the election for her,” Dr Williams said.
“It’s very interesting to see how Bill Shorten was more anti-Adani than the Queensland government,” he said.
“Certainly the resistance to Adani has grown astronomically in the last two years and there’s a huge level of scepticism.”
Dr Williams expected Shorten to stick with anti-Adani in his fight as he works to firm up Greens preferences.
“I expect Morrison to lose and Shorten to form government based on Queensland and Victoria result alone,” he said.
— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
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