The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Pearce, held by Christian Porter

Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten are expected to shower attention on the WA seat of Pearce where Attorney-General Christian Porter is in the fight of his political life.

Pearce

Incumbent: Christian Porter

Margin: 3.6 per cent

Candidates:

Liberal: Christian Porter

Labor: Kim Travers

Local issues:
Ellenbrook train line, congestion, cost of living, health, education, jobs.

PEARCE CRUCIAL TO ELECTION

Pearce will be one of the most crucial fights on election night with Attorney-General Christian Porter — tipped as a possible future Liberal leader — in “quite a bit of danger” of losing his seat.

The senior WA Liberal is one of several government ministers and party veterans who could lose their seats on election night including Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, former prime minister Tony Abbott, Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt and Health Minister Greg Hunt.

Voters in Pearce can expect visits from both Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition leader Bill Shorten during the campaign, and funding announcements, as both major parties battle to win the seat.

Porter will face a challenge from ex-cop Kim Travers, who will run for Labor.

THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA:

CURTIN: Could Libs lose Julie Bishop’s seat to an independent?

HASLUCK: Ken Wyatt set to lose, experts say

STIRLING: Keenan’s exit puts seat in play

Attorney-General and Liberal candidate for Pearce Christian Porter holds his seat by a slim margin.

Labor is running former cop Kim Travers.

Porter’s 3.6 per cent margin and high profile may not be enough for him to win the seat if there’s a swing against the government.

“There’s been a lot of bad polling for the government in WA right through this term, so yeah I think Porter is in quite a bit of danger,” election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham told News Corp.

The Coalition has already acted to cut off Labor’s biggest weapon in WA, the GST, by announcing a major shake up to the distribution model in 2018. The change will result in an extra $4.7 billion for the state over eight years.

But Porter will still be concerned about anti-government sentiment — a factor which saw Liberal Premier Colin Barnett swept from office in a landslide after eight and a half years in power in 2017.

In the state seat of Swan Hills, located in Pearce, there was a 22.2 per cent swing in the primary vote against the Liberals at the state election.

While local issues and the state government were the key factors then, the result will still make Porter nervous.

It’s also unclear how the Liberals’ preference deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will play out in the seat.

Griffith University politics expert Dr Paul Williams said Christian Porter could become Opposition leader if he keeps his seat and the Liberal Party loses the election.

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras expected the Liberals would lose Pearce, along with the WA seats of Hasluck and Stirling. Picture: Michael Jones

“Pearce is a must watch seat. If Porter can survive he could be Opposition Leader after Scott Morrison resigns,” Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp.

“But his margin of 3.6 per cent is also touch and go. This could go either way,” Dr Williams said.

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, said he expected the Liberals to lose Pearce, along with Hasluck and Stirling in WA.

Porter won the 2016 election by 6312 votes. He won 45.4 per cent of the primary vote but his challenger at the time, Thomas French, scored an 8 per cent swing to Labor.

PEARCE HOT TOPICS: HEALTH, EDUCATION, DOMESTIC VIOLENCE

Road projects to tackle congestion, health and education funding and action to tackle domestic violence are among the issues getting voters’ attention in Pearce.

Penalty rates and a push to have more women in politics are other issues that could be factors, a social media analysis by Storyful Australia and News Corp shows.

Liberal MP Christian Porter’s posts about a Mitchell Freeway extension, education funding, new school facilities and funding for the Joondalup Health Campus have gotten some of the biggest responses on his official Facebook page.

Labor’s Kim Travers’ posts about action to tackle domestic violence, funding for schools, getting more women into politics and penalty rates have also gained traction.

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Western Australia’s slow economy and high unemployment rate will likely overlap in terms of how the state will vote federally, politics expert Dr Martin Drum says.

The Director of Public Policy at University of Notre Dame expected economic issues to be front and centre in WA on election day.

“Wage growth in WA has been very slow,” he said.

State-wise the McGowan Labor government is still in teething stages, only being elected in 2017.

“While a variety of issues have arisen since that time — the potential expulsion and resignation of Barry Urban being the most high profile — these are not likely to have an impact on the federal election,” Dr Drum said.

“Some regional voters have been very unhappy about state budget cuts impacting on regional services, even though several of those prominent cuts have been reversed. The federal seats covering these areas are already in Coalition hands.”

Notre Dame University politics expert Dr Martin Drum said some regional voters in WA were very unhappy about state budget cuts under the Labor Party. Picture: Supplied

However he did highlight a number of Coalition seats that were at risk federally — namely

Hasluck, Pearce and Swan.

“Hasluck and Pearce are currently held by well known ministers Ken Wyatt and Christian Porter.

“An outside roughie is Stirling with a margin of 6.1 per cent where sitting member Michael Keenan is retiring.

“The Coalition has said they are targeting Cowan (Labor 0.7 per cent) but this would need a swing to the Coalition which is probably unlikely at this election.”

The Liberals will also be fighting to retain Curtin, after the party’s highest profile female politician — Julie Bishop — announced she would be vacating the seat. Lawyer Celia Hammond has been put forward by the WA liberals to replace her.

— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian