The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Stirling, held by Michael Keenan
In an ordinary election, the seat of Stirling would be considered fairly safe for the Liberals, but the departure of Michael Keenan puts it in play for both major parties, experts say.
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Stirling
Incumbent: Michael Keenan (retiring)
Margin: 6.1 per cent
Candidates
Liberal: Vince Connelly
Labor: Melita Markey
Greens: Judith Cullity
Local issues:
Cost of living, jobs, education, retiree tax, negative gearing, congestion.
STIRLING ON A KNIFE’S EDGE
Stirling will be a must watch seat on election night thanks to Human Services Minister Michael Keenan’s decision to quit politics.
The inner-northern suburbs electorate was already considered a potential target for Labor with a margin of 6.1 per cent, although it wouldn’t have been an easy win.
But Keenan’s decision to pull the pin on his 15 year political career will shrink the margin further.
THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA:
CURTIN: Could Libs lose Julie Bishop’s seat to an independent?
HASLUCK: Ken Wyatt set to lose, experts say
PEARCE: Christian Porter in danger of losing seat
“Every time you get a new candidate you lose the personal vote of the departing sitting member and that generally costs at least a point,” election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham told News Corp.
Liberal candidate Vince Connelly, a former soldier, will face Labor’s Melita Markey, the chief operating officer at not-for-profit support group, the Asbestos Diseases Society of Australia.
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, said he expected the Liberals to lose Stirling, along with other key Liberal-held seats Pearce and Stirling.
But Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp he expected the Liberals would retain the seat, saying it should be “safe enough” on 6.1 per cent.
It’s unclear how the Liberals’ preference deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will play out in the seat.
STIRLING HOT TOPICS: INFRASTRUCTURE, MORE HOSPITAL BEDS
Pledges for local infrastructure upgrades such as more hospital beds or surf club facilities are getting voters’ attention in Striling.
The so-called retiree tax and the issue of getting more women into politics could also be key factors in the inner and northern Perth suburbs seat, a social media analysis by Storyful Australia and News Corp shows.
Posts about Labor’s pledge to rebuild Surfing Western Australia headquarters at Trigg Beach has attracted voters’ attention on Labor candidate Melita Markey’s official Facebook page.
Other posts about more palliative care beds at Osborne Park Hospital and needed more women in parliament have also attracted attention.
Liberal candidate Vince Connelly’s posts about Labor’s plan to axe tax refunds for franking credits also gained traction.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Western Australia’s slow economy and high unemployment rate will likely overlap in terms of how the state will vote federally, politics expert Dr Martin Drum says.
The Director of Public Policy at University of Notre Dame expected economic issues to be front and centre in WA on election day.
“Wage growth in WA has been very slow,” he said.
State-wise the McGowan Labor government is still in teething stages, only being elected in 2017.
“While a variety of issues have arisen since that time — the potential expulsion and resignation of Barry Urban being the most high profile — these are not likely to have an impact on the federal election,” Dr Drum said.
“Some regional voters have been very unhappy about state budget cuts impacting on regional services, even though several of those prominent cuts have been reversed. The federal seats covering these areas are already in Coalition hands.”
However he did highlight a number of Coalition seats that were at risk federally — namely
Hasluck, Pearce and Swan.
“Hasluck and Pearce are currently held by well known ministers Ken Wyatt and Christian Porter.
“An outside roughie is Stirling with a margin of 6.1 per cent where sitting member Michael Keenan is retiring.
“The Coalition has said they are targeting Cowan (Labor 0.7 per cent) but this would need a swing to the Coalition which is probably unlikely at this election.”
The Liberals will also be fighting to retain Curtin, after the party’s highest profile female politician — Julie Bishop — announced she would be vacating the seat. Former University of Notre Dame Vice Chancellor Celia Hammond has been picked by the Liberals to replace her.
— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
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