The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Curtin, held by Julie Bishop
Curtin used to be a sure bet for the Liberal Party. But the departure of Julie Bishop, and a national groundswell of support for centrist candidates, have changed everything.
Federal Election
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Curtin
Incumbent: Julie Bishop (retiring)
Margin: 20 per cent
Candidates
Liberal: Celia Hammond
Independent: Louise Stewart
Greens: Cameron Pidgeon
Labor: TBC
Local issues:
Negative gearing, retiree tax, the economy, health funding.
BISHOP’S ABSENCE MAKES CURTIN A MUST-WATCH
Curtin is shaping up to be a “must watch” seat after former foreign affairs minister Julie Bishop announced she was quitting politics.
Former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor Celia Hammond has been preselected as the Liberal’s replacement for Bishop.
It’s not clear how her conservative views about “militant feminism” will play in the western suburbs electorate, which is considered socially progressive.
But her chances improved after Labor’s star candidate Melissa Parke, a former Rudd Government minister, pulled out of the race after her comments about Israel’s treatment of Palestinians were reported.
THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA:
HASLUCK: Ken Wyatt set to lose, experts say
PEARCE: Christian Porter in danger of losing seat
STIRLING: Keenan’s exit puts seat in play
Multi-millionaire WA business woman Louise Stewart is also putting her hand up to take Hammond on as an independent.
It’s part of a wider trend of centrist independent candidates gunning to win Liberal strongholds this election, including Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth, Zali Steggall in Warringah and Julia Banks in Flinders.
With a 20 per cent margin, it isn’t likely the Liberals will lose the affluent western suburbs seat.
But the margin could be reduced.
Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp a popular independent “might upset the Liberals” but he considered the seat “very safe”.
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, said he expected the Liberals to retain Curtin.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Western Australia’s slow economy and high unemployment rate will likely overlap in terms of how the state will vote federally, politics expert Dr Martin Drum says.
The Director of Public Policy at University of Notre Dame expected economic issues to be front and centre in WA on election day.
“Wage growth in WA has been very slow,” he said.
State-wise the McGowan Labor government is still in teething stages, only being elected in 2017.
“While a variety of issues have arisen since that time — the potential expulsion and resignation of Barry Urban being the most high profile — these are not likely to have an impact on the federal election,” Dr Drum said.
“Some regional voters have been very unhappy about state budget cuts impacting on regional services, even though several of those prominent cuts have been reversed. The federal seats covering these areas are already in Coalition hands.”
However he did highlight a number of Coalition seats that were at risk federally — namely
Hasluck, Pearce and Swan.
“Hasluck and Pearce are currently held by well known ministers Ken Wyatt and Christian Porter.
“An outside roughie is Stirling with a margin of 6.1 per cent where sitting member Michael Keenan is retiring.
“The Coalition has said they are targeting Cowan (Labor 0.7 per cent) but this would need a swing to the Coalition which is probably unlikely at this election.”
— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
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