The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Boothby, held by Nicolle Flint

Boothby will be a “must watch” seat on election night with a margin of 2.8 per cent — but it’s also going to be part of the bigger story about Liberal women.

Boothby

Incumbent: Nicolle Flint

Margin: 2.8 per cent

Candidates

Labor: Nadia Clancy

Liberal: Nicolle Flint

Greens: Stef Rozitis

Local issues: Cost of living, jobs, the economy, energy policy.

LIBS’ WOMEN BRIGADE COULD SHRINK FURTHER

Boothby will be a “must watch” seat on election night with a margin of 2.8 per cent — but it’s also going to be part of the bigger story about the shrinking number of Liberal women.

Nicolle Flint is one of several Liberal women who are in danger of losing their seats or who have already gone.

Julie Bishop, Kelly O’Dwyer, Ann Sudmalis and Jane Prentice are already departing through retirement or losing preselection, while Lucy Wicks and Sarah Henderson in Robertson and Corangamite are in marginal seats, the same as Flint.

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Nicolle Flint is one of several Liberal women who are in danger of losing their seats or who have already gone. Picture: AAP

If Flint loses Boothby, the party could be left with just five or six women in the lower house.

Experts are divided on whether Flint can hold on given a general swing against the Coalition is expected across the country.

Labor candidate Nadia Clancy.

Greens candidate Stef Rozitis.

She will also be targeted by GetUp over climate change and other “progressive” issues, although the activist group’s resources will mainly go towards targeting Peter Dutton and Tony Abbott.

Voters can expect high-profile Liberal MPs to flock to the seat to campaign with Flint.

Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp the seat would be “likely lost to Labor”, while veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras said the Liberal Party would retain Boothby.

Labor is running former political staffer Nadia Clancy as its candidate.

It’s unclear how the Liberals’ preference deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will play out in the seat.

BOOTHBY HOT TOPICS: HEALTH, MEDICARE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Health services, Medicare, Labor’s so-called retiree tax and climate change have emerged as big issues for Boothby voters.

A Storyful Australia analysis of key candidates Nicolle Flint and Nadia Clancy’s official social media accounts shows voters reacted most to those issues.

Liberal MP Nicolle Flint’s posts about the decision to keep the Repat Hospital open attracted the biggest responses, followed by a post which said Labor’s policy to axe tax refunds for franking credits would have a “devastating impact” on senior Australians.

Punters also reacted to Labor candidate Nadia Clancy’s post about the importance of maintaining Medicare, showing that a “medi-scare” style campaign could still have sway at the election.

Another post about the need for action on climate change had the next biggest response.

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA

South Australia is likely to punish the Liberals at the ballot box for their leadership issues, says Dr Rob Manwaring, senior lecturer at Flinders University.

“Morrison is not yet a convincing Prime Minister, generally speaking most voters don’t reward division. The push by Dutton and eventual win by Morrison is very fresh in peoples’ minds,” he said.

Long-serving Sturt MP Christopher Pyne, who announced his retirement in March, would’ve likely lost his seat, he added.

Dr Robert Manwaring is a lecturer in Politics and Public Policy at Flinders Unviersity.

Dr Manwaring specified cost of living and the economy, clean energy, housing affordability and water (especially concerning the health of the Murray river) as key issues for SA residents.

“(Shorten’s) policy agenda is shining through, particularly the middle class is worried about how their children can get into the housing market,” he said.

Dr Manwaring was also interested to see what Centre Alliance and former senator Nick Xenophon does.

“We don’t know how much Xenophon is going to be active. Last election the Centre Alliance pushed forward, they bit off more than they could chew and their campaign ran aground,” he said. “There is a strong dormant vote for the centrist party in SA and the question would be the extent that the CA has recalibrated and what they want to achieve at a local level.”

— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian