The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Sturt held by Christopher Pyne

Sturt will be a “must watch” seat on election night after senior Liberal Christopher Pyne called time on his political career. Labor will be hoping to win the SA seat for the first time ever.

Sturt

Incumbent: Christopher Pyne (retiring)

Margin: 5.7 per cent

Candidates

Liberal: James Stevens

Labor: Cressida O’Hanlon

Greens: Paul Boundy

Local issues:

Health funding, retiree tax, negative gearing, the economy, education.

PYNE’S SEAT UP IN THE AIR

Sturt will be the “must watch” seat in South Australia on election night thanks to Defence Minister and Liberal powerbroker Christopher Pyne’s decision to call time on his 26 year career in politics.

The seat has a margin of just 5.7 cent, which would have made even Pyne “vulnerable”, according to Griffith University politics expert Paul Williams.

But the new candidate, former political staffer James Stevens, will be in even bigger trouble.

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Christopher Pyne has resigned from politics, leaving the seat of Sturt which he held for almost 27 years. Picture: Supplied

“Sturt is right on the cusp of ‘fairly safe’ but, given the unpopularity of the Morrison government and … state Libs, and the loss of Pyne’s personal vote, this is touch and go for the Liberals,” Dr Williams told News Corp.

“Given the decline in the Xenophon/ Centre Alliance brand, I’m expecting many of those voters to return to Labor and bolster Labor’s primary vote considerably.

“The Libs will probably hang on but it will be close.”

Liberal candidate James Stevens was a former staffer of Mr Pyne. Picture: Tom Huntley

Labor’s candidate Cressida O'Hanlon could benefit from a voters displeasure with the state and federal Liberal governments. Picture: Tait Schmaal

Stevens, formerly the chief of staff to SA Premier Steven Marshall, will be up against Labor’s candidate Cressida O’Hanlon, a former farmer turned dispute mediator.

“If Labor wins big then Sturt is a seat where it’s close,” election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham said.

“And with Pyne gone after so much time, it’s another one I think is a bit wobbly.”

Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham said Labor could be in with a chance to win Sturt.

Pyne and other high-profile Liberals are likely to campaign strongly in Sturt alongside their chosen candidate.

But if a swing against the government occurs across the country, Labor will be in with a chance of claiming the traditional Liberal stronghold.

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, predicted the Liberals would retain the seat.

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA

South Australia is likely to punish the Liberals at the ballot box for their leadership issues, says Dr Rob Manwaring, senior lecturer at Flinders University.

“Morrison is not yet a convincing Prime Minister, generally speaking most voters don’t reward division. The push by Dutton and eventual win by Morrison is very fresh in peoples’ minds,” he said.

Long-serving Sturt MP Christopher Pyne, who announced his retirement in March, would’ve likely lost his seat, he added.

Flinders Unviersity lecturer in Politics and Public Policy Dr Robert Manwaring said Scott Morrison was “not yet a convincing Prime Minister”. Picture: Supplied

Dr Manwaring specified cost of living and the economy, clean energy, hosuing affordability and water (especially concerning the health of the Murray river) as key issues for SA residents.

“(Shorten’s) policy agenda is shining through, particularly the middle class is worried about how their children can get into the housing market,” he said.

Dr Manwaring was also interested to see what Centre Alliance and former senator Nick Xenophon does.

“We don’t know how much Xenophon is going to be active. Last election the Centre Alliance pushed forward, they bit off more than they could chew and their campaign ran aground,” he said. “There is a strong dormant vote for the centrist party in SA and the question would be the extent that the CA has recallibrated and what they want to achieve at a local level.”

- Additional reporting by Natasha Christian