The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie

Rebekha Sharkie is expected to trump Liberal royalty Georgina Downer’s attempt to snare Mayo. But will Downer be able to score a shock upset to claim her father’s former seat?

Mayo

Incumbent: Rebekha Sharkie

Margin: 5 per cent

Candidates

Liberal: Georgina Downer

Centre Alliance: Rebekha Sharkie

Labor: Saskia Gerhardy

Local issues:

Infrastructure, cost of living, energy, climate, education, health, environmental issues.

DESPITE DOWNER, IT’S SHARKIE’S SEAT

Centre Alliance candidate Rebekha Sharkie is tipped to win her seat again despite Liberal royalty Georgina Downer making a second attempt to wrest it back.

Sharkie won the seat in 2016 as part of the Nick Xenophon Team against Liberal MP Jamie Briggs, who had quit the frontbench in December 2015 over an incident with a female public servant in Hong Kong.

THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA

BOOTHBY: A key test for Liberal women

STURT: Labor eyes off seat after Pyne departure

The Liberal’s hand-picked candidate Georgina Downer, daughter of Alexander Downer who held Mayo for 24 years.

Centre Alliance incumbent Rebekha Sharkie.

The Liberals picked Downer, daughter of Alexander Downer who held Mayo for 24 years, to win the electorate back at the 2018 by-election sparked by Sharkie’s dual citizenship.

But Sharkie won the seat, claiming 44.37 per cent of the primary vote, and gained a reputation as a strong local campaigner.

Griffith University political scientist Dr Paul Williams gave Ms Sharkie a 75 per cent chance of retaining Mayo, and Georgina Downer a 25 per cent chance of claiming it.

Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said the rematch between Sharkie and Downer would be “fascinating”.

“The Liberals have little hope of picking this back up,” Dr Williams told News Corp.

“Labor is in with a chance given its margin against the Libs has narrowed after redistribution, but Centre Alliance’s Sharkie should retain.”

Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, also tipped Sharkie to win.

“I give Rebekha Sharkie a 75 per cent chance with Georgina Downer on 25 per cent,” he told News Corp.

Labor has picked 23-year-old Saskia Gerhardy, an environmental campaigner, for its candidate in Mayo.

MAYO HOT TOPICS: IT’S ALL ABOUT INFRASTRUCTURE

Tackling mobile black spots and other local infrastructure upgrades will be key issues for Mayo votes.

Both Central Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie and Liberal candidate Georgina Downer are keen to lobby the government for more towers to reduce the more than 130 mobile black spots across the electorate, a social media analysis by Storyful Australia and News Corp shows.

Punters are also welcoming Sharkie’s calls for upgrades for TAFE campuses, schools and facilities like boat ramps, as well as Downer’s calls for road upgrades and other infrastructure.

WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA

South Australia is likely to punish the Liberals at the ballot box for their leadership issues, says Dr Rob Manwaring, senior lecturer at Flinders University.

“Morrison is not yet a convincing Prime Minister, generally speaking most voters don’t reward division. The push by Dutton and eventual win by Morrison is very fresh in peoples’ minds,” he said.

Long-serving Sturt MP Christopher Pyne, who announced his retirement in March, would’ve likely lost his seat, he added.

Flinders University lecturer in Politics and Public Policy Dr Robert Manwaring said Bill Shorten’s policy agenda was “shining through”. Picture: Supplied

Dr Manwaring specified cost of living and the economy, clean energy, housing affordability and water (especially concerning the health of the Murray river) as key issues for SA residents.

“(Shorten’s) policy agenda is shining through, particularly the middle class is worried about how their children can get into the housing market,” he said.

Dr Manwaring was also interested to see what Centre Alliance and former senator Nick Xenophon does.

“We don’t know how much Xenophon is going to be active. Last election the Centre Alliance pushed forward, they bit off more than they could chew and their campaign ran aground,” he said. “There is a strong dormant vote for the centrist party in SA and the question would be the extent that the CA has recalibrated and what they want to achieve at a local level.”

— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian