The NT News looks at the predictions and tips for Round 5 of the NTFL
The 2022-23 NTFL is into Round 5 and the league seems to be closer than ever with tight games everywhere you look. We’ve examined each match and predicted who will win and why.
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The 2022-23 NTFL is into Round 5 and the league seems to be closer than ever with tight games everywhere you look.
On Friday, two talent-filled squads in Palmerston and Wanderers will go head to head at Cazalys Arena.
Then for the first time this year we head to Bathurst Island where Tiwi Bombers are sure to lift their game against a PINT side not quite used to travel.
In other games, Nightcliff will host a confident Waratah at Nightcliff Oval, and St Mary’s and Southern Districts will duke it out at TIO Stadium.
Find out who we’re tipping for Round 5 and why.
WATCH ALL THE ROUND 5 STREAMS HERE
Palmerston Magpies v Wanderers
There’s no doubting Palmerston and Wanderers are talented sides, but this match will be a test of which side can put together a four quarter effort.
The Magpies have yet to manage that in the 2022-23 season, falling behind at half time in each of their past three matches.
It paid off against PINT and Nightcliff in some capacity, but against Waratah despite finishing the better side they were unable to grab the win.
Baxter Mensch leads the disposal count for the season with 132 touches, while Sam Clohesy (93 disposals) and Eric Guthrie (83 disposals) have also been busy each match.
Add those to the shed-load of work Josiah Farrar, Tristen Waack and Phil Wills put in and it’s easy to see why Palmerston are a side on the up.
However, they will struggle on the scoring end without AFL champion and talisman Eddie Betts who scored 15 goals from the opening four games.
His presence will be missed over the next couple of weeks and it means another Magpie will need to put up their hands as the primary forward target.
Targets up front is not something Wanderers are lacking with the twin towers of Ed Simpson and Darren Shillabeer alongside Steven Motlop.
And yet despite their options up front the Muk Muks have only come away with one win, a match against St Mary’s where no forward managed to shine.
Instead it was Dane McFarlane across the midfield alongside the speed of Beau O’Connell and Marcus Totham which gave the Eagles their best opportunities.
The win also came down to the strength of the Wanderers backline led by Mitchel Taylor and Brodie Newman who held out many a promising play.
Palmerston will have their work cut out for them at home, but with forwards lacking goals up against a quality defence they will be troubled.
Our tip: Wanderers by 10 points
Tiwi Bombers v PINT
Saturday 1.45pm - Wurrumiyanga Oval
This could be the Bombers’ best chance of winning its first game since February, 2020.
Playing their first home fixture since December last year, the Bombers will take on an emerging PINT side making its maiden trip to Wurrumiyanga.
Catching a ferry to the islands, it will be interesting to see how the Greenants cope with the unique preparation.
Tiwi announced former North Melbourne player Majak Daw would make his debut in Round 5, but he has not been named.
However, the Bombers will be bolstered by the inclusion of Tristan Singh-Lippo, Sam Darley and Dion Munkara, after all three served their suspensions.
PINT, on the other hand, have lost no fans so far this season with a competitive second half against Nightcliff on Men’s Premier League debut, serving it up to Palmerston despite numerous injuries while breaking through with its first win against St Mary’s.
It also boasts the league’s number one defensive rebounder and intercept marker in Ben Smyth, Brayden Taylor has been its clearance king (seventh in the league), while Brock Carter is second in the competition for hit outs.
The Greenants have also named goal kicker Chris Nield after a hand injury against Palmerston.
With an eager home crowd, and PINT entering unfamiliar territory, the Bombers are a decent chance at least of returning to the winner’s circle for the first time in more than two years.
Our tip: PINT by 12 points
Nightcliff Tigers v Waratah
Saturday 6.30pm - Nightcliff Oval
Arguably the league’s match of the round, with Nightcliff looking to take its first, big scalp in Men’s Premier League.
The Tigers disposed of PINT in Round 1, who are a work in progress and were valiant to remain within five goals on debut.
Nightcliff, then smarting from a six-point loss to Palmerston in Round 3, did what everyone was expecting the following week: belting the Tiwi Bombers.
However, once again appearing to miss Cameron Ilett and Trent Melville, the Tigers will face their stiffest test yet in Waratah, albeit at home.
Last year’s grand finalists will welcome Will Collis for his first game of the season, plus the returning Robbie Turnbull.
But they will need to find a match up for Brodie Filo, who amassed 45 possessions (17 contested), 11 clearances, three goals and a staggering 12 inside 50s last round.
While the X Factor comes from 16-year-old Phoenix Joe Pool who was electric with 18 touches and two goals, and Michael Mummery (majors).
One thing is for certain, Waratah cannot afford to have quiet second half like it did against Palmerston at Gardens Oval, scoring just two goals after half time and handing the Pies all of the momentum.
Our tip: Nightcliff by 18 points
St Mary’s v Southern Districts
One of the big questions in the NTFL right now is when will we see St Mary’s fire against a good side?
They are the reigning premiers, and yet are stuck with just one win from four matches to their name.
Sure, it’s early in the season still and you don’t win premierships in October, but there are questions Saints need to answer if they want to win in March.
A healthy injection of experience is coming Saints way this weekend to face the in-form Southern Districts.
Nigel Lockyer Jr slots into the forward line to add another kicking option besides the 2021-22 leading goal kicker Jackson Calder, who has found himself isolated at times this season.
Lucas Jellyman-Turner and Brandyn Granfell both come in as well as the squad comes closer to that which won the premiership last year.
Dylan Landt was easily the best Saint on field against Wanderers last week with 32 possessions and 11 inside 50s.
His efforts almost brought the Green Machine back from the brink, and with more support from those around him this is a side that isn’t far away from getting wins again.
But it’s no easy task coming up against Southern Districts, who remain the only undefeated of the season.
Their match against Buffaloes was called short just ahead of half time due to a neck injury to Nicolas Weightman.
There’s plenty of players to look out for in this Crocs side from dominant ruckman Matt Dennis to their ball-magnet defender Michael Bowden.
Matt Shannon and Frazer Driscoll are also among the leagues best at attracting the ball once they get going.
Districts have so far proved they’re a side who can take anyone on, and though they have yet to play at TIO Stadium this season are the better-gelled side in the match.
Our tip: Southern Districts by 8
ROUND 4 PLAYER RATINGS AND KEY MATCH-UPS
It was another big week of NTFL action in Round 4 where defences shone and league rules came to light.
In the men’s competition Waratah, Nightcliff and Wanderers all managed wins, while Buffaloes and Districts shared competition points in a match called off before half time.
And in the women’s competition Tiwi, St Mary’s, Waratah and Buffettes were the victors.
Slow starting Palmerston
There is no doubting Palmerston’s quality in this season, they have the talent and they have results on the board.
But slow starts have become a theme in their most recent matches conceding ground early to PINT, Nightcliff and Waratah.
In all three matches they responded in the second half scrapping out a draw against the Greenants and sealing a win over Tigers.
But the second half surge was not quite enough against Tahs, with Magpies falling seven points short at the final siren.
Had the storm fronted earlier in Round 2 then Palmerston would have lost to PINT, despite finishing the stronger side.
It’s an area Palmerston need to work on and it will come down to their leaders such as Eric Guthrie, Chris Williams and Phil Wills to set the tone early in matches.
When that clicks so too will their young contingent including NT News Round 4 Rising Star nominee Andrew Green.
Next up Palmerston face Wanderers who took their first win of the season against the reigning premiers St Mary’s last week.
It’s an interesting match-up between two sides who have plenty of talent, but are still finding their way in the 2022-23 competition.
Waratah vs Palmerston Player Ratings
3. Dylan Collis (Waratah)
2. Eric Guthrie (Palmerston)
1. Daniel O’Dwyer (Waratah)
Could the NTFL’s longest winless streak be broken?
With the Tiwi Bombers able to select Dion Munkara, Tristan Singh-Lippo and Sam Darley for Round 5 against PINT at home, after all three served suspensions, could they record their first win in Men’s Premier League since February, 2020?
And the Bombers will be bolstered by the inclusion of former North Melbourne player Majak Daw.
Tiwi have not won the clearance battle this season and Daw could certainly help in the ruck.
It’s an area they have had at least one tick in 2022-23, winning the hit out count 21-15 over Buffs in Round 3.
However, the Bombers will need to up their pressure for starters, allowing key Tigers like Brodie Filo (two goals) and Daniel Bowles, and Rising Star nominee Phoenix Joe Pool (two goals), to run rampant at Nightcliff Oval on Saturday.
Filo, a two-time Nichols medallist, continually pumped the ball inside the Tigers’ forward half where the likes of Joe Pool and Michael Mummery (four goals) had space to exhibit their sublime skills.
But with a home crowd behind them for the first time since December 18 last year, can the Bombers faithful carry their team the line over against a PINT side, new to the concept of flying to a game and still learning to play together?
Nightcliff vs Tiwi Player Ratings
3. Brodie Filo (Nightcliff)
2. Phoenix Joe Pool (Nightcliff)
1. Daniel Bowles (Nightcliff)
Bombers women’s become finals contenders
The Tiwi Bombers have well and truly cemented their place in the Women’s Premier League after beating last year’s grand finalists Nightcliff.
This is a Tiwi side which has improved week after week steadily finding its place in the new system.
And while their first win came two weeks ago against St Mary’s, beating Nightcliff has moved them to genuine finals contenders.
From Round 1 it was always a matter of when rather than if Tiwi would claim their big scalp, and now they’ve done it.
The skill was there from the start, all they needed was time to adjust to the level and gel as a squad.
Natasha Puautjimi was a force in front of goals kicking three through the centre posts while Bayley Valentine and long-time NTFL standout Rhiannon Busch also stood out.
Nightcliff put up plenty of resistance at home and still look a side with intentions of finals, with Mickayla Ward among their standouts.
Tiwi have a tougher challenge next week against a very strong PINT unit, but there will be plenty of excitement for them as well playing on Wurrumiyanga Oval for the first time.
Nightcliff vs Tiwi Women’s Player Ratings
3. Bayley Valentine (Tiwi)
2. Mickayla Ward (Nightcliff)
1. Natasha Puautjimi (Tiwi)
Wanderers defence shines through
They may have lost their opening two matches, but the Muk Muk’s talent shone through in Round 4 as they grabbed their first win of the season against St Mary’s.
But at TIO Stadium it largely came down to their rock-solid defence led by captain Mitchel Taylor and the intercept mark king Brodie Newman.
Taylor locked down the 2021-22 leading goal kicker and Chaney Medallist Jackson Calder preventing the star full forward from scoring until the final quarter.
And Newman with 27 touches and six intercept marks to his name was crucial in moving the ball out of the back line keeping an on-paper strong St Mary’s out of the danger zone.
It was a show of talent which proved the Muk Muks have perhaps been unlucky in previous games where they only lost by a matter of points.
The side is full of talent from their forward line of Ed Simpson, Darren Shillabeer and Steven Motlop to their midfield speedsters in Marcus Totham and Beau O’Connell.
And now they have their first win out of the way there will be a renewed confidence across this Wanderers side.
For their part St Mary’s will be needing options outside of Calder to come forward with the big man now the target.
And it doesn’t get easier for them against an in-form Southern Districts full of big bodies able to dominate the midfield.
St Mary’s vs Wanderers Player Ratings
3. Mitchel Taylor (Wanderers)
2. Brodie Newman (Wanderers)
1. Dane McFarlane (Wanderers)
The league’s 30-minute injury rule
Should the league’s rule on injury-affected matches be revisited?
An injury to Southern Districts defender Nicholas Weightman deep in the second quarter at Cazalys Arena on Sunday against Darwin Buffaloes caused the game to be held up for more than 30 minutes, as both clubs waited nervously for an ambulance to arrive.
Under league rules, a game will be declared a draw if it is unable to be restarted within half an hour.
It was the second match to be abandoned in the 2022-23 season after a major storm struck TIO Stadium in Round 2, causing the Palmerston v PINT game to be called off late in the final term.
But with the game delicately poised at 41-17 on Sunday, could the rules be rewritten to allow more time for injury-forced interruptions?
With Crocs one of the form teams of the competition, and the Buffs looking to atone for poor kicking (7.22) last weekend against the Tiwi Bombers, it was shaping up to be one of the matches of the round.
You can understand the hesitancy when it comes to wild weather.
And a team losing a star player to a game-ending injury, and trailing in the match, may not complain too much about the existing rule.
Local residents might also complain about a game going on longer than expected.
But is 30 minutes too short a time frame to abandon a game completely?
Districts vs Buffaloes Player Ratings
3. Liam Holt-Fitz (Buffaloes)
2. Michael Bowden (Districts)
1. Tom Baulch (Buffaloes)
More Coverage
Originally published as The NT News looks at the predictions and tips for Round 5 of the NTFL
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