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Interest rates

Today

Westpac estimates state and federal government spending will hit 28 per cent of GDP by the end of 2025, up from the pre-pandemic average of about 22.5 per cent.

IMF puts Chalmers on notice over rates, super tax and spending

In its annual health check of Australia’s economy, the International Monetary Fund said more unexpected expenditure rises will force the RBA to keep rates high.

  • Michael Read

Why rents and vacancy rates are both falling

Tight rental vacancies typically fuel strong rental increases, but not in the current market.

  • Nila Sweeney

Yesterday

Magellan co-founder Chris Mackay sees a world of risk, but opportunities for calm investors.

Why investment legend Chris Mackay says ‘it’s a dangerous time’

The MFF Capital Investments boss and Magellan co-founder says the “everything rally” is likely to reverse, but calm, long-term investors can fight through the noise.

  • James Thomson
The controversy about meetings has come at a time when Governor Michele Bullock has improved the bank’s clarity.

RBA should spell out rules on private meetings with market movers

The holding of confidential meetings can backfire when some people think that others are getting advantaged access to the central bank’s thinking.

  • John Kehoe
The RBA may be actively choosing to tolerate hotter inflation to preserve employment.

RBA barred Westpac in third case of briefing leak

A suspected leak of an off-record briefing from Michele Bullock led to the bank being black-listed for 12 months.

  • Mark Di Stefano, John Kehoe and Cecile Lefort
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This Month

The suburbs where house prices slumped by up to $288k in three months

The pressures of high interest rates and poor affordability triggered a decline in median house values in some of the country’s most expensive markets.

  • Nila Sweeney
Mr Comyn said the serviceability buffer had increased financial stability at a business lunch in Sydney.

CBA’s Comyn backs APRA’s mortgage buffer rules amid intense criticism

The chief executive of the country’s biggest lender said critics – who say the regulations make loans unattainable – were looking for an easy but ineffective fix.

  • Updated
  • Michael Read and Lucas Baird
Wall Street hasn’t reacted to the huge stimulus program in China.

Why Fed-obsessed US traders are ignoring China’s soaring sharemarket

The Asian giant’s stunning equity market surge has registered with US traders, underlining China’s limited role as an engine for America’s economy.

  • Lu Wang and Yiqin Shen
Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher.

Debt hits seven-year low before decade of deficits

Federal government net debt has fallen to its lowest level since 2017, but economists say the coming decade of deficits will send borrowing levels higher.

  • Michael Read
Assistant RBA governor Christopher Kent and governor Michele Bullock. It is important for the RBA to be able to get different perspectives and talk privately with people outside the bank.

Don’t turn the RBA’s private talks into a fishbowl

Not allowing the central bank to test its thinking with people in financial markets will leave us with much less well-informed monetary policy decision-makers and, thus, worse monetary policy decisions.

  • John Simon
Buildings on the shore of Lake Ontario in Toronto.

Canada’s housing affordability crisis to linger ‘for a decade’

Interest rates are just one factor keeping Canadians out of housing and cheaper money alone won’t shift the dial, experts say.

  • Promit Mukherjee
Assistant RBA governor Christopher Kent and the central bank’s governor, Michele Bullock, at a parliamentary hearing in June.

RBA gives RBC Capital Markets private briefing, bars bank after leak

The incident is the second off-the-record discussion between the central bank and traders that has been made public. It was held after a February rate decision.

  • Mark Di Stefano and John Kehoe

Sydney’s home values on course to fall in the coming months

The sharp rise in listings along with high interest rates and worsening housing affordability has slowed price growth across the board.

  • Nila Sweeney

September

The bulls are ending the year firmly in control.

Markets are on their best behaviour as the bulls take charge

The Fed is cutting interest rates and China’s policymakers are pumping its economy with money. Is there anything standing in the way of global sharemarkets?

  • Jonathan Shapiro
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has rebuffed calls to ease mortgage lending laws after Coalition MPs and ANZ warned prospective homebuyers were struggling to get finance.

Lending laws locking out home buyers: Bendigo bank

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has rebuffed calls to ease mortgage lending laws after Coalition MPs and ANZ warned prospective home buyers were struggling to get finance.

  • Michael Read and Lucas Baird
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Property prices and credit growth have remained very resilient in the face of higher rates.

Why the strong housing market is still a problem for the RBA

Booming credit demand from wealthier borrowers is more proof that housing is still humming along. That could crimp the RBA’s ability to cut.

  • James Thomson
Finding its footing: A pedestrian on Wall Street near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024.

Riskiest real estate bonds are beating Nvidia’s returns

It’s a turnaround few could have predicted when landlords around the world were creaking under the weight of higher interest rates and changing work habits.

  • Tasos Vossos
Suddenly, markets are back at levels last seen during the speculative frenzy of 2021.

The ‘everything bubble’ is back. Here are five dangers to watch

Thanks to the Fed and China, markets are back at the levels reached during the 2021 frenzy. But it might not take much for investors to let a little air out.

  • James Thomson
There is a real risk of Australia falling into a technical recession.

There’s a ‘very real’ chance of two rate cuts by Christmas

Momentum is critical and right now, Australia’s economy is at genuine risk of stalling. It’s no surprise then that the bond market has already priced in rate cuts.

  • Angus Coote

Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, consumer spending edge higher

The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy items, increased 0.1 per cent from July.

  • Matthew Boesler

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/topic/interest-rates-5yo