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Yoga, isolation or a ‘shadow’ board? How economists predict RBA calls

Yoga, isolation or a ‘shadow’ board? How economists predict RBA calls

The art of forecasting what the central bank will do with interest rates is a difficult one, and it turns out everyone has a different approach.

Warren Hogan, Su-Lin Ong, George Tharenou and Luci Ellis are some of the most experienced interest rate forecasters in the country. Bethany Rae

It’s the morning before a Reserve Bank of Australia board meeting, and one of the country’s top economists, Su-Lin Ong, is at yoga. The chief economist at RBC Capital Markets, like her peers, has already made a call on whether the central bank will cut, hold or raise rates. This is game day.

For economists like Ong, the accuracy of their predictions is key. Their clients – both internal and external – want to know what the RBA will decide even before its board has met. That information could influence hiring decisions, spending decisions, lending, and even the RBA’s own call.

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Luke Kinsella
Luke KinsellaReporterLuke Kinsella is a journalist for The Australian Financial Review.

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Original URL: https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/yoga-isolation-or-a-shadow-board-how-economists-predict-rba-calls-20250710-p5me2q