Yesterday
Relief rally sweeps market after cool inflation tempers rate fears
Shares had the best day since 2022, the Aussie dollar fell, and bond yields tumbled after core inflation prompted traders to rapidly start pricing in a rate cut in Australia.
- Joshua Peach and Sarah Jones
RBA rate rise off the table as inflation not so bad
Investors believe the next move by the RBA will be an interest rate cut rather than a rise, after underlying inflation came in only slightly above forecasts.
- Updated
- Michael Read
- Opinion
- Inflation
Inflation stays sticky, but it won’t force RBA rate rise
The consumer price figures were not as bad as feared, but inflation remains persistent and higher-for-longer interest rates will be required.
- John Kehoe
July
The price rises creating a big dilemma for the RBA
High inflation for items that interest rates have little control over, such as education, healthcare and insurance, will force the RBA to consider squashing harder on the prices of other items.
- John Kehoe
Inflation to test RBA’s interest rate strategy – and credibility
Consumer price figures this week are expected to show inflation has overshot the Reserve Bank’s forecasts for nine of the past 12 months.
- John Kehoe
The inflation number that could trigger an interest rate rise
The RBA will struggle to justify keeping the cash rate on hold if consumer price index figures next week show underlying inflation stuck above 4 per cent.
- Michael Read
Building costs creating ‘difficult’ choice on rates for RBA: Bullock
Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has warned the economy has arrived at a “difficult” point where there are cases for and against another rate rise.
- Michael Read
Bond market dials up US rate cut bets; RBA left behind
Goldman Sachs says there is now “solid rationale” for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this month. It’s a different picture in Australia, where markets are still pricing in a rate rise.
- Sarah Jones
June
- Opinion
- Interest rates
The RBA is walking a tightrope between inflation and jobs
As Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser said on Thursday, it’s a mistake to change policy on one piece of data. But it is an egregious folly to ignore serial indications of sticky inflation.
- Stephen Miller
- Analysis
- Interest rates
How the RBA’s big interest rate experiment exposes Labor
The moment of truth to test Australian exceptionalism is about to arrive. Persistent local inflation suggests the strategy is coming under pressure and may be about to come unstuck.
- John Kehoe
Multiple interest rate rises needed to quash inflation
The hawkish warnings from economists came as the share of borrowers falling behind on repaying their home loan has risen to the highest level in five years.
- John Kehoe
- Opinion
- Interest rates
RBA edges closer to interest rate rise as inflation proves sticky
Governor Michele Bullock will be troubled by the latest inflation data, and contemplating the real possibility of an interest rate rise at the August meeting.
- Updated
- John Kehoe
GyG’s winning bank; PM addresses gas risk; It’s Bullock v burritos
Read everything that’s happened in the news so far today.
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
Bullock v the burritos: $3b float speaks to the RBA’s nagging problem
Central banks have a problem: rate hikes are slowing the economy, but a wealth effect from housing and shares is keeping inflation sticky.
- James Thomson
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
Central bankers doing their best to silence rate cut hopes
Investors are responding to high rates with a novel investment strategy – keeping the bulk of their money in cash and using the rest to punt on AI stocks.
- Karen Maley
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Bullock tiptoes through a political minefield
The Reserve Bank governor has been trying to avoid blaming Canberra and state government budgetary blowouts for fuelling inflation.
- Karen Maley
- Opinion
- The AFR View
RBA holds, but has it done enough?
Even with this tightening bias, the longer inflation remains above target, the more the Reserve Bank’s credibility is challenged.
- The AFR View
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
RBA’s narrow path is getting narrower. Blame the housing market
The RBA’s concern is that rising household wealth – thanks in large part to strong house price growth – could keep inflation stickier than it wants.
- James Thomson
RBA warns on budget spending surge
The board warned that big-spending government budgets risked stoking demand, and conceded inflation was proving stickier than expected.
- Michael Read
- Exclusive
- Interest rates
Chalmers’ budget is expansionary: RBA analysis
Labor’s third budget adds more money into the economy this year than it takes out, making it ‘slightly expansionary’, according to RBA research.
- Michael Read and Ronald Mizen