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Monetary policy

November

A hot inflation report has prompted Barrenjoey to forecast a rate hike by May 2026.

RBA rate hikes are coming next year after red-hot inflation

Economists and the bond market have flipped on the outlook for interest rates in 2026 after a “shocker” of an inflation report that wrong-footed everyone.

To some, like Jamie Dimon, it’s a question of not if, but when.

Jamie Dimon is right. Alarm bells are ringing about the next GFC

The changes under way in the global financial system will be more consequential than the distortions wrought by Donald Trump.

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock and Treasurer Jim Chalmers.

IMF calls for Chalmers to give up RBA override power

The IMF says removing the veto power will strengthen the Reserve Bank’s independence, consistent with a key recommendation of the RBA review.

Plunging tech stocks pushed Wall Street to its sharpest fall in a month.

ASX slumps 1.4pc as fading rate cut hopes smash tech, bitcoin

Investors are fleeing some of the hottest pockets of financial markets amid doubts about monetary easing in the US and Australia.

RBA debuty governor Andrew Hauser said that the direction of the economy was uncertain, and that the RBA was facing an “unusual challenge”.

If you’re waiting for another rate cut, read this first

The lower speed limit means the economy cannot afford as much income growth for people, and that living standards will increase by less than in the past.

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The inflation spike and uptick in joblessness circle back to the fundamental supply-side problem at the heart of Australia’s economic malaise over the past decade: low productivity growth.

Economy’s flashing lights should drive Labor’s second-term agenda

Governments of both persuasions have dragged their feet on the measures needed to efficiently expand the economy, grow real wages and boost living standards.

RBA debuty governor Andrew Hauser said that the direction of the economy was uncertain, and that the RBA was facing an “unusual challenge”.

RBA warns economy may be ‘boxed in’ by low productivity

Deputy governor Andrew Hauser outlined two different pathways for the economy, and economists are divided on which is more likely.

The US Capitol has entered its 40th day of shutdown on Sunday, its longest in American history.

ASX to rise but investors brace for extended US shutdown uncertainty

Although futures point to a positive start for the ASX 200 on Monday, a lot is riding on a budget deal being struck in Washington.

The Treasurer’s stewardship of the central bank review process showed how reform can be both careful and bold. The next logical step is to extend that same discipline to the RBA’s financial foundations.

The RBA’s balance sheet could take until 2040s to heal

A single decision by the treasurer to restore the central bank’s capital would ensure the RBA is truly a bank “fit for the future”.

Shoppers in Pitt Street Mall in Sydney. Inflation was far higher than the central bank expected, leading to fears rates would not be cut.

The RBA’s pessimism hasn’t swayed these economists from rate cut calls

The central bank painted a bleak picture of higher inflation as it cautioned against further easing. Plenty of people in the market disagree with its forecasts.

RBA governor Michele Bullock doesn’t want to provide forward guidance, but comments on jobs and inflation suggest rates will be higher for longer.

Why the RBA is on alert but not alarmed about its big inflation miss

The Reserve Bank won’t be cutting interest rates any time soon after one of its worst forecasting errors on inflation since the 1990s.

Michele Bullock’s RBA says house prices have already increased more than expected.

House prices, tradie shortages, banks torpedo rate cuts

Of all the examples Michele Bullock could have given to describe how capacity in the economy works, she chose a tradesperson. What are the chances?

After inflation came in hotter than expected last week, reaching the top of the RBA’s target band, the central bank has held interest rates at 3.6 per cent.

Bullock flags end to rate cut cycle amid high inflation, jobless spike

The Reserve Bank decision comes after “materially higher” inflation and the jobless rate both exceeded its expectations for the September quarter.

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The next RBA rate move is more likely to be up than down

An unexpectedly hot inflation report has changed the game for the Reserve Bank. During such big surprises, there are typically two responses from the market.

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock is facing a real rate dilemma.

Why the RBA’s rate decision will make inflation only worse

Economists say the Reserve Bank needs to take a tougher stance on inflation because the real interest rate is pushing house prices and equities to record levels.

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The RBA Governor needs to do what she does best. She needs to be straight with the Australian people.

RBA must make it clear that inflation means higher interest rates

The governor needs to say it as it is: in the absence of a significant shift in the trajectory of the economy, we will probably need to raise the cash rate.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock explains the RBA board decision to lower rates.

Why were we all too optimistic on interest rates?

Until last week, a Melbourne Cup Day rate cut was a sure bet. Now we’re not even sure the next move will be down. So why did we all believe rates would fall?

October

Fed chairman Jerome Powell lowered the policy rate for the second time this year.

Time to rethink rate bets as Fed caution ‘creeps back in’

Fed chairman Jerome Powell signalled that strong differing views among voting members means that further easing in December “is not a foregone conclusion”.

Governor Michele Bullock delivered a blunt message on inflation earlier this week.

RBA may be done and dusted on rates after ‘ugly’ inflation

Bond traders have all but ruled out any chance of a rate cut before Christmas after a red-hot inflation report stunned financial markets.

The jump in annual underlying inflation to 3 per cent will worry the Reserve Bank. It crosses governor Michele Bullock’s red line for a “material miss”.

The trend that will worry the RBA most about higher inflation

Sensing stronger consumer demand, businesses appear to be more confident about passing on higher costs, such as wages and electricity.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/topic/monetary-policy-5zu