This Month
Bank of England pauses rate cuts as inflation picks up
The BoE did not join its rate-cutting peers in the US and Europe because, despite a flatlining economy, prices and wages have gathered pace.
- Hans van Leeuwen
Traders dial up bets for February RBA rate cut
Money markets are slowly dialling up expectations for an early cut from the Reserve Bank in 2025. It’s a different story for New Zealand, which is now in a recession.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort and Sarah Jones
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
The Fed just killed the Santa rally
Jerome Powell gave investors a rate cut. But what sent Wall Street plunging was his message for 2025.
- James Thomson
Star pick for RBA board backed lower interest rates
Renee Fry-McKibbin was a monetary policy dove in 2022, according to Barrenjoey, backing in a low cash rate even as the central bank delivered supersized hikes.
- Michael Read
- Opinion
- The AFR View
Credit to Chalmers for non-partisan RBA picks
The Coalition’s fears that a Labor treasurer would stack the new board with political appointees have not been borne out. The crucial independence and credibility of the central bank have been preserved.
- The AFR View
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Credible appointments will improve Reserve Bank board
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has selected two good candidates and should be congratulated for shoring up the RBA at a pivotal time in the inflation fight.
- John Kehoe
Chalmers brings former bank CEO, economist on board in RBA overhaul
The appointment of ANU professor Renée Fry-McKibbin and former Bendigo Bank boss Marnie Baker sets the scene for the biggest shake-up of the central bank in decades.
- Updated
- Michael Read and John Kehoe
RBA could accept lower unemployment without inflation risk: economists
Others warn the jobs market may now be running too hot, and a longer period of elevated interest rates will be required.
- John Kehoe and Michael Read
ECB cuts rates for the third straight time
The European Central Bank indicated more cuts are to come as it sought to prop up the bloc’s struggling economy.
- Mark Schroers, Jana Randow and Alexander Weber
- Updated
- Inflation
US inflation ticks up but Fed ready for rate cut
Consumer prices rose 2.7 per cent in the year to November, up from 2.6 per cent in October, lifting the probability of another quarter point cut.
- Updated
- Matthew Cranston
Trump trade war would be felt in Australia, RBA says
Tariffs would have very little impact on the Australian economy, but there are bigger risks from any US-China trade war, Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser says.
- John Kehoe
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Dovish turn as RBA gains confidence in inflation fight
The Reserve Bank board has noticed that parts of the economy such as consumer spending and wage growth have been a bit softer than anticipated.
- John Kehoe
Bond traders eye back-to-back rate cuts
The Reserve Bank surprised the market by dropping a long repeated phrase that kept rate hikes still on the cards. Traders are now rapidly adjusting their expectations.
- Cecile Lefort
- Exclusive
- Interest rates
Former US Fed vice chairman urges more RBA independence
Randal Quarles, a Donald Trump appointee who resigned from the central bank in 2021, said Australia should follow the American system.
- Matthew Cranston
- Opinion
- Interest rates
The markets have got it wrong (again) on rate cuts
Bond traders are fully priced for some relief by April 2025 thanks to a couple of surprising data points. But it’s always the coldest just before sunrise.
- Warren Hogan
- Analysis
- Australian economy
Australia’s economic problems have been brewing for years
We are in the most prolonged downturn since the 1991 recession. It’s time for a treasurer to do something about it.
- John Kehoe
- Opinion
- Opinion
Michele Bullock could be the Maradona of Australian central banking
The Reserve Bank governor is weaving through the inflation challenge with a hawkish comment here, a dovish quip there and a steady interest rate.
- Paul Bloxham
- Opinion
- Interest rates
The Reserve Bank is not smashing the jobs market
Claims the central bank is needlessly throwing vulnerable Australians out of work are not backed up by the statistics.
- John Kehoe
Auld named chief economist at NAB, replacing Oster
Sally Auld will be National Australia Bank’s next economics chief following the retirement of Alan Oster after 32 years in the role.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- RBA
Chalmers should pick ‘superforecasters’ for the new RBA board
The ideal member would have a deep and broad knowledge of many disciplines and be more likely to contribute to better predictions.
- Huw McKay