Today
- Opinion
- Australian economy
Our one-trick pony economy can’t keep behaving like this
Population, employment, and government spending are growing faster than the economy can absorb. It is the spending that has to give for a while.
- Tony Shepherd
This Month
- Opinion
- The AFR View
RBA must make rules of engagement explicit
The central bank should keep on talking to bankers, market economists, and politicians. But it needs transparent rules to guide it when it does.
- The AFR View
- Opinion
- Opinion
Don’t turn the RBA’s private talks into a fishbowl
Not allowing the central bank to test its thinking with people in financial markets will leave us with much less well-informed monetary policy decision-makers and, thus, worse monetary policy decisions.
- John Simon
September
There’s a ‘very real’ chance of two rate cuts by Christmas
Momentum is critical and right now, Australia’s economy is at genuine risk of stalling. It’s no surprise then that the bond market has already priced in rate cuts.
- Angus Coote
- Opinion
- RBA
RBA’s Bullock now has a bigger megaphone. But what should she say?
It’s possible the inflation problem is not about overheated demand, but rather the supply bottlenecks caused by lagging productivity.
- Michael Stutchbury
Why a rising $A is good news for the RBA and rate cuts
The Australian dollar has leapt US5¢ since August and is expected to climb further as other central banks cut interest rates and the RBA stays put.
- Cecile Lefort
Ex-RBA governor Lowe joins Barrenjoey board
In February 2023 Philip Lowe found himself in hot water after accepting a lunch invite from Barrenjoey. This week he joined the start-up investment bank’s board.
- Jonathan Shapiro
- Opinion
- Inflation
Government spending blowout is the size of the mining boom
Like the mining investment boom of the early 2000s, the economic shock from higher government spending will have implications for inflation, productivity and interest rates.
- John Kehoe
RBA explores Plan B shake-up on managing ‘big risks’
RBA governor Michele Bullock is developing a back-up plan to manage “big operational risks” such as cybersecurity in the likelihood that the proposed shake-up of the central bank’s board fails.
- John Kehoe and Michael Read
Traders up bets on RBA December rate cut, ignoring Bullock
The bond market is sticking with its prediction of some rate relief by Christmas, despite governor Michele Bullock saying that inflation remains “too high”.
- Cecile Lefort
Inflation to hit three-year low, but don’t expect a rate cut: Bullock
Michele Bullock says she will ignore data on Wednesday that is likely to show inflation back in target band, warning government energy rebates will not bring forward a rate cut.
- Updated
- Michael Read
Markets cheer China stimulus, but pundits warn it’s no ‘bazooka’
Iron ore futures surged 6 per cent, triggering a rally in ASX mining stocks, but China’s latest support package may not have a lasting impact on commodity prices.
- Alex Gluyas
China unleashes stimulus blitz to hit annual growth goal
The central bank announced a cut to the amount of money banks must hold in reserve, taking it to the lowest level since at least 2020. It also cut a key policy rate.
- Updated
- Wenjin Lv and Alan Wong
Kashkari backs two more Fed rate cuts
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis president Neel Kashkari says he expects two more quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed this year.
- Catarina Saraiva
‘Greens are out of control’: RBA reform dead as Labor rejects demands
Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ plan to create a specialist monetary policy board at the Reserve Bank is dead after the government ruled out working with the Greens.
- Updated
- Michael Read
- Analysis
- Analysis
Did central banks get the inflation crisis right?
Rate-cutting cycles in recent decades – such as in the early 2000s, or during the financial crisis of 2007 – have tended to be associated with steep economic downturns.
- Sam Fleming, Colby Smith and Olaf Storbeck
- Opinion
- RBA
Suddenly the RBA seems very isolated
Australia’s central bank looks neither hawk nor dove on monetary policy. It seems more of a shag on a rock in a sea of interest rate cuts.
- Warren Hogan
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Don’t expect a victory speech from Michele Bullock any time soon
Rate cuts have begun and the Federal Reserve estimates the US cash rate closer to 3 per cent next year. But where does that leave Australia?
- Tim Hext
- Opinion
- RBA
Rate cuts herald risky new regime
Financial markets have entered a dangerous new economic environment defined by unusually elevated uncertainty after the US Federal Reserve’s pivot this week.
- Christopher Joye
Bank of England holds fire on rate cuts after Fed’s bazooka round
Facing less pressure from its economy or jobs market, the BoE is expected to wait until November to unleash a second interest rate cut.
- Hans van Leeuwen