November
RBA rate hikes are coming next year after red-hot inflation
Economists and the bond market have flipped on the outlook for interest rates in 2026 after a “shocker” of an inflation report that wrong-footed everyone.
Jamie Dimon is right. Alarm bells are ringing about the next GFC
The changes under way in the global financial system will be more consequential than the distortions wrought by Donald Trump.
IMF calls for Chalmers to give up RBA override power
The IMF says removing the veto power will strengthen the Reserve Bank’s independence, consistent with a key recommendation of the RBA review.
ASX slumps 1.4pc as fading rate cut hopes smash tech, bitcoin
Investors are fleeing some of the hottest pockets of financial markets amid doubts about monetary easing in the US and Australia.
If you’re waiting for another rate cut, read this first
The lower speed limit means the economy cannot afford as much income growth for people, and that living standards will increase by less than in the past.
Economy’s flashing lights should drive Labor’s second-term agenda
Governments of both persuasions have dragged their feet on the measures needed to efficiently expand the economy, grow real wages and boost living standards.
RBA warns economy may be ‘boxed in’ by low productivity
Deputy governor Andrew Hauser outlined two different pathways for the economy, and economists are divided on which is more likely.
ASX to rise but investors brace for extended US shutdown uncertainty
Although futures point to a positive start for the ASX 200 on Monday, a lot is riding on a budget deal being struck in Washington.
The RBA’s balance sheet could take until 2040s to heal
A single decision by the treasurer to restore the central bank’s capital would ensure the RBA is truly a bank “fit for the future”.
The RBA’s pessimism hasn’t swayed these economists from rate cut calls
The central bank painted a bleak picture of higher inflation as it cautioned against further easing. Plenty of people in the market disagree with its forecasts.
Why the RBA is on alert but not alarmed about its big inflation miss
The Reserve Bank won’t be cutting interest rates any time soon after one of its worst forecasting errors on inflation since the 1990s.
House prices, tradie shortages, banks torpedo rate cuts
Of all the examples Michele Bullock could have given to describe how capacity in the economy works, she chose a tradesperson. What are the chances?
Bullock flags end to rate cut cycle amid high inflation, jobless spike
The Reserve Bank decision comes after “materially higher” inflation and the jobless rate both exceeded its expectations for the September quarter.
The next RBA rate move is more likely to be up than down
An unexpectedly hot inflation report has changed the game for the Reserve Bank. During such big surprises, there are typically two responses from the market.
Why the RBA’s rate decision will make inflation only worse
Economists say the Reserve Bank needs to take a tougher stance on inflation because the real interest rate is pushing house prices and equities to record levels.
RBA must make it clear that inflation means higher interest rates
The governor needs to say it as it is: in the absence of a significant shift in the trajectory of the economy, we will probably need to raise the cash rate.
Why were we all too optimistic on interest rates?
Until last week, a Melbourne Cup Day rate cut was a sure bet. Now we’re not even sure the next move will be down. So why did we all believe rates would fall?
October
Time to rethink rate bets as Fed caution ‘creeps back in’
Fed chairman Jerome Powell signalled that strong differing views among voting members means that further easing in December “is not a foregone conclusion”.
RBA may be done and dusted on rates after ‘ugly’ inflation
Bond traders have all but ruled out any chance of a rate cut before Christmas after a red-hot inflation report stunned financial markets.
The trend that will worry the RBA most about higher inflation
Sensing stronger consumer demand, businesses appear to be more confident about passing on higher costs, such as wages and electricity.