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Monetary policy

This Month

Future Fund chief executive Raphael Arndt is watching the growing US fiscal deficit.

Future Fund bets on US economy, warns of inflation return

CEO Raphael Arndt says the US economy is an attractive investment but Donald Trump’s policies and geopolitical risks could see the return of inflation.

  • Cecile Lefort
A shopper in New York. “Elevated inflation and rising rates in the United States could negatively affect domestic economic activity,” the Fed noted.

US inflation stays firm for third month with 0.3pc core CPI gain

The figures, along with strong consumer spending and economic growth, will keep Fed officials cautious as they debate how quickly to reduce borrowing costs.

  • Molly Smith
Christian Baylis says a rising US dollar under Donald Trump will make it more difficult for the RBA to cut interest rates.

Interest rates on hold until 2026 not ‘inconceivable’

Expectations of inflationary tariffs from president-elect Donald Trump could result in no interest rate relief in Australia next year, warn analysts.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort
The Bank of England is hoping for a soft landing for the UK economy.

Bank of England cuts interest rates again, keeps counsel on Trump

The BoE boss warned that the inflation fight wasn’t won, and said it was too early to tell how Trump’s presidency might shift the global economy.

  • Hans van Leeuwen
Melbourne house prices have risen by more than two-thirds in a decade.

RBA rate call kicks delayed spring market into next year

The east coast-dominated housing markets have been holding out hope for relief on borrowing costs. None came on Wednesday.

  • Michael Bleby
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RBA governor Michel Bullock says inflation is still too high, prompting more traders to taper rate cut bets.

Bond markets trim rate cut bets on RBA’s inflation woes

The chance of relief this year has diminished after the Reserve Bank of Australia warned that price hikes were still too high, forcing traders to scramble.

  • Cecile Lefort
Should the RBA join its peers and stop worrying about food price inflation?

What is the Reserve Bank waiting for? The data says cut

If Martin Place insists on holding the cash rate until unemployment rises substantially, it risks plunging Australia into a painful recession.

  • Craig Emerson
Judo Bank’s Warren Hogan is tipping the first RBA rate cut in November 2025.

Economist Warren Hogan abandons RBA rate rise call

Warren Hogan at Judo was the only economist tipping a rate rise. He is now calling for a rate cut, but not until November 2025.

  • Cecile Lefort
The gold price has already run 30 per cent this year.

Here’s why gold has so much further to run

Gold has already risen 30 per cent this year to record levels, but there is still one ingredient missing that has been evident in previous bull markets, which could propel prices even higher.

  • Arian Neiron

October

Sticky inflation means little chance of an interest rate relief this year.

Stubborn inflation dashes market hopes for early rate cuts

Traders bet the RBA will not cut rates before May but cost-of-living relief ahead of elections could complicate the outlook.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort
NAB’s Rodrigo Catrill says uncertainty with the outcome of next week’s US election has weighed on the local currency.

$A will ‘struggle to punch higher’ as US election weighs on sentiment

The local currency has declined for four consecutive weeks as nervous investors pile into the greenback one week out from the US election that one national poll has Donald Trump ahead.

  • Joanne Tran
A conscious decision by Michele Bullock and Andrew Hauser to balance inflation and unemployment.

Why interest rates will not fall soon – or by much when they do

Rising demand for investment capital to fund things like the green revolution will keep the price of money higher than it was.

  • Richard Holden
Traders have pushed back the timing of the first interest rate cut by the Reseve Bank well into next year.

Bonds markets ‘belted’ by rate cut jitters and Trump

US and Australian bond yields have climbed to three-month highs as investors dialled back the pace of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank and the Fed.

  • Cecile Lefort
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Yellen takes aim at Trump for making ‘world worse off’

The US Treasury Secretary offered barely veiled criticism of Donald Trump’s economic policy, saying the Biden administration had restored US growth.

  • Fatima Hussein
Bank of Canada is the next in line to cut interest rates by a widely expected jumbo half-a-point move this week.

RBA left behind as central banks unleash jumbo rate cuts

Canada is the next in line to slash rates this week as policymakers take more aggressive action to arrest rapidly slowing growth. It’s a very different story in Australia.

  • Cecile Lefort
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Deserted cities: most do not understand that inflation was caused by the stimulus that saved them in the pandemic.

Why the RBA has a massive public education job to do

Inflation is high because of the stimulus that Canberra and the RBA poured on in the pandemic. But the public struggles to understand this.

  • Michael Stutchbury
European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde.

ECB cuts rates again as euro zone economy stagnates

The European Central Bank offered its first back-to-back rate cut in 13 years - in a shift to protecting economic growth.

  • Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi

Why chocolate bars are about to get pricier before Christmas

The prices of chocolate, sugar and orange juice are on the rise, creating an even bigger inflation headache for the RBA.

  • Cecile Lefort

RBA blowing financial stability bubble

Household leverage has declined in the US and Europe, but the lax approach of Australia’s central bank has fuelled a record increase in household debt.

  • Christopher Joye
Annual inflation in the United States slowed to 7.7 per cent last month, the lowest since January.

US inflation miss unlikely to deter rate cuts

Consumer prices rose a slightly faster-than-expected 0.2 per cent from August to September, a potential challenge to policymakers and Kamala Harris.

  • Matthew Cranston

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/topic/monetary-policy-5zu