Today
- Opinion
- RBA
Even small RBA rate cuts will fuel election spending
Any monetary easing this month will embolden more cash-burning by politicians, and therefore have important political and economic ramifications.
- John Kehoe
This Month
Meet the most accurate economic forecaster of 2024
The Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate, according to Paul Bloxham, but don’t count on a big drop in borrowing costs as this cycle will be a short one.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
January
What interest rate cuts will mean for your money
February is firming as the month that the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate, which will have flow-on effects for shares, property and term deposits.
- Michelle Bowes
US Fed cools rate cut talk as prospects of RBA easing balloon
If Michele Bullock holds the cash rate steady on February 18, it will represent the most counter-consensus decision since that of Glenn Stevens in April 2015.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Opinion
Jerome Powell held. So should Michele Bullock
The US Federal Reserve held rates constant as it waited to see what policies Trump implements. The Reserve Bank should also wait until after our election and it knows what policies will be implemented here.
- Updated
- Ed Shann
Major banks close to consensus on February interest rate cut call
Traders imply an 80 per cent chance of an interest rate cut next month to 4.1 per cent though the Reserve Bank could opt to wait for more data.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Inflation
February rate cut on the table, but not a done deal
There is a plausible reason to cut interest rates next month, but also a reasonable case to hold steady and await more information on the economy.
- John Kehoe
Die-hard bond traders bet the next Fed move is higher, not lower
A blowout US jobs report has prompted a small corner of the bond market to start pricing in the possibility of rate hike in the US this year.
- Liz Capo McCormick and Ye Xie
US core inflation slows, reviving hopes for lower rates
While headline CPI edged higher last month, core prices slowed, renewing bets that policymakers can keep lowering interest rates.
- Christopher Rugaber
Bond turmoil won’t derail RBA’s rate cut plan
Despite bond yields spiking around the world, analysts say the Reserve Bank is still on track to cut interest rates this year.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Bonds
A February interest rate cut is a goer if RBA changes one thing
Should the Reserve Bank downwardly revise its 4.5 per cent estimate of full employment, the first reduction will happen in just a few weeks.
- Stephen Miller
ANZ joins forecasters betting on February RBA rate cut
It and Commonwealth Bank agree that mortgage holders may finally get some relief next month, but they are the only two majors predicting that.
- Joshua Peach and Cecile Lefort
Soft inflation data brings February rate cut into sight
Economists and markets are increasingly confident the RBA will cut the cash rate in February after price pressures cooled further in November.
- Updated
- Michael Read
- Opinion
- Inflation
RBA should cut rates and not be fooled by trimmed mean inflation
The actual inflation rate Australian consumers and businesses feel is now within the designated target range of 2-3 per cent. The RBA should not ignore this.
- Craig Emerson
Why the falling $A could delay RBA rate cuts
The Aussie dollar hit a fresh two-year low, prompting strategists to raise the alarm that it will hold up inflation and may delay the first RBA rate cut of 2025.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Reserve Bank rate cut hopes skirt federal election decider
Stubborn inflation, a tight jobs market and weak productivity thwarted interest rate relief in 2024. The Financial Review’s economist survey predicts that will change in May.
- Cecile Lefort
December 2024
Bank of England pauses rate cuts as inflation picks up
The BoE did not join its rate-cutting peers in the US and Europe because, despite a flatlining economy, prices and wages have gathered pace.
- Hans van Leeuwen
Traders dial up bets for February RBA rate cut
Money markets are slowly dialling up expectations for an early cut from the Reserve Bank in 2025. It’s a different story for New Zealand, which is now in a recession.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort and Sarah Jones
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
The Fed just killed the Santa rally
Jerome Powell gave investors a rate cut. But what sent Wall Street plunging was his message for 2025.
- James Thomson
Star pick for RBA board backed lower interest rates
Renee Fry-McKibbin was a monetary policy dove in 2022, according to Barrenjoey, backing in a low cash rate even as the central bank delivered supersized hikes.
- Michael Read