Today
Markets bet on several RBA rate rises in 2026
RBA governor Michele Bullock has triggered a huge repricing of rate expectations. Financial markets are now fully priced for a cash rate increase by May next year.
Yesterday
RBA is worried it cut interest rates too far
Michele Bullock is ringing the alarm on “upside” inflation risks and openly talking about the plausibility of raising interest rates next year.
RBA is caught in Ray Dalio’s doom loop
The Reserve Bank says the Australian economy’s delicate balance means setting rates only gets harder. But there’s a bigger global story at play here.
Bullock puts nation on notice about rate rises
The decision to keep interest rates unchanged was expected by economists, but was overshadowed by a more wary tone on inflation from Bullock.
This Month
ASX to fall on rate rise fears even as Wall Street cheers Fed cuts
Shares will open lower on Monday as traders ramp up bets the RBA will lift rates next year. Meanwhile, US stocks are near records on rate cut expectations.
Politicians must cut spending to avoid interest rate increases
The challenge for the monetary policy mandarins is that politicians are pumping the economy full of more and more unproductive cash, driving inflation higher.
RBA rate hike bets jump amid global bond sell-off
The possibility of a rate increase in Japan has triggered a rout in bond markets around the world.
November
RBA rate hikes are coming next year after red-hot inflation
Economists and the bond market have flipped on the outlook for interest rates in 2026 after a “shocker” of an inflation report that wrong-footed everyone.
Jamie Dimon is right. Alarm bells are ringing about the next GFC
The changes under way in the global financial system will be more consequential than the distortions wrought by Donald Trump.
IMF calls for Chalmers to give up RBA override power
The IMF says removing the veto power will strengthen the Reserve Bank’s independence, consistent with a key recommendation of the RBA review.
ASX slumps 1.4pc as fading rate cut hopes smash tech, bitcoin
Investors are fleeing some of the hottest pockets of financial markets amid doubts about monetary easing in the US and Australia.
If you’re waiting for another rate cut, read this first
The lower speed limit means the economy cannot afford as much income growth for people, and that living standards will increase by less than in the past.
Economy’s flashing lights should drive Labor’s second-term agenda
Governments of both persuasions have dragged their feet on the measures needed to efficiently expand the economy, grow real wages and boost living standards.
RBA warns economy may be ‘boxed in’ by low productivity
Deputy governor Andrew Hauser outlined two different pathways for the economy, and economists are divided on which is more likely.
ASX to rise but investors brace for extended US shutdown uncertainty
Although futures point to a positive start for the ASX 200 on Monday, a lot is riding on a budget deal being struck in Washington.
The RBA’s balance sheet could take until 2040s to heal
A single decision by the treasurer to restore the central bank’s capital would ensure the RBA is truly a bank “fit for the future”.
The RBA’s pessimism hasn’t swayed these economists from rate cut calls
The central bank painted a bleak picture of higher inflation as it cautioned against further easing. Plenty of people in the market disagree with its forecasts.
Why the RBA is on alert but not alarmed about its big inflation miss
The Reserve Bank won’t be cutting interest rates any time soon after one of its worst forecasting errors on inflation since the 1990s.
House prices, tradie shortages, banks torpedo rate cuts
Of all the examples Michele Bullock could have given to describe how capacity in the economy works, she chose a tradesperson. What are the chances?
Bullock flags end to rate cut cycle amid high inflation, jobless spike
The Reserve Bank decision comes after “materially higher” inflation and the jobless rate both exceeded its expectations for the September quarter.