Yesterday
US inflation rises to highest level since February
Consumer prices picked up for June, in line with economists’ expectations and likely marking the start of an increase in prices related to Donald Trump’s tariffs.
This Month
Why the Fed’s independence is worth fighting for
We should be both alert to and alarmed by political attacks on central banks and their implementation of monetary policy.
Big bank trading distortion leads to overpowered rate cut hopes
Major lenders are active in the market, hoping to protect themselves from short-term losses that arise from lower interest rates. Hedge funds sense opportunity.
Why the bond market got the RBA decision so wrong
Although the monetary policy board’s decision was a surprise and admittedly contestable, it is also defensible.
Which RBA board members voted for a rate cut?
At least two Labor appointees to the Reserve Bank monetary policy board almost certainly voted for a cut on Tuesday, former insiders believe.
Economists feel the burn of the RBA rate cut that wasn’t
Economics teams at some of the country’s most prominent financial institutions found themselves wrong-footed on Tuesday when the central bank decided to hold rates.
6 reasons the RBA’s interest rate hold will go down in history
Governor Michele Bullock took the rare step of thumbing her nose at almost every market economist and trader by holding rates steady.
Divided RBA shocks markets to hold cash rate at 3.85pc
The Reserve Bank wants to “wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5 per cent on a sustainable basis”.
Markets widely expect an RBA rate cut, except these 5 economists
Traders and economists broadly agree that the central bank will deliver a third reduction for the year. Some want it to wait for the outlook to become clearer.
Several rate cuts on the way after RBA meets this week
Economists have joined the market in tipping another rate cut on Tuesday, as the latest quarterly survey reveals that borrowing costs have much more to fall this year.
Will the real Reserve Bank governor please stand up
The RBA will almost certainly cut interest rates on Tuesday. But we don’t know which version of Michele Bullock will appear to explain the decision.
June
ASX eyes the best return since COVID-19 as momentum trade kicks in
The market is on track for gains of around 10 per cent this financial year, defying broadly held expectations that uncertainty would lead to sustained selling.
Why Australia’s productivity ‘wart’ may limit interest rate cuts
In the longer term it is difficult to square sluggish productivity growth against inflation remaining close to the middle of the RBA 2-3 per cent target range.
Markets asleep at the wheel as tariff D-Day looms
The Australian dollar and equities could tumble should the White House wrong foot markets by raising duties significantly on July 9, strategists warn.
Powell tells legislators he is in no rush to cut rates
There is no rush to lower rates as officials wait for more clarity on the economic impact of higher tariffs, says the US Federal Reserve chairman.
Trump’s next fight is the one that could really shake markets
The battle over who should be the next US Federal Reserve chairman is part of a problem that just won’t go away: the American debt crisis.
Oil shock could put RBA in a bind on rate cuts
Amid rising global tensions and higher oil prices, the Reserve Bank faces a delicate balancing act as it weighs interest rate cuts against creeping inflation.
RBA, Fed in no rush to cut interest rates, economists warn
Traders are betting big on US reductions despite the Federal Reserve hinting at higher inflation ahead. A solid jobs report has cast doubt in Australia.
Fed cuts outlook for US economy but holds rates
The Federal Reserve sees inflation worsening this year and officials are increasingly split about the direction of further rate cuts.
US dollar back as a safe haven? Not so fast
The greenback’s sudden resurgence may be more about oil prices and shifting global money than investors seeking safety from the escalating Middle East conflict.