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RBA

Today

Financial markets are overstating the probability of a rate cut at next week’s RBA board meeting.

Inflation has smashed profits, so a rate cut is no sure bet

Businesses have absorbed some cost increases through lower profitability. But that may soon change and could stall further progress towards the RBA’s inflation target.

  • Paul Brennan
The balancing act isn’t getting any easier for Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock.

Sticky US inflation just made the RBA’s cut call harder

Four months after the Fed cut rates, inflationary pressures appear to be building in the US. The lesson is unlikely to be lost on the Reserve Bank.

  • Updated
  • James Thomson
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Chemist Warehouse shares rise on debut; EY to slash jobs; Rate cut call just got harder

Read everything that’s happened in the news so far today.

RBA’s radio silence is a telling sign for next week

There’s a lot of money riding on the central bank’s rate decision. While the market and most economists are all but convinced, it’s still a line ball decision.

  • Cecile Lefort

Yesterday

Matt Comyn announces CBA results.

Why Comyn is cautious celebrating CBA’s bumper profit

Chief executive Matt Comyn has plenty to celebrate in the bank’s results. Unlike politicians, he prefers to avoid claiming much credit for that.

  • Jennifer Hewett
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Trump’s land grab is no real surprise

Readers’ letters on the US president’s property focus; when the RBA will cut rates; Mark Scott’s regrets; and risk management in energy projects.

This Month

Richard Quin at Bentham likes investing in state government bonds because of their juicy returns.

There’s a reason why investors are flocking to fund Australian states

State governments grappling with credit downgrades have no choice but to pay bond investors more money to fund their ambitious election promises.

  • Updated
  • Jonathan Shapiro and Cecile Lefort
President Trump’s threats of swinging tariffs bring to mind someone holding themselves hostage by turning a weapon on themselves.

Could Donald Trump’s tariffs trigger an Australian rate cut?

A global trade conflict might accelerate the RBA rate cut path rather than slow it down.

  • Stephen Miller
JB Hi-Fi shares just keep going up.

What we learnt: Why market darlings JB Hi-Fi and Carsales got hammered

A couple of ASX darlings and a comeback story have grabbed our attention as earnings season ramps up. Profits are good but what does it mean for the RBA meeting?

  • James Thomson and Anthony Macdonald
Michele Bullock, governor of the Reserve Bank.

There is no way the Reserve Bank can cut interest rates next week

The central bank would be well advised not to misjudge the politics. An easing of monetary policy would put more jobs and more inflation into the economy. Is that what people really want?

  • Warren Hogan
Owen Wilson has been the chief executive of REA Group for six years.

REA Group boss Owen Wilson quits after delivering bumper earnings

The company is the country’s largest property listings platform. Profits rose by more than a quarter in the six months to December 31, it told investors.

  • Updated
  • Michael Bleby
Armaguard was excluded from a meeting at the RBA on Wednesday.

Major banks ready to carry Westpac’s Armaguard load

The banks and regulators met on Wednesday afternoon without the cash transit monopoly to work out how to replace Westpac’s unique cash distribution operation.

  • James Eyers
The RBA found company tax cuts are probably more effective than instant asset write-offs promoted by both Labor and the Coalition.

Business tax breaks don’t spur investment: RBA

The RBA found company tax cuts are probably more effective than instant asset write-offs promoted by both Labor and the Coalition.

  • Michael Read
Jo Masters at Barrenjoey says Trump tariffs are heightening uncertainty.

These five economists make a bold prediction on next rate cut

Analysts at Barrenjoey, Deloitte, KPMG, Judo Bank and Oxford Economics are tipping that the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold on February 18.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort
Michele Bullock will chair the RBA board meeting on February 17-18.

Even small RBA rate cuts will fuel election spending

Any monetary easing this month will embolden more cash-burning by politicians, and therefore have important political and economic ramifications.

  • John Kehoe
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Paul Bloxham, pictured in Sydney on Monday, loves talking about the economy. Growing up in Perth, he used to be a theatre kid.

Top forecaster Paul Bloxham says trade war changes the RBA path

HSBC’s chief economist says the RBA will only cut twice in 2025, beginning this month, and once in 2026.

  • Cecile Lefort
Moving cash became a financial drain for Armaguard given the dramatic fall in its use.

Westpac’s Armaguard deal complicates negotiations to save banknotes

The major banks are scheduled to meet with the Lindsay Fox-owned cash transportation business in the hope of keeping the company afloat and money circulating.

  • James Eyers
An Armaguard truck in Martin Place in Sydney. The RBA will host a meeting this week with the banks to discuss the plan for when its emergency funding runs out in five months.

Banks and Armaguard revisit life support for cash distributor

Banks expect Armaguard to confirm its banknote distribution operation is on rocky financial footing this week, but the future of the Linfox-owned business is anyone’s guess.

  • James Eyers

PM must take on premier

Readers’ letters on Donald Trump’s tariffs, the Reserve Bank’s next interest rate decision, West Australian Premier Roger Cook’s push against federal Nature Positive legislation and the teals’ financial backers.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks to the media at the Swinburne Tafe, Croydon.

Voters will be better off under Labor, PM promises – again

Anthony Albanese concedes he hasn’t been able to keep the same pledge he made three years ago, but insists this time will be different.

  • Phillip Coorey

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/topic/reserve-bank-of-australia-619