Donald Trump’s backdown from his trade war – and the financial market’s confidence that the peak of tariff fears are now behind us – played a crucial role in the Reserve Bank’s decision to shock the market by keeping official interest rates on hold earlier this month.

The release of the minutes from the RBA board’s meeting on July 7 and 8 also confirm that next week’s inflation data for the June quarter is the last thing standing between the central bank and rate cut next month.