Today
How an influx of Chinese goods to Australia could impact rate cuts
Barrenjoey’s Andrew Lilley argues that China’s rerouted goods to Australia from Donald Trump’s trade war will lift prices and force the Reserve Bank to be cautious about rapid rate cuts.
Yesterday
Unions jump on soft inflation to justify bigger minimum wage increase
The ACTU say its 4.5 per cent claim for 2.9 million workers won’t lift inflation and that the bigger threat for the Reserve Bank is small wage increases.
This Month
How AI and Wall Street beat Trump at his own game
Even if Mickey Mouse were president, the US would still be on the way to 4 per cent growth because private-sector innovation promises to offset bad policies and erratic policymaking.
April
Bond market too optimistic about rapid rate cuts, investors warn
Benign inflation data has boosted bets of a rate cut next month, but fund managers caution against the aggressive easing path implied by markets.
Is there a case for a jumbo-sized interest rate cut next month?
Given the cash rate is now 4.10 per cent, this suggests that the RBA board could deliver a 50 basis point cut in May and still leave policy mildly restrictive.
The RBA’s rate cuts are coming, but hold the avalanche
There’s one data point between Australians and a May rate cut and economists are tipping it should be fine. But what happens next is ripe for debate.
Inflation steady; $100b fund’s Trump plan; Ex-model running for One Nation
Read everything that’s happened in the news so far today.
Inflation result opens door to post-election rate cut
The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation has dipped below 3 per cent for the first time in three years, opening the door to a likely interest rate cut for the second time this year.
Trade war triggers record short positions in US dollar
Investors, including hedge funds, have piled into negative bets on the greenback.
ASX on knife-edge as investors wait for proof that RBA will cut rates
The S&P/ASX 200 will open flat in the lead-up to figures expected to show inflation back in the central bank’s target range for the first time in years.
Traders dial back chances of bumper RBA rate cut next month
Last week, markets had priced in a 40 per cent likelihood of a 50 basis point reduction, but the slow unwinding of trade tensions has changed expectations.
Calm in markets weakens case for a May rate cut
Some economists argue that a recovery in the ASX and the $A since the White House’s “liberation day” tariffs add to the case for the RBA to stand pat next month.
Australian dollar soars amid Trump-Fed tug of war
The Aussie climbed to the highest level since December after a brutal flight from US assets hit Wall Street and the greenback.
Morgan Stanley warns clients ASX will barely rise this year
The Wall Street investment bank’s comments come as futures point to a fall on the local benchmark on Tuesday and as investors eye US earnings this week.
Why the RBA won’t cut interest rates in May: economists
Judo Bank’s Warren Hogan is the latest to tip a rate cut in May because of Trump’s hefty tariffs on China, Australia’s top trading partner. But some still say rates will stay on hold.
Rebound or mirage? Aussie dollar faces global storm
The escalating US-China trade war and concerns about a global recession will weigh on the Australian dollar and could push it back below US59¢.
Investors are waking up to the fact no bailouts are coming
As Wall Street sank again and investors swam in a sea of red, Fed chairman Jerome Powell delivered the kicker the market really didn’t want to hear.
There’s a buying opportunity in commercial property, but it won’t last
Cashed-up commercial property investors that act fast can pick up assets at good prices.
Albanese offers first home buyers 5pc deposits, fuelling demand
The new policy is a dramatic expansion of the government’s first home guarantee scheme as Labor seeks to grab voters’ attention on the issue of housing.
Labor’s housing fund may need bailout after stock slump
Taxpayers could be forced to top up the $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund if financial markets do not recover in the next three months.