Yesterday
- Opinion
- Trump's White House
Trump isn’t bluffing on tariffs. He desperately needs cash
Don’t believe the “hopeium” that Donald Trump is bluffing on tariffs.
- Christopher Joye
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Why an RBA rate cut (which is 50/50) may trigger an early election
Bond traders reckon there’s a 90 per cent chance of an interest rate cut on Tuesday. In reality, it’s a coin toss and if the RBA does cut, don’t expect more anytime soon. All that adds up to an early election.
- John Kehoe
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
Three ways to reposition your portfolio for shifting markets
Beneath the drama of Donald Trump’s second coming, the most dearly held beliefs that have delivered huge returns to investors are suddenly being challenged.
- Updated
- James Thomson
This Month
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Inflation has smashed profits, so a rate cut is no sure bet
Businesses have absorbed some cost increases through lower profitability. But that may soon change and could stall further progress towards the RBA’s inflation target.
- Paul Brennan
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
Sticky US inflation just made the RBA’s cut call harder
Four months after the Fed cut rates, inflationary pressures appear to be building in the US. The lesson is unlikely to be lost on the Reserve Bank.
- Updated
- James Thomson
Chemist Warehouse shares rise on debut; EY to slash jobs; Rate cut call just got harder
Read everything that’s happened in the news so far today.
US CPI data points to prolonged rate hold: economists
Consumer prices rose at a faster pace than expected last month, and the probability of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has fallen, economists and strategists say.
- Timothy Moore
US inflation rises broadly, further denting rate cut prospects
Higher prices for car insurance, airfares and a record monthly increase in the cost of prescription drugs paced the rise in core prices.
- Augusta Saraiva
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
Investors should beware Trumping at shadows over tariffs
Be careful of buying or selling the rumour around the president’s policies before seeing the facts. Beware fake news.
- James Thomson
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
Musk’s DOGE madness could actually move markets. Here’s how
Elon Musk’s controversial Department of Government Efficiency is creating plenty of noise. Some in markets are starting to ask: what if it actually works?
- James Thomson
- Opinion
- Investing
Ignore what market says on rates and buy these assets instead
Traders are still pricing in less than half a percentage point of US interest rate cuts for 2025, but that assumption is flawed.
- Vimal Gor
Bank of England cuts key UK interest rate to 4.5pc
The latest reduction reflects some concern about the outlook for the British economy, which has barely grown over the past six months.
- Philip Aldrick, Tom Rees and Greg Ritchie
These five economists make a bold prediction on next rate cut
Analysts at Barrenjoey, Deloitte, KPMG, Judo Bank and Oxford Economics are tipping that the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold on February 18.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
What you can learn from the Future Fund’s three big moves
The Future Fund’s shift into US stock has paid off, but it still fears a Trumpian world of more polarisation and higher inflation.
- James Thomson
Meet the most accurate economic forecaster of 2024
The Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate, according to Paul Bloxham, but don’t count on a big drop in borrowing costs as this cycle will be a short one.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Top forecaster Paul Bloxham says trade war changes the RBA path
HSBC’s chief economist says the RBA will only cut twice in 2025, beginning this month, and once in 2026.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
Market panic may be the best protection against Trump’s tariff war
Investors were sure the “Art of the Deal” schtick would mean import duties would be avoided. Now they face a world of “uncontrollable chaos”.
- James Thomson
- Exclusive
- Federal election
Voters will be better off under Labor, PM promises – again
Anthony Albanese concedes he hasn’t been able to keep the same pledge he made three years ago, but insists this time will be different.
- Phillip Coorey
Key Fed inflation gauge ends 2024 with a muted advance
On a three-month annualised basis – seen as a more accurate picture of the trajectory of inflation – the core PCE price gauge rose 2.2 per cent, the least since July.
- Matthew Boesler
January
RBA rate cuts coming – but don’t expect a windfall
Economists say the tight jobs market and increasing government spending will mean the RBA will deliver just three or four rate cuts in total this year.
- Michael Read