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Inflation

Today

China needs its export strategy to succeed if it is to sustain even a moderate level of economic growth.

How an influx of Chinese goods to Australia could impact rate cuts

Barrenjoey’s Andrew Lilley argues that China’s rerouted goods to Australia from Donald Trump’s trade war will lift prices and force the Reserve Bank to be cautious about rapid rate cuts.

Yesterday

ACTU secretary Sally McManus (front left) and president Michele O’Neil (right).

Unions jump on soft inflation to justify bigger minimum wage increase

The ACTU say its 4.5 per cent claim for 2.9 million workers won’t lift inflation and that the bigger threat for the Reserve Bank is small wage increases.

This Month

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

How AI and Wall Street beat Trump at his own game

Even if Mickey Mouse were president, the US would still be on the way to 4 per cent growth because private-sector innovation promises to offset bad policies and erratic policymaking.

April

Michelle Bullock, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is widely expected to lower the cash rate next month.

Bond market too optimistic about rapid rate cuts, investors warn

Benign inflation data has boosted bets of a rate cut next month, but fund managers caution against the aggressive easing path implied by markets.

There could be an argument for a big rate cut based on taking pre-emptive action to manage risks from the trade war.

Is there a case for a jumbo-sized interest rate cut next month?

Given the cash rate is now 4.10 per cent, this suggests that the RBA board could deliver a 50 basis point cut in May and still leave policy mildly restrictive.

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The new battleground is how quickly the RBA cuts rates this year.

The RBA’s rate cuts are coming, but hold the avalanche

There’s one data point between Australians and a May rate cut and economists are tipping it should be fine. But what happens next is ripe for debate.

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Inflation steady; $100b fund’s Trump plan; Ex-model running for One Nation

Read everything that’s happened in the news so far today.

Shoppers at a supermarket.

Inflation result opens door to post-election rate cut

The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation has dipped below 3 per cent for the first time in three years, opening the door to a likely interest rate cut for the second time this year.

Trump wants to revitalise the US manufacturing industry.

Trade war triggers record short positions in US dollar

Investors, including hedge funds, have piled into negative bets on the greenback.

Workers in the Sydney CBD. The RBA will be looking at inflation figures before deciding whether to cut interest rates.

ASX on knife-edge as investors wait for proof that RBA will cut rates

The S&P/ASX 200 will open flat in the lead-up to figures expected to show inflation back in the central bank’s target range for the first time in years.

Cranes at the Port of Seattle. A rapid-fire trade war between China and the US had left the market expecting big rate cuts to shore up economic confidence.

Traders dial back chances of bumper RBA rate cut next month

Last week, markets had priced in a 40 per cent likelihood of a 50 basis point reduction, but the slow unwinding of trade tensions has changed expectations.

RBA governor Michele Bullock speaking at the World Bank/IMF spring meetings in Washington overnight.

Calm in markets weakens case for a May rate cut

Some economists argue that a recovery in the ASX and the $A since the White House’s “liberation day” tariffs add to the case for the RBA to stand pat next month.

The Australian dollar fell more than one US cent on Thursday after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed growing confidence in the American economy and looked towards increasing its interest rate some time in 2015.

Australian dollar soars amid Trump-Fed tug of war

The Aussie climbed to the highest level since December after a brutal flight from US assets hit Wall Street and the greenback.

The Sydney CBD. It will be a subdued week in the markets, but investors will be closely following US earnings.

Morgan Stanley warns clients ASX will barely rise this year

The Wall Street investment bank’s comments come as futures point to a fall on the local benchmark on Tuesday and as investors eye US earnings this week.

Warren Hogan has long argued against a rate cut. He has now changed his mind.

Why the RBA won’t cut interest rates in May: economists

Judo Bank’s Warren Hogan is the latest to tip a rate cut in May because of Trump’s hefty tariffs on China, Australia’s top trading partner. But some still say rates will stay on hold.

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The Australian dollar is poised to fall below US59¢, says CBA.

Rebound or mirage? Aussie dollar faces global storm

The escalating US-China trade war and concerns about a global recession will weigh on the Australian dollar and could push it back below US59¢.

The Powell put isn’t in sight yet. And the Trump one may be a way off too.

Investors are waking up to the fact no bailouts are coming

As Wall Street sank again and investors swam in a sea of red, Fed chairman Jerome Powell delivered the kicker the market really didn’t want to hear.

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There’s a buying opportunity in commercial property, but it won’t last

Cashed-up commercial property investors that act fast can pick up assets at good prices.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on the campaign trail with partner Jodie Haydon in Perth on Saturday.

Albanese offers first home buyers 5pc deposits, fuelling demand

The new policy is a dramatic expansion of the government’s first home guarantee scheme as Labor seeks to grab voters’ attention on the issue of housing.

Taxpayers could be forced to top up the $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund if financial markets do not recover in the next three months.

Labor’s housing fund may need bailout after stock slump

Taxpayers could be forced to top up the $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund if financial markets do not recover in the next three months.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/topic/inflation-1mph