NewsBite

Bonds

Today

RBA’s radio silence is a telling sign for next week

There’s a lot of money riding on the central bank’s rate decision. While the market and most economists are all but convinced, it’s still a line ball decision.

  • Cecile Lefort
US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a Senate hearing.

US CPI data points to prolonged rate hold: economists

Consumer prices rose at a faster pace than expected last month, and the probability of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has fallen, economists and strategists say.

  • Timothy Moore

US inflation rises broadly, further denting rate cut prospects

Higher prices for car insurance, airfares and a record monthly increase in the cost of prescription drugs paced the rise in core prices.

  • Augusta Saraiva

Yesterday

In his testimony, Mr Powell said that inflation expectations “appear to remain well-anchored”.

Powell tells Congress Fed still in no rush to lower rates

In his prepared remarks, the Federal Reserve chairman said the jobs markets was “broadly in balance” and inflation expectations appear “well-anchored”.

  • Amara Omeokwe

This Month

Richard Quin at Bentham likes investing in state government bonds because of their juicy returns.

There’s a reason why investors are flocking to fund Australian states

State governments grappling with credit downgrades have no choice but to pay bond investors more money to fund their ambitious election promises.

  • Updated
  • Jonathan Shapiro and Cecile Lefort
Advertisement
Trump’s policy shocks need to be carefully thought through.

Investors should beware Trumping at shadows over tariffs

Be careful of buying or selling the rumour around the president’s policies before seeing the facts. Beware fake news.

  • James Thomson
Elon Musk has become one of the most powerful figures in the new administration.

Musk’s DOGE madness could actually move markets. Here’s how

Elon Musk’s controversial Department of Government Efficiency is creating plenty of noise. Some in markets are starting to ask: what if it actually works?

  • James Thomson
Donald Trump’s policies are expected to stoke inflation, but the market should be worried about liquidity instead.

Ignore what market says on rates and buy these assets instead

Traders are still pricing in less than half a percentage point of US interest rate cuts for 2025, but that assumption is flawed.

  • Vimal Gor
The New York Stock Exchange.

US equities fall as hopes for lower rates fade again

Moderating job growth, rising inflation expectations and the prospect of reciprocal tariffs knocked the wind out of Wall Street.

  • Timothy Moore
Banks will restrict their funding to prime commercial property in the coming years.

Investors storm bond sale ahead of possible RBA rate cut

More than 100 big investors piled into the new $15 billion 2036 Treasury bonds which received more than $84 billion in bids.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort
Jo Masters at Barrenjoey says Trump tariffs are heightening uncertainty.

These five economists make a bold prediction on next rate cut

Analysts at Barrenjoey, Deloitte, KPMG, Judo Bank and Oxford Economics are tipping that the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold on February 18.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort
PIMCO’s Sam Watkins.

How this $3trn bond giant plans to win over wealthy families, doctors

The looming bank hybrid ban in Australia is too big for even the biggest asset managers to ignore.

  • Anthony Macdonald
The ACT, along with NSW and Tasmania, has an AA+ credit ratings but all three are on a negative outlook.

S&P threatens to downgrade states as it runs out of patience

“This is your last warning,” is the main message from the ratings agency to big-spending state governments, says a Westpac interest rate strategist.

  • Michael Read and Jonathan Shapiro
Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC.

Meet the most accurate economic forecaster of 2024

The Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate, according to Paul Bloxham, but don’t count on a big drop in borrowing costs as this cycle will be a short one.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort
Donald Trump.

Market panic may be the best protection against Trump’s tariff war

Investors were sure the “Art of the Deal” schtick would mean import duties would be avoided. Now they face a world of “uncontrollable chaos”.

  • James Thomson
Advertisement
The SEC and Department of Justice are investigating Western Asset’s derivatives trades for wealthy customers.

Western Asset’s Global Bond fund ‘under review’ as Brown exits

Street Talk understands Global Bond portfolio manager Gordon Brown has announced his retirement from the embattled fixed income manager.

  • Sarah Thompson, Kanika Sood and Emma Rapaport
The outlook for US equities is becoming less clear.

US exceptionalism is peaking: expert

The “magnificent seven” are poised to become the “lagnificent seven” as the tailwinds that have propelled American equities fade, Michael Hartnett argues.

  • Updated
  • Timothy Moore

January

The direction of superannuation fund flows into the ASX may be the most important factor for investors to watch.

Seven questions as the ASX resets its record high

Investors seem prepared to ignore the risks. But with uncertainty high and earnings season on the doorstep, it’s a good moment for reflection. 

  • James Thomson
XXXXXXXXXXX

What interest rate cuts will mean for your money

February is firming as the month that the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate, which will have flow-on effects for shares, property and term deposits.

  • Michelle Bowes
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, said Europe’s economy will remain frail in the near term, with risks to the outlook still tilted to the downside.

ECB cuts rates for fifth time as eurozone economy flat lines

Investors maintained bets for further easing, pricing an additional 70 basis points of cuts during the rest of 2025, which would lower rates to near 2 per cent.

  • Alexander Weber, Mark Schroers and Jana Randow

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/topic/bond-market-5v3