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Bonds

Yesterday

The price of oil fell on Monday night, but the potential for an energy shock isn’t over.

Markets say Israel-Iran is done. This could be the wildcard

Donald Trump’s call for Tehranians to evacuate backs investors’ view that their nation’s defeat looks almost certain. But the danger hasn’t completely passed.

This Month

Viktor Shvets says investors are seeing what an America First world looks like.

Viktor Shvets’ big lesson for investors from the Israel-Iran conflict

The battle between the two Middle East nations shows we live in a world of rising volatility and risk. Shareholders keep ignoring both.

Everyone’s back talking about oil - production, price and what it means for the global economy.

Why oil price is not what this $2trn manager is watching

An hour with a big fixed income manager is a discussion of the big issues. Expect volatility, he says – a bit of a tired line, although not an untrue one.

Oaktree’s Howard Marks says valuations are “lofty but not nutty”.

Markets are ‘lofty but not nutty’, says Oaktree’s Marks

Howard Marks says while Wall Street’s rebound is “troubling”, valuations do not suggest a bubble. Still, he’s telling clients to load up in fixed income.

Donald Trump might find himself in the middle of two bubbles: AI and private credit.

This Wall Street billionaire is worried about 2 bubbles

As the US market’s rally seemingly runs out of steam, one of its most prominent voices, Jeffrey Gundlach, is concerned about surges reminiscent of the past.

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Rajiv Jain, chairman and chief investment officer of GQG Partners.

GQG’s Jain warns US stocks have hit an ‘inflection point’

Stockpicker Rajiv Jain told the Morgan Stanley Conference that Wall Street’s valuations are too high in an environment where earnings are hard to predict.

As chaos reigns in the US, Porcelli warns of creaking labour market

Tom Porcelli built up a loyal following as RBC’s chief economist. He’s returned to Australia with a $US1.4 trillion manager and a bleak outlook for America.

President Donald Trump’s efforts to reign in public spending has failed to convince investors.

How America’s debt ‘ticking time bomb’ could curb the RBA

Investors are demanding higher returns for government debt globally, at levels not see since the GFC. Strategists warn this could result in less aggressive rate cuts in Australia.

The ASX’s private credit funds are lending money – to themselves

The so-called manager loans include financing at a cheaper rate than other customers, with restrictions on its use being loosened over the years.

The protests in Los Angeles escalated over the weekend as the National Guard was called in.

How LA’s riots worsen ‘the biggest risk’ facing Australian super funds

Donald Trump’s immigration policy could create a shock to the US economy that would heap more pressure on the weakening US dollar. Aussies are uniquely exposed.

Wall Street views on how much Fed easing is likely to occur this year range from none to as much as 100 basis points. The most common forecast is for just one cut, in either September or December.

Traders reel in bets on US interest rate cuts, bonds sold off

Yields lifted across maturities by as much as 10 basis points, led by shorter-dated tenors more sensitive to US Federal Reserve monetary policy changes.

The CBO, in a separate estimate on Wednesday, said tariff hikes implemented by May 13 could reduce federal deficits by $US2.8 trillion over the next decade, after accounting for the economic impacts.

Republican tax bill adds $3.7 trillion to US deficits, watchdog says

The CBO’s calculation reflects a $US3.67 trillion decrease in expected revenues and a $US1.25 trillion decline in spending over the decade through 2034.

The xAI funding plans came days after Musk stepped back from his work with the Trump administration.

Musk taps investors for $7.7b for AI startup after leaving Trump

The billionaire’s xAI is launching the share sale, as the world’s richest man returns to his business empire and the race to develop artificial intelligence.

Your past may be responsible for missed investment opportunities.

6 ways to gain from your investment biases

Deep-seated biases can lead even the savviest investors astray. Here are some to tackle.

JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon says bond markets will crack at some stage, under the weight of too much US government spending.

Dimon calls a crack in bonds. But does an even bigger bubble loom?

A flip to lower tariffs, taxes and interest rates could make investors shift back into stocks related to the artificial intelligence boom.

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May

Dimon echoed comments he made last month, when he said he expects a “kerfuffle” in the Treasury market that prompts a Fed intervention.

Jamie Dimon says crack in the US bond market is ‘going to happen’

“I just don’t know if it’s going to be a crisis in six months or six years,” the JPMorgan Chase chief executive officer said.

$A emerges as unlikely Trump turmoil safe haven

It isn’t just sentiment, with the Australian dollar’s share of global central bank currency reserves more than doubling, mostly over recent months.

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan and Treasurer Jaclyn Symes earlier this month. Despite steep deficits, investors shrugged at last week’s Victorian budget.

Investors shrug at Victorian debt bomb in search for new safe haven

For all the talk about the age of market vigilantism and deteriorating public balance sheets, there’s no lack of interest in Australian state government bonds.

Shoppers at a supermarket.

Inflation data no barrier to another RBA rate cut

Headline inflation remained within the central bank’s target band in April, bolstering market confidence for further easing

Donald Trump has the bulls running once again.

This ‘most hated’ rally just keeps running. But bulls ignore two risks

The bullish are back in control, and are largely ignoring Donald Trump. But they’ve pushed Wall Street to levels that leave zero room for error.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/topic/bond-market-5v3