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Christopher Joye

Plenty of reasons why rates will remain higher in the long run

Politicians around the world have a habit of running big budget deficits to spend money on voters today by borrowing from voters in the future.

The jump in the jobless rate from 4.1 per cent to 4.3 per cent has key central bank watchers asserting that we are destined to get a third rate cut in August, barring some catastrophic second-quarter inflation data.

“It will likely take a truly disastrous inflation figure in the coming weeks to scuttle an August rate cut,” alleges media commentator James Glynn. Recall that it was Glynn who was the only pundit on the planet to predict the Reserve Bank of Australia’s temporary pause in July, which shocked traders who had priced in a near-certain probability of a rate reduction.

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Christopher Joye is a portfolio manager with Coolabah Capital, which invests in securities, including those discussed in his column. Connect with Christopher on Twitter.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/plenty-of-reasons-why-rates-will-remain-higher-in-the-long-run-20250718-p5mfyy