Yesterday
Musk-Trump fissure raises prospect of higher rates
The breakdown in relations between the US president and the world’s richest person could push long-term interest rates a lot higher.
May
A complacent Wonder Down Under is heading for a productivity fail
Crazy levels of government spending, and Victoria’s status as one of the most indebted states in the world, helps explain Australia’s miserable performance.
Huge public spending secures soft landing
Interest rates would be a lot lower in Australia were it not for the government spend-a-thon.
All the ingredients are in place for an enduring housing recovery
As central banks ease monetary policy, default interest rates should fall. In Australia, markets are pricing in at least three RBA rate cuts this year.
Trump’s challenge: building a bridge to the future
The US president has shifted into uber-spruiker mode in a quest to build a bridge between his short-term pain trade and a more prosperous vision of the future.
Australia is becoming Asia’s Greece
The great entrepreneurial and innovation drive of the postwar period is dead and buried.
April
Trump’s shock-and-awe approach to China is working
The US president knew he needed to drop neutron bombs to shock his counterparties out of their stubborn stupor.
Trump isn’t kowtowing to the market – he’s doubling down
Investors need to be bold during these dark days. You want to be buying when the crowd is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Trump’s trade chaos may push down inflation and rates
The US tariff regime will be hard for markets but creates opportunities elsewhere.
March
Housing market recovery gathers steam
With a helpful kick from the Reserve Bank’s first interest rate cut, Sydney and Melbourne house prices are climbing once again after modest recent declines.
Trump 2.0 is different – and it could go two ways
Donald Trump’s second coming involves a far more staunch and legacy-focused US president who will deliver more radical change than markets expect.
Prepare for much more downside risk for listed equities
The correction may only be getting started. Equity markets could easily fall another 20-40 per cent.
It’s a very scary world. Here’s how Australia can make itself safe
As Department of Home Affairs former secretary Michael Pezzullo says, the country is not remotely ready to defend itself. We need to have nuclear weapons.
February
Government spending highest since World War II
Australia’s federal budget has lurched into deficit as public spending surges to its highest level in 80 years.
Why the RBA rate cut is a very big deal
It might seem like a small rate cut, but this week’s Reserve Bank decision is likely to transform the consumer zeitgeist.
Trump isn’t bluffing on tariffs. He desperately needs cash
Don’t believe the “hopeium” that Donald Trump is bluffing on tariffs.
The secrets behind fund incubators’ success
The rise and rise of Pinnacle and its offshoot Scarcity Partners highlights the power of the diversified fund incubator business model.
January
Housing market will welcome RBA rate cuts
The beleaguered residential property market will be one key transmission mechanism through which the RBA’s interest rate relief will affect the wider economy.
‘The numbers are breathtaking’: Qld’s interest bill worth 11 new hospitals
The states’ debt-servicing costs will probably continue to skyrocket as investors demand compensation for their fiscally reckless ways.
Bond markets punish imprudent politicians as debt spiral looms
While equity markets have been ebullient, we are having the worst bankruptcy cycle in most developed nations since the global financial crisis.