This Month
Prepare for much more downside risk for listed equities
The correction may only be getting started. Equity markets could easily fall another 20-40 per cent.
It’s a very scary world. Here’s how Australia can make itself safe
As Department of Home Affairs former secretary Michael Pezzullo says, the country is not remotely ready to defend itself. We need to have nuclear weapons.
February
Government spending highest since World War II
Australia’s federal budget has lurched into deficit as public spending surges to its highest level in 80 years.
Why the RBA rate cut is a very big deal
It might seem like a small rate cut, but this week’s Reserve Bank decision is likely to transform the consumer zeitgeist.
Trump isn’t bluffing on tariffs. He desperately needs cash
Don’t believe the “hopeium” that Donald Trump is bluffing on tariffs.
The secrets behind fund incubators’ success
The rise and rise of Pinnacle and its offshoot Scarcity Partners highlights the power of the diversified fund incubator business model.
January
Housing market will welcome RBA rate cuts
The beleaguered residential property market will be one key transmission mechanism through which the RBA’s interest rate relief will affect the wider economy.
‘The numbers are breathtaking’: Qld’s interest bill worth 11 new hospitals
The states’ debt-servicing costs will probably continue to skyrocket as investors demand compensation for their fiscally reckless ways.
Bond markets punish imprudent politicians as debt spiral looms
While equity markets have been ebullient, we are having the worst bankruptcy cycle in most developed nations since the global financial crisis.
The key questions for investing in 2025
The last time the US equity market realised two back-to-back years of returns in excess of 20 per cent, it promptly plunged 19 per cent.
December 2024
The greenback was the trade of the year, the next one is up to Musk
Getting diversification across currencies was one of the best trades of 2024. But the year ahead is complicated by the advent of the new Trump regime in 2025.
The Fed’s humiliating reversal is toxic for stocks
The US central bank’s belated acknowledgement of re-accelerating inflation and the risks flowing from Donald Trump’s policies could trigger a sustained market downturn.
Why the RBA will follow the Fed’s election playbook
The Reserve Bank of Australia appears set to ease interest rates in a move that will support its political masters heading into a problematic poll.
Public sector to blame for Australia’s poor productivity
Australia’s economic story has become dominated by public rather than private activity as politicians spend crazy amounts of money to buy votes.
November 2024
Could the RBA cut interest rates in February?
The latest inflation readings imply that there is a possibility the Reserve Bank of Australia could start easing early in the new year.
Bank stocks look 58 per cent overvalued
Aussie bank stocks are the dearest in the developed world, according to Barrenjoey. It’s no wonder retail investors are heading for the exits.
Why interest rates could be higher under Trump
New research finds that Trump’s policies could drive rates much higher than markets are assuming.
Markets celebrate a Trumpian revolution
While investors are rejoicing at the prospect of a business-friendly Trump administration, it will also amplify long-term inflation and asset pricing risks.
Heed the alarming writing on the wall left by bond bandits
Equity investors are slowly waking up to the risk of Donald Trump returning to the White House.
October 2024
US election will drive long-term Aussie interest rates
Markets should keep a close eye on where yields land after Donald Trump or Kamla Harris claim victory on November 5.