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Christopher Joye

This Month

APRA chairman John Lonsdale. The prudential regulator’s plan to phase out bank hybrid securities and replace them with capital it regards as cheaper and more reliable.

Why is APRA trying to blow up the hybrid market?

The prudential watchdog wants to boost bank leverage and raise the risks depositors and taxpayers face in the name of ameliorating its regulatory complexity.

Is private credit bringing trouble?

Is private credit becoming the next subprime crisis?

Investors need to consider whether they are getting sufficient additional returns for the risks that debts issued by unregulated non-bank lenders present.

August

Most soft landings have ended up triggered even higher interest rates.

Beware the threat of reaccelerating inflation in 2025

It is awfully hard beating inflation out of the system without a real recession. Most soft landings have ended up triggering even higher interest rates.

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock.

Lower inflation could pressure RBA to cut rates

Very low inflation readings in the coming months will change the interest rate debate.

  • Updated
Andrew Hauser ought to recognise that we benefit from an exceptionally open and vibrant media debate.

Arrogant RBA boss should stop trying to muffle opponents

The haughty deputy governor of the Reserve Bank should focus on ensuring the central bank does not once again become a false prophet.

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The RBA now alleges it will hit 2.9 per cent by December 2025.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s credibility is shot

The central bank’s hawkish pivot has no credibility given it is not willing to do the bare minimum and raise interest rates in line with global peers.

July

Australian investors face even higher rates.

If the RBA was doing its job, it would immediately lift rates

A hot inflation figure on Wednesday would show we are in the grip of a structurally persistent crisis which has been underestimated in three of the last four quarters.

Zombie companies, low-yielding commercial property and marginal residential borrowers will become even more vulnerable.

Second subprime crisis more likely with Trump in the White House

Investors need to start preparing for how a re-elected Donald Trump will shape inflation, interest rates, and hence asset prices.

A politically sensitive Fed has been desperate to cut its policy rate all year.

This rule suggests the US is on the brink of recession

The gradual increase in US unemployment has almost satisfied the “Sahm rule”, which has correctly identified the inception of all US recessions.

The king of 2024 was, however, much-maligned crypto, with bitcoin surging to close-out the financial year at circa US$60,000, representing a 105 per cent increase in its value.

Best investments of the past financial year, ranked by risk

Among the higher risk asset classes, global shares did very well, and gold even better. But the king of 2024 was bitcoin.

June

Stubbornly high inflation will force Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock’s hand on interest rates.

RBA forced into a humiliating rate-raising cycle

In a huge embarrassment for the central bank, its next move in interest rates should be higher, not lower.

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Protesters hold banners during a demonstration against the far-right and racism in central Paris, France, on Saturday, June 15.

Attention investors: the risk of a sovereign debt crisis is back

The financial market volatility induced by the political dramas in France show the world is moving into a new risk regime.

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Profligate public spending amplifies inflation crisis

Financial markets might spit the dummy and unilaterally impose a much higher long-term cost of capital on everyone.

We repeatedly warned that Australia would experience the worst default cycle since the 1991 recession.

The zombie corporate apocalypse has arrived

Nothing is OK about the rate of delinquencies in Australia and overseas. And it is only going to get much worse as rates stay high.

May

We expect the next official June quarter trimmed mean inflation data to print at least 0.9 per cent to 1 per cent.

Opportunities aplenty for yield buyers

There is a rich array of opportunities available for investors searching for relatively safe and liquid yields.

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Adrian Orr, governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Kiwis outplay Aussies in monetary policy game

The New Zealand central bank has given its Australian equivalent a dancing lesson in political independence.

The RBA may be actively choosing to tolerate hotter inflation to preserve employment.

RBA caught in political spin

Political considerations may explain the central bank’s unusual cheerleading of the federal budget.

RBA governor Michele Bullock revealed “the board did discuss the option of raising interest rates”.

RBA’s credibility at risk as central banks confront interference

The contradictions in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s communications reveal policy conflicts that could erode its already embattled credibility.

Fed Chair Jay Powell clearly wants to do everything he can to avoid adversely impacting President Joe Biden’s electoral prospects.

Central bank independence is dead

Politicians are compromising central banks’ commitments to price stability targets, and the ensuing sticky inflation will require a much tougher cost of capital to extinguish.

April

Dovish interest rate expectations have been eviscerated.

You heard right – the RBA could raise rates again

The Reserve Bank of Australia will likely be forced to warn that it could raise rates again.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/by/christopher-joye-j7gce