This Month
- Opinion
- Big four
Why is APRA trying to blow up the hybrid market?
The prudential watchdog wants to boost bank leverage and raise the risks depositors and taxpayers face in the name of ameliorating its regulatory complexity.
- Opinion
- Investing
Is private credit becoming the next subprime crisis?
Investors need to consider whether they are getting sufficient additional returns for the risks that debts issued by unregulated non-bank lenders present.
August
- Opinion
- Inflation
Beware the threat of reaccelerating inflation in 2025
It is awfully hard beating inflation out of the system without a real recession. Most soft landings have ended up triggering even higher interest rates.
- Opinion
- Inflation
Lower inflation could pressure RBA to cut rates
Very low inflation readings in the coming months will change the interest rate debate.
- Updated
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Arrogant RBA boss should stop trying to muffle opponents
The haughty deputy governor of the Reserve Bank should focus on ensuring the central bank does not once again become a false prophet.
- Opinion
- US recession
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s credibility is shot
The central bank’s hawkish pivot has no credibility given it is not willing to do the bare minimum and raise interest rates in line with global peers.
July
- Opinion
- Interest rates
If the RBA was doing its job, it would immediately lift rates
A hot inflation figure on Wednesday would show we are in the grip of a structurally persistent crisis which has been underestimated in three of the last four quarters.
- Opinion
- US election
Second subprime crisis more likely with Trump in the White House
Investors need to start preparing for how a re-elected Donald Trump will shape inflation, interest rates, and hence asset prices.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
This rule suggests the US is on the brink of recession
The gradual increase in US unemployment has almost satisfied the “Sahm rule”, which has correctly identified the inception of all US recessions.
- Opinion
- Investing
Best investments of the past financial year, ranked by risk
Among the higher risk asset classes, global shares did very well, and gold even better. But the king of 2024 was bitcoin.
June
- Opinion
- Inflation
RBA forced into a humiliating rate-raising cycle
In a huge embarrassment for the central bank, its next move in interest rates should be higher, not lower.
- Updated
- Opinion
- Bonds
Attention investors: the risk of a sovereign debt crisis is back
The financial market volatility induced by the political dramas in France show the world is moving into a new risk regime.
- Updated
- Opinion
- Inflation
Profligate public spending amplifies inflation crisis
Financial markets might spit the dummy and unilaterally impose a much higher long-term cost of capital on everyone.
- Opinion
- Insolvency
The zombie corporate apocalypse has arrived
Nothing is OK about the rate of delinquencies in Australia and overseas. And it is only going to get much worse as rates stay high.
May
- Opinion
- Bonds
Opportunities aplenty for yield buyers
There is a rich array of opportunities available for investors searching for relatively safe and liquid yields.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Kiwis outplay Aussies in monetary policy game
The New Zealand central bank has given its Australian equivalent a dancing lesson in political independence.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
RBA caught in political spin
Political considerations may explain the central bank’s unusual cheerleading of the federal budget.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
RBA’s credibility at risk as central banks confront interference
The contradictions in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s communications reveal policy conflicts that could erode its already embattled credibility.
- Opinion
- Inflation
Central bank independence is dead
Politicians are compromising central banks’ commitments to price stability targets, and the ensuing sticky inflation will require a much tougher cost of capital to extinguish.
April
- Opinion
- Inflation
You heard right – the RBA could raise rates again
The Reserve Bank of Australia will likely be forced to warn that it could raise rates again.