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Christopher Joye

This Month

Fund managers are looking long-term as they contemplate another tricky year.

The secrets behind fund incubators’ success

The rise and rise of Pinnacle and its offshoot Scarcity Partners highlights the power of the diversified fund incubator business model.

January

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock.

Housing market will welcome RBA rate cuts

The beleaguered residential property market will be one key transmission mechanism through which the RBA’s interest rate relief will affect the wider economy.

Queensland’s debt will skyrocket to $218 billion by 2028, based on the mid-year budget published on Thursday.

‘The numbers are breathtaking’: Qld’s interest bill worth 11 new hospitals

The states’ debt-servicing costs will probably continue to skyrocket as investors demand compensation for their fiscally reckless ways.

The risk/reward trade-off on equity markets is very poor right now, with the equity risk premiums near historic lows.

Bond markets punish imprudent politicians as debt spiral looms

While equity markets have been ebullient, we are having the worst bankruptcy cycle in most developed nations since the global financial crisis.

The Future Fund has been strong on the idea that it is hard for active managers to beat the market.

The key questions for investing in 2025

The last time the US equity market realised two back-to-back years of returns in excess of 20 per cent, it promptly plunged 19 per cent.

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December 2024

Elon Musk has won extraordinary power in the new Trump administration.

The greenback was the trade of the year, the next one is up to Musk

Getting diversification across currencies was one of the best trades of 2024. But the year ahead is complicated by the advent of the new Trump regime in 2025.

The Fed’s humiliating reversal is toxic for stocks

The US central bank’s belated acknowledgement of re-accelerating inflation and the risks flowing from Donald Trump’s policies could trigger a sustained market downturn.

  • Updated
Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock will probably cut rates before the federal election.

Why the RBA will follow the Fed’s election playbook

The Reserve Bank of Australia appears set to ease interest rates in a move that will support its political masters heading into a problematic poll.

Public sector to blame for Australia’s poor productivity

Australia’s economic story has become dominated by public rather than private activity as politicians spend crazy amounts of money to buy votes.

November 2024

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock is stubborn in a good way.

Could the RBA cut interest rates in February?

The latest inflation readings imply that there is a possibility the Reserve Bank of Australia could start easing early in the new year.

Shareholders will back growth stories, but only if they trust management can deliver them.

Bank stocks look 58 per cent overvalued

Aussie bank stocks are the dearest in the developed world, according to Barrenjoey. It’s no wonder retail investors are heading for the exits.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has delivered another rate cut that will push shares higher.

Why interest rates could be higher under Trump

New research finds that Trump’s policies could drive rates much higher than markets are assuming.

Fed chairman Jerome Powell will face Donald Trump’s inflationary policies just as he starts cutting rates.

Markets celebrate a Trumpian revolution

While investors are rejoicing at the prospect of a business-friendly Trump administration, it will also amplify long-term inflation and asset pricing risks.

A comprehensive Trump victory, which would presage sweeping policy changes, could furnish interesting trading opportunities.

Heed the alarming writing on the wall left by bond bandits

Equity investors are slowly waking up to the risk of Donald Trump returning to the White House.

October 2024

Trump v Harris.

US election will drive long-term Aussie interest rates

Markets should keep a close eye on where yields land after Donald Trump or Kamla Harris claim victory on November 5.

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RBA governor Michele Bullock.

Hopes for a soft landing remain heroic

Government spending crowding out private sector activity means that inflation and interest rates are likely to remain high.

RBA blowing financial stability bubble

Household leverage has declined in the US and Europe, but the lax approach of Australia’s central bank has fuelled a record increase in household debt.

Hybrids are inherently safer and less complex than equities from a pure valuation perspective.

Trading regulatory risk in the $40b hybrid sector

Investors are puzzling over what to do with their hybrids following APRA’s proposal to phase out the sector.

September 2024

Jerome Powell has delivered the super-sized rate cut markets were hoping for.

Rate cuts herald risky new regime

Financial markets have entered a dangerous new economic environment defined by unusually elevated uncertainty after the US Federal Reserve’s pivot this week.

APRA chairman John Lonsdale. The prudential regulator’s plan to phase out bank hybrid securities and replace them with capital it regards as cheaper and more reliable.

Why is APRA trying to blow up the hybrid market?

The prudential watchdog wants to boost bank leverage and raise the risks depositors and taxpayers face in the name of ameliorating its regulatory complexity.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/by/christopher-joye-j7gce