NewsBite

Christopher Joye

Yesterday

Donald Trump is even hitting Elon Musk’s global Tesla factories.

Musk-Trump fissure raises prospect of higher rates

The breakdown in relations between the US president and the world’s richest person could push long-term interest rates a lot higher.

May

The Miami skyline. Florida has become a magnet for capital and people because of economic performance.

A complacent Wonder Down Under is heading for a productivity fail

Crazy levels of government spending, and Victoria’s status as one of the most indebted states in the world, helps explain Australia’s miserable performance.

The new battleground is how quickly the RBA cuts rates this year.

Huge public spending secures soft landing

Interest rates would be a lot lower in Australia were it not for the government spend-a-thon.

Markets are pricing in slightly more than three RBA rate cuts this year, which would bring the total in 2025 to four.

All the ingredients are in place for an enduring housing recovery

As central banks ease monetary policy, default interest rates should fall. In Australia, markets are pricing in at least three RBA rate cuts this year.

Donald Trump and Jerome Powell are casting big shadows over markets.

Trump’s challenge: building a bridge to the future

The US president has shifted into uber-spruiker mode in a quest to build a bridge between his short-term pain trade and a more prosperous vision of the future.

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Trump loves chaos. Markets very clearly do not.

Australia is becoming Asia’s Greece

The great entrepreneurial and innovation drive of the postwar period is dead and buried.

April

The time has come to mount a counterattack. But the counterargument cannot be technocratic

Trump’s shock-and-awe approach to China is working

The US president knew he needed to drop neutron bombs to shock his counterparties out of their stubborn stupor.

In his relentless Make America Great Again drive, Donald Trump has little care for the economic pain inflicted on others and even relishes it when the targets are American allies.

Trump isn’t kowtowing to the market – he’s doubling down

Investors need to be bold during these dark days. You want to be buying when the crowd is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Donald Trump’s trade war will have all sorts of consequences for Australia – and for local mortgagees.

Trump’s trade chaos may push down inflation and rates

The US tariff regime will be hard for markets but creates opportunities elsewhere.

March

The housing affordability crisis has led to immigration restrictions, whacking IDP Education.

Housing market recovery gathers steam

With a helpful kick from the Reserve Bank’s first interest rate cut, Sydney and Melbourne house prices are climbing once again after modest recent declines.

Trump 2.0 is different – and it could go two ways

Donald Trump’s second coming involves a far more staunch and legacy-focused US president who will deliver more radical change than markets expect.

Big bears like John Hussman seem to regularly call for a big crash.

Prepare for much more downside risk for listed equities

The correction may only be getting started. Equity markets could easily fall another 20-40 per cent.

It’s a very scary world. Here’s how Australia can make itself safe

As Department of Home Affairs former secretary Michael Pezzullo says, the country is not remotely ready to defend itself. We need to have nuclear weapons.

February

Government spending highest since World War II

Australia’s federal budget has lurched into deficit as public spending surges to its highest level in 80 years.

Bank hybrids have typically paid investors 3 per cent to 4 per cent above bank bills.

Why the RBA rate cut is a very big deal

It might seem like a small rate cut, but this week’s Reserve Bank decision is likely to transform the consumer zeitgeist.

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Trump is likely to be dead serious about tariffs.

Trump isn’t bluffing on tariffs. He desperately needs cash

Don’t believe the “hopeium” that Donald Trump is bluffing on tariffs.

Fund managers are looking long-term as they contemplate another tricky year.

The secrets behind fund incubators’ success

The rise and rise of Pinnacle and its offshoot Scarcity Partners highlights the power of the diversified fund incubator business model.

January

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock.

Housing market will welcome RBA rate cuts

The beleaguered residential property market will be one key transmission mechanism through which the RBA’s interest rate relief will affect the wider economy.

Queensland’s debt will skyrocket to $218 billion by 2028, based on the mid-year budget published on Thursday.

‘The numbers are breathtaking’: Qld’s interest bill worth 11 new hospitals

The states’ debt-servicing costs will probably continue to skyrocket as investors demand compensation for their fiscally reckless ways.

The risk/reward trade-off on equity markets is very poor right now, with the equity risk premiums near historic lows.

Bond markets punish imprudent politicians as debt spiral looms

While equity markets have been ebullient, we are having the worst bankruptcy cycle in most developed nations since the global financial crisis.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/by/christopher-joye-j7gce