This Month
RBA forecast misses explain its data dependence
The Reserve Bank underperforms next to major global central banks on foretelling, which probably shows why it is so focused on seeing hard economic figures.
Plenty of reasons why rates will remain higher in the long run
Politicians around the world have a habit of running big budget deficits to spend money on voters today by borrowing money from voters in the future.
How did investors get the RBA’s interest rate call so wrong?
The central bank has of late blown-up so many of its media voice pieces – wording them up only to change its mind – that traders have stopped paying attention.
Why we may be on the cusp of a more stable global order
There is speculation afoot China’s hardline President Xi Jinping may be replaced by a more pragmatic and Western-friendly successor.
June
Trump’s ‘new normal’ is good news for Middle East and house prices
The president’s pre-emptive strike on Iran helps bring greater stability to the region while potentially ushering in a new regime for financial markets.
America attacking Iran could trigger Taiwan conflict
US involvement in wars in Europe and the Middle East could open the door for China to have a crack at Taiwan.
The Iran-Israel conflict will be long and hit fragile confidence
The heightened global uncertainty wrought by the outbreak of war between the two countries only reinforces the likelihood the RBA will continue to cut rates.
Musk-Trump fissure raises prospect of higher rates
The breakdown in relations between the US president and the world’s richest person could push long-term interest rates a lot higher.
May
A complacent Wonder Down Under is heading for a productivity fail
Crazy levels of government spending, and Victoria’s status as one of the most indebted states in the world, helps explain Australia’s miserable performance.
Huge public spending secures soft landing
Interest rates would be a lot lower in Australia were it not for the government spend-a-thon.
All the ingredients are in place for an enduring housing recovery
As central banks ease monetary policy, default interest rates should fall. In Australia, markets are pricing in at least three RBA rate cuts this year.
Trump’s challenge: building a bridge to the future
The US president has shifted into uber-spruiker mode in a quest to build a bridge between his short-term pain trade and a more prosperous vision of the future.
Australia is becoming Asia’s Greece
The great entrepreneurial and innovation drive of the postwar period is dead and buried.
April
Trump’s shock-and-awe approach to China is working
The US president knew he needed to drop neutron bombs to shock his counterparties out of their stubborn stupor.
Trump isn’t kowtowing to the market – he’s doubling down
Investors need to be bold during these dark days. You want to be buying when the crowd is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Trump’s trade chaos may push down inflation and rates
The US tariff regime will be hard for markets but creates opportunities elsewhere.
March
Housing market recovery gathers steam
With a helpful kick from the Reserve Bank’s first interest rate cut, Sydney and Melbourne house prices are climbing once again after modest recent declines.
Trump 2.0 is different – and it could go two ways
Donald Trump’s second coming involves a far more staunch and legacy-focused US president who will deliver more radical change than markets expect.
Prepare for much more downside risk for listed equities
The correction may only be getting started. Equity markets could easily fall another 20-40 per cent.
It’s a very scary world. Here’s how Australia can make itself safe
As Department of Home Affairs former secretary Michael Pezzullo says, the country is not remotely ready to defend itself. We need to have nuclear weapons.