This Month
- Opinion
- Bonds
Bond markets punish imprudent politicians as debt spiral looms
While equity markets have been ebullient, we are having the worst bankruptcy cycle in most developed nations since the global financial crisis.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
The key questions for investing in 2025
The last time the US equity market realised two back-to-back years of returns in excess of 20 per cent, it promptly plunged 19 per cent.
December 2024
- Opinion
- Currencies
The greenback was the trade of the year, the next one is up to Musk
Getting diversification across currencies was one of the best trades of 2024. But the year ahead is complicated by the advent of the new Trump regime in 2025.
- Opinion
- Inflation
The Fed’s humiliating reversal is toxic for stocks
The US central bank’s belated acknowledgement of re-accelerating inflation and the risks flowing from Donald Trump’s policies could trigger a sustained market downturn.
- Updated
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Why the RBA will follow the Fed’s election playbook
The Reserve Bank of Australia appears set to ease interest rates in a move that will support its political masters heading into a problematic poll.
- Opinion
- Productivity
Public sector to blame for Australia’s poor productivity
Australia’s economic story has become dominated by public rather than private activity as politicians spend crazy amounts of money to buy votes.
November 2024
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Could the RBA cut interest rates in February?
The latest inflation readings imply that there is a possibility the Reserve Bank of Australia could start easing early in the new year.
- Opinion
- Big four
Bank stocks look 58 per cent overvalued
Aussie bank stocks are the dearest in the developed world, according to Barrenjoey. It’s no wonder retail investors are heading for the exits.
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Why interest rates could be higher under Trump
New research finds that Trump’s policies could drive rates much higher than markets are assuming.
- Opinion
- US Votes 2024
Markets celebrate a Trumpian revolution
While investors are rejoicing at the prospect of a business-friendly Trump administration, it will also amplify long-term inflation and asset pricing risks.
- Opinion
- Inflation
Heed the alarming writing on the wall left by bond bandits
Equity investors are slowly waking up to the risk of Donald Trump returning to the White House.
October 2024
- Opinion
- Bonds
US election will drive long-term Aussie interest rates
Markets should keep a close eye on where yields land after Donald Trump or Kamla Harris claim victory on November 5.
- Opinion
- Bonds
Hopes for a soft landing remain heroic
Government spending crowding out private sector activity means that inflation and interest rates are likely to remain high.
- Opinion
- Australian economy
RBA blowing financial stability bubble
Household leverage has declined in the US and Europe, but the lax approach of Australia’s central bank has fuelled a record increase in household debt.
- Opinion
- Hybrids
Trading regulatory risk in the $40b hybrid sector
Investors are puzzling over what to do with their hybrids following APRA’s proposal to phase out the sector.
September 2024
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
Rate cuts herald risky new regime
Financial markets have entered a dangerous new economic environment defined by unusually elevated uncertainty after the US Federal Reserve’s pivot this week.
- Opinion
- Big four
Why is APRA trying to blow up the hybrid market?
The prudential watchdog wants to boost bank leverage and raise the risks depositors and taxpayers face in the name of ameliorating its regulatory complexity.
- Opinion
- Investing
Is private credit becoming the next subprime crisis?
Investors need to consider whether they are getting sufficient additional returns for the risks that debts issued by unregulated non-bank lenders present.
August 2024
- Opinion
- Inflation
Beware the threat of reaccelerating inflation in 2025
It is awfully hard beating inflation out of the system without a real recession. Most soft landings have ended up triggering even higher interest rates.
- Opinion
- Inflation
Lower inflation could pressure RBA to cut rates
Very low inflation readings in the coming months will change the interest rate debate.
- Updated