Yesterday
Traders eye up to five RBA rate cuts amid market turmoil
The Aussie tumbled below US60¢, its lowest level since early in the COVID-19 pandemic, as the bond market ramped up expectations of bigger interest rate moves.
Fast and deep RBA rate relief on the way, say economists
Tariffs will force central banks to ease policy further than expected just a week ago, The Australian Financial Review’s quarterly economist survey has found.
This Month
Trump’s trade chaos may push down inflation and rates
The US tariff regime will be hard for markets but creates opportunities elsewhere.
Traders temper rate cut bets for May after RBA holds its nerve
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate on hold at 4.1 per cent, but remains “cautious about the outlook” amid an escalating trade war.
What bond managers expect from Trump’s tariffs
Australian bonds may be stuck in the middle of Trump’s trade war, but some fund managers expect the deteriorating growth outlook to spur a rally in bonds.
March
Want to build trust in private credit? Look to New York
Private credit is now a $205 billion industry in Australia, but it has a transparency problem. There’s one possible solution.
‘Solid case’ for rate cuts next week, says Goldman Sachs
The investment bank has told clients the market is underestimating the chances that the RBA will reduce the cash rate in April.
Global banks may outsource bond trading operations
Big banks are talking about renting trading capabilities from firms such as Citadel Securities, but the savings might not be worth it.
Traders temper bets on RBA rate cuts after pre-election budget
Bond investors are concerned about Australia’s spending plans as the government’s financing arm unveiled the biggest annual funding program outside the pandemic.
Super funds pile into disaster bonds as cyclones, floods rage
Catastrophe bond portfolios are paying juicy returns to protect against disaster risks, prompting big super funds and wealthy Australians to invest.
Private versus public markets? The debate is just heating up
The number of ASX-listed companies is falling due to fewer IPOs and more de-listings. The ratio is pretty stark, but ASIC thinks it’s too early to call this a structural trend. I think it’s perplexing not to.
Investors cheer as traders dial up Fed rate cut bets
Equities rallied around the world as bond markets priced in the possibility of two rate cuts from US Federal Reserve this year and in Australia.
Super funds hire economists as they invest more money offshore
The country’s largest superannuation funds have been ramping up their in-house macro expertise as growing assets force them to look beyond Australia.
Why a weak US dollar may be part of Trump’s plan
Investors and strategists are pondering whether Trump’s unorthodox ideas to revive US manufacturing will succeed.
Rio Tinto seeks as much as $14b for Arcadium Lithium buyout
A unit of the world’s second-biggest miner is looking to sell bonds in as many as eight parts, with the longest portion a 40-year note.
Fear of a ‘Trumpcession’ is growing. Here’s why
Fears of a sharp US downturn are permeating financial markets. Even so, Perpetual and BlackRock remain optimistic about the US economy.
Why Trump’s economic gamble will force the Fed’s hand
Donald Trump’s strategy to crush demand while giving US companies a boost is driving the world’s largest economy toward the edge, but it could be all part of the plan.
It’s a very scary world. Here’s how Australia can make itself safe
As Department of Home Affairs former secretary Michael Pezzullo says, the country is not remotely ready to defend itself. We need to have nuclear weapons.
Why a battered $A is a double-edged sword for ASX stocks
CSL, Accent Group, Kogan, Atlas Arteria and Qantas are feeling the impact of a depressed Australian dollar in their fortunes.
February
Don’t believe the doomsayers – more rate cuts are on the way
The bond market is pricing in two to three rate cuts this year and history suggests it always tends to get it right.
RBA rate caution ‘rubbish’ with more cuts to come
Bond managers have dismissed the governor’s reticence on further rate cuts, with some even predicting as many as three more rate cuts this year.
Market tips two more rate cuts despite RBA caution
Bond markets are sticking with their rate cut forecasts after the central bank finally joined the global easing campaign by lowering the cash rate to 4.1 per cent.
Don’t underestimate the RBA’s willingness to shock the market
The Reserve Bank has a rich history of surprises compared with the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England, an analysis by Commonwealth Bank shows.
RBA’s radio silence is a telling sign for next week
There’s a lot of money riding on the central bank’s rate decision. While the market and most economists are all but convinced, it’s still a line ball decision.
US CPI data points to prolonged rate hold: economists
Consumer prices rose at a faster pace than expected last month, and the probability of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has fallen, economists and strategists say.