February
Don’t believe the doomsayers – more rate cuts are on the way
The bond market is pricing in two to three rate cuts this year and history suggests it always tends to get it right.
RBA rate caution ‘rubbish’ with more cuts to come
Bond managers have dismissed the governor’s reticence on further rate cuts, with some even predicting as many as three more rate cuts this year.
Market tips two more rate cuts despite RBA caution
Bond markets are sticking with their rate cut forecasts after the central bank finally joined the global easing campaign by lowering the cash rate to 4.1 per cent.
Don’t underestimate the RBA’s willingness to shock the market
The Reserve Bank has a rich history of surprises compared with the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England, an analysis by Commonwealth Bank shows.
RBA’s radio silence is a telling sign for next week
There’s a lot of money riding on the central bank’s rate decision. While the market and most economists are all but convinced, it’s still a line ball decision.
US CPI data points to prolonged rate hold: economists
Consumer prices rose at a faster pace than expected last month, and the probability of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has fallen, economists and strategists say.
There’s a reason why investors are flocking to fund Australian states
State governments grappling with credit downgrades have no choice but to pay bond investors more money to fund their ambitious election promises.
Ignore what market says on rates and buy these assets instead
Traders are still pricing in less than half a percentage point of US interest rate cuts for 2025, but that assumption is flawed.
Investors storm bond sale ahead of possible RBA rate cut
More than 100 big investors piled into the new $15 billion 2036 Treasury bonds which received more than $84 billion in bids.
These five economists make a bold prediction on next rate cut
Analysts at Barrenjoey, Deloitte, KPMG, Judo Bank and Oxford Economics are tipping that the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold on February 18.
Meet the most accurate economic forecaster of 2024
The Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate, according to Paul Bloxham, but don’t count on a big drop in borrowing costs as this cycle will be a short one.
Top forecaster Paul Bloxham says trade war changes the RBA path
HSBC’s chief economist says the RBA will only cut twice in 2025, beginning this month, and once in 2026.
January
Housing market will welcome RBA rate cuts
The beleaguered residential property market will be one key transmission mechanism through which the RBA’s interest rate relief will affect the wider economy.
US Fed cools rate cut talk as prospects of RBA easing balloon
If Michele Bullock holds the cash rate steady on February 18, it will represent the most counter-consensus decision since that of Glenn Stevens in April 2015.
Major banks close to consensus on February interest rate cut call
Traders imply an 80 per cent chance of an interest rate cut next month to 4.1 per cent though the Reserve Bank could opt to wait for more data.
‘The numbers are breathtaking’: Qld’s interest bill worth 11 new hospitals
The states’ debt-servicing costs will probably continue to skyrocket as investors demand compensation for their fiscally reckless ways.
Why these investors aren’t worried about Trump tariffs yet
Fund managers are hopeful the new US president recognises that tariffs are more effective as a threat than being acted on.
Why Donald Trump needs to mind the gaps
A dispersion of economic outcomes helped the US president return to the White House, but he faces the task of reorienting this phenomenon.
Die-hard bond traders bet the next Fed move is higher, not lower
A blowout US jobs report has prompted a small corner of the bond market to start pricing in the possibility of rate hike in the US this year.
Four reasons investors should be very nervous in 2025
Alarm bells are ringing for fund managers and economists about the mounting threat of asset bubbles, which may trigger chaos in financial markets.
Why Tim Toohey is switching to cash
Tim Toohey from Yarra Capital says fewer RBA board meetings will mean less policy agility to react to monetary turning points.
How Trump could (finally) unleash $5.8 trillion of private money
A new era dawns for investors on the promise of deregulation and tax cuts under Donald Trump. Will they get the certainty needed to put all that dry power back to work?
Bond markets stick with early rate cut after jobs blowout
While bond investors modestly tempered RBA rate cut bets after jobs data smashed expectations, they have still priced in a strong chance for a move in February.
Bond turmoil won’t derail RBA’s rate cut plan
Despite bond yields spiking around the world, analysts say the Reserve Bank is still on track to cut interest rates this year.
ASX to drop as markets fret currency slump will put off rate cut
The Australian dollar has fallen below a crucial threshold when measured against important trade partners, complicating the RBA’s assessment of interest rates.