This Month
Oil shock could put RBA in a bind on rate cuts
Amid rising global tensions and higher oil prices, the Reserve Bank faces a delicate balancing act as it weighs interest rate cuts against creeping inflation.
Trump’s capital controls are a ticking financial time bomb
The damage from Donald Trump’s big beautiful bill won’t stop at home. For bond investors, this means revisiting the notion that Treasuries are a free lunch.
RBA, Fed in no rush to cut interest rates, economists warn
Traders are betting big on US reductions despite the Federal Reserve hinting at higher inflation ahead. A solid jobs report has cast doubt in Australia.
As chaos reigns in the US, Porcelli warns of creaking labour market
Tom Porcelli built up a loyal following as RBC’s chief economist. He’s returned to Australia with a $US1.4 trillion manager and a bleak outlook for America.
How America’s debt ‘ticking time bomb’ could curb the RBA
Investors are demanding higher returns for government debt globally, at levels not see since the GFC. Strategists warn this could result in less aggressive rate cuts in Australia.
Traders reel in bets on US interest rate cuts, bonds sold off
Yields lifted across maturities by as much as 10 basis points, led by shorter-dated tenors more sensitive to US Federal Reserve monetary policy changes.
May
Jamie Dimon says crack in the US bond market is ‘going to happen’
“I just don’t know if it’s going to be a crisis in six months or six years,” the JPMorgan Chase chief executive officer said.
$A emerges as unlikely Trump turmoil safe haven
It isn’t just sentiment, with the Australian dollar’s share of global central bank currency reserves more than doubling, mostly over recent months.
Investors shrug at Victorian debt bomb in search for new safe haven
For all the talk about the age of market vigilantism and deteriorating public balance sheets, there’s no lack of interest in Australian state government bonds.
Fed well positioned to wait for clarity on outlook, minutes say
Policymakers judged the risks of both higher unemployment and inflation had risen since their March meeting, primarily due to the potential impact of tariffs.
Former Goldman economist splits from market, predicts big rate cuts
Now at Yarra Capital, Tim Toohey says the RBA will slash interest rates more aggressively than expected. Other economists say there’s little chance of that.
The bond market’s dire mortgage warning is at odds with the RBA
If Australians could fix their mortgages “US style” for 30 years as some have suggested they should, we would be staring at decade-high home loan rates.
Traders bet on July rate cut and more to follow
Bond traders are pricing in a good chance the RBA will deliver more rate relief at its next policy meeting in July followed by two more by year-end. Not everyone agrees.
RBA’s Bullock shocks market with ‘jumbo’ rate talk
Bond yields and the Australian dollar dropped as traders ramped up rate cut bets after Michele Bullock surprised with a more dovish tone on interest rates.
RBA could throw a curveball. Here are its 3 options
Markets and economists are expecting a second rate cut from the Reserve Bank this year, but there is always the chance of a surprise.
Time to jump back into commercial property before you miss out
The real estate sector may have turned a corner, but there are still opportunities to make good returns from distressed pricing if you know where to look.
White House chides Moody’s downgrade to US credit rating
The White House has assailed a decision by Moody’s to lower the US credit rating, casting it as a political decision.
Market sticks with rate cut next week despite job surge
Investors temper their RBA bets after employment data smashes expectations, but they still see a strong chance of a move lower on May 20
Rate cuts still on the way after US-China tariff pause
Traders now expect ‘just’ three rate cuts in Australia after the US-China trade deal, but investors are still worried about the health of the global economy.
Why the RBA is set to break away from the Fed and cut rates
Australia can act more swiftly than the US, which typically sets the tone for global monetary policy.
Three rate cuts coming but investor fear Fed’s next move
The Fed kept rates at 4.3 per cent; traders are still betting on a July rate cut, but pundits warn inflation and slowing growth could stop it from doing anything.
Hopes of Asian trade deal send $A to five-month high
A surge in currencies across Asia has pushed the currency above US65¢ amid hopes the White House is on the brink of announcing a deal in the region.
Expecting cheap Chinese goods to flood Australia? You may be shocked
Barrenjoey’s Andrew Lilley says rerouted goods from Donald Trump’s trade war will lift prices and force the Reserve Bank to be wary about rapid rate cuts.
Not invested in bonds? Here’s why you should be in this climate
Even if Trump walks back much of his tariff agenda, a 10 per cent global levy and 60 per cent on China would still hit the US economy. For investors, that means it’s time to play defence.
April
Bond market too optimistic about rapid rate cuts, investors warn
Benign inflation data has boosted bets of a rate cut next month, but fund managers caution against the aggressive easing path implied by markets.