The country’s financial markets have a pretty firm view about where interest rates will go – down to 3.1 per cent by the end of the year, where they will remain for at least six months. That’s three quarter-point rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia. One economist isn’t buying it.

Tim Toohey was the local chief economist at Goldman Sachs for more than a decade. Now at major money manager Yarra Capital, Toohey said he expected five quarter-point rate cuts, to 2.6 per cent, by August next year.