NewsBite

Cecile Lefort

Yesterday

ASX resets peak, BHP up 2pc; Temple & Webster shares hit record

Shares rise; Temple & Webster sets new record; gold tipped to top $US3,500; Qantas downgraded; Sigma rallies, CBA resets record; Toys”R”Us chief exits.

  • Updated

RBA’s radio silence is a telling sign for next week

There’s a lot of money riding on the central bank’s rate decision. While the market and most economists are all but convinced, it’s still a line ball decision.

This Month

Almond orchards owned by ASX-listed Select Harvest.

The Australian farmers set to benefit from Trump’s trade war

Australian almonds, wine and beef could be among biggest gainers from US tariffs as countries turn to cheaper markets. The weak Australian dollar also helps.

  • Updated
Richard Quin at Bentham likes investing in state government bonds because of their juicy returns.

There’s a reason why investors are flocking to fund Australian states

State governments grappling with credit downgrades have no choice but to pay bond investors more money to fund their ambitious election promises.

  • Updated
Banks will restrict their funding to prime commercial property in the coming years.

Investors storm bond sale ahead of possible RBA rate cut

More than 100 big investors piled into the new $15 billion 2036 Treasury bonds which received more than $84 billion in bids.

  • Updated
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Jo Masters at Barrenjoey says Trump tariffs are heightening uncertainty.

These five economists make a bold prediction on next rate cut

Analysts at Barrenjoey, Deloitte, KPMG, Judo Bank and Oxford Economics are tipping that the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold on February 18.

  • Updated
Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC.

Meet the most accurate economic forecaster of 2024

The Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate, according to Paul Bloxham, but don’t count on a big drop in borrowing costs as this cycle will be a short one.

  • Updated
Paul Bloxham, pictured in Sydney on Monday, loves talking about the economy. Growing up in Perth, he used to be a theatre kid.

Top forecaster Paul Bloxham says trade war changes the RBA path

HSBC’s chief economist says the RBA will only cut twice in 2025, beginning this month, and once in 2026.

January

Local shares are set to open higher.

ASX posts biggest monthly gain since July; Magellan extends sell off

ASX briefly notches record; gold miners rally; Magellan sell-off continues. PointsBet turnover plummets; Netwealth CFO exits; Origin drops LNG forecasts.

  • Updated
Jerome Powell of the US Federal Reserve is hopeful that inflation will slow further this year.

US Fed cools rate cut talk as prospects of RBA easing balloon

If Michele Bullock holds the cash rate steady on February 18, it will represent the most counter-consensus decision since that of Glenn Stevens in April 2015.

Local shares are set to open higher, as Wall Street recovered from the DeepSeek shock.

ASX misses record high; Citi, UBS forecast Feb rate cut; Star up 13pc

ASX closer higher, misses record; banks clash on Feb rate cut forecasts, CPI overshoots expectations; Boss Energy soars; Star offloads Sydney sites.

  • Updated
2/163 North Road sold at auction for $1.66 million in Eastwood, Saturday 16th of November 2024.

Major banks close to consensus on February interest rate cut call

Traders imply an 80 per cent chance of an interest rate cut next month to 4.1 per cent though the Reserve Bank could opt to wait for more data.

A US tech sell-off could weight on the ASX on Tuesday when investors return from the long weekend.

Tech jitters to hit ASX after China offers up AI rival

Australian shares are poised for a cautious start as investors worry about China’s AI progress, the Federal Reserve meeting and key local inflation data.

Kris Bernie at Kapstream says Donald Trump is playing the negotiation game.

Why these investors aren’t worried about Trump tariffs yet

Fund managers are hopeful the new US president recognises that tariffs are more effective as a threat than being acted on.

Howard Marks at Oaktree.

Four reasons investors should be very nervous in 2025

Alarm bells are ringing for fund managers and economists about the mounting threat of asset bubbles, which may trigger chaos in financial markets.

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Tim Toohey at Yarra is tipping an interest rate cut as soon as next month.

Why Tim Toohey is switching to cash

Tim Toohey from Yarra Capital says fewer RBA board meetings will mean less policy agility to react to monetary turning points.

  • Updated
Bond markets are largely ignoring December’s robust jobs report.

Bond markets stick with early rate cut after jobs blowout

While bond investors modestly tempered RBA rate cut bets after jobs data smashed expectations, they have still priced in a strong chance for a move in February.

  • Updated
The spike in bond yields is unlikely to keep RBA governor Michele Bullock from finally cutting interest rates this year.

Bond turmoil won’t derail RBA’s rate cut plan

Despite bond yields spiking around the world, analysts say the Reserve Bank is still on track to cut interest rates this year.

Australian beef sales to the US surged last year.

Why 2025 could be a bumper year for these Australian farmers

The agriculture sector may be in for a stellar 2025 but much still depends on the weather, Trump’s tariffs, and the war in Ukraine.

Trailers at the Port of Baltimore in the United States. The Australian dollar has fallen below a key threshold when measured against important trade partners.

ASX to drop as markets fret currency slump will put off rate cut

The Australian dollar has fallen below a crucial threshold when measured against important trade partners, complicating the RBA’s assessment of interest rates.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/by/cecile-lefort-p4ywcg