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Cecile Lefort

Today

Consumer-facing stocks are expected to weather global trade turmoil, says Morgan Stanley.

ASX to drop as Morgan Stanley slashes price forecast

The ASX is set to drop on Tuesday with Morgan Stanley warning that global tensions will weigh on earnings but Wesfarmers, Coles and Amcor will outperform.

This Month

Warren Hogan has long argued against a rate cut. He has now changed his mind.

Why the RBA won’t cut interest rates in May: economists

Judo Bank’s Warren Hogan is the latest to tip a rate cut in May because of Trump’s hefty tariffs on China, Australia’s top trading partner. But some still say rates will stay on hold.

The Australian dollar is poised to fall below US59¢, says CBA.

Rebound or mirage? Aussie dollar faces global storm

The escalating US-China trade war and concerns about a global recession will weigh on the Australian dollar and could push it back below US59¢.

Tech stocks have become attractive.

Fundies say the ASX is too expensive (but they’re buying some stocks)

Investors are snapping up technology shares such as WiseTech and others in energy and healthcare, but remain cautious on expensive banks such as CBA.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visits Rio Tinto’s Dampier Port in WA on Friday.

China hits back at US with 125pc tariffs

Beijing escalated the trade war with the United States by again raising tariffs and accusing the Trump administration of “unilateral bullying and coercion”.

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The gold price is soaring as uncertainty reigns.

Bond markets left reeling as epic week scars traders

The wild swings across bond markets this week were reminiscent of the biggest crises in modern history. Battered traders are now moving to more reliable havens.

Donald Trump stunned investors with a reversal in his trade policies.

Calm descends on bond markets, but tariff war will push yields higher

Bond yields dropped after Trump stunned the market by pausing most of his reciprocal tariffs, but analysts warn that US Treasuries face higher borrowing costs still.

Pundits say there are some circuit breakers that could help calm the market turmoil.

Five circuit breaks that can stop the market turmoil

Trade negotiations, central bank action and government stimulus are among the options being discussed by economists and strategists that would restore calm to financial markets.

A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Anxiety about the inflationary impact of tariffs are threatening to spike bond rates.

Bond rout shakes investors as world’s safe haven loses its appeal

The turmoil in US government bonds overshadowed deep losses on the sharemarket, as traders were left wondering if this was “the end of exorbitant privilege”.

Chinese President Xi Jinping.

$A tipped to keep tumbling as superpowers ‘collide’

The Australian dollar hit a fresh five-year low below US60¢ and traders ramped up bets the RBA will slash the cash rate next month as fears of a global recession grow.

Trade tariffs typically push up inflation. But markets are expecting rates to be cut as global growth slows.

Traders eye up to five RBA rate cuts amid market turmoil

The Aussie tumbled below US60¢, its lowest level since early in the COVID-19 pandemic, as the bond market ramped up expectations of bigger interest rate moves.

Most economists believe the Reserve Bank will cut rates next month.

Fast and deep RBA rate relief on the way, say economists

Tariffs will force central banks to ease policy further than expected just a week ago, The Australian Financial Review’s quarterly economist survey has found.

Michele Bullock on Tuesday.

Traders temper rate cut bets for May after RBA holds its nerve

The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate on hold at 4.1 per cent, but remains “cautious about the outlook” amid an escalating trade war.

March

Defence stocks are on a tear.

As defence stocks rocket fund managers rethink ethics

Amid a global ramp-up in security spending bolstered by Donald Trump, fear of missing out is prompting some of the biggest fundies to reconsider war shares.

Michele Bullock, governor, Reserve Bank of Australia, is in no rush to cut interest rates again.

Traders temper bets on RBA rate cuts after pre-election budget

Bond investors are concerned about Australia’s spending plans as the government’s financing arm unveiled the biggest annual funding program outside the pandemic.

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Cyclone Alfred caused massive damage on the Gold Coast

Super funds pile into disaster bonds as cyclones, floods rage

Catastrophe bond portfolios are paying juicy returns to protect against disaster risks, prompting big super funds and wealthy Australians to invest.

Deana Mitchell Portfolio Manager, Australian Ethical Investment.

Here are four ASX stocks that are tipped to go on a tear

Deana Mitchell at Australian Ethical is not worried about US President Donald Trump’s frantic policies and is instead busily deploying cash into the market.

The Australian sharemarket lost ground on Friday, dragged down by banks, consumer stocks and a slump in property listings business REA Group.

ASX to slip before budget, US tariffs jitters

Australian shares are set to defy a small rebound on Wall Street, as investors are wary of the national accounts and their implications for the RBA’s cash rate.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell  highlighted “unusually elevated” uncertainty.

Investors cheer as traders dial up Fed rate cut bets

Equities rallied around the world as bond markets priced in the possibility of two rate cuts from US Federal Reserve this year and in Australia.

Australia’s biggest asset managers have very different approaches to the long market sell-off.

Here’s how our biggest investors are trading the deep market sell-off

From resources to European stocks and Asian tech, fund managers see plenty of opportunities – and risks – amid a lengthy slump on the ASX and Wall Street.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/by/cecile-lefort-p4ywcg