This Month
Economists feel the burn of the RBA rate cut that wasn’t
Economics teams at some of the country’s most prominent financial institutions found themselves wrong-footed on Tuesday when the central bank decided to hold rates.
Markets widely expect an RBA rate cut, except these 5 economists
Traders and economists broadly agree that the central bank will deliver a third reduction for the year. Some want it to wait for the outlook to become clearer.
Several rate cuts on the way after RBA meets this week
Economists have joined the market in tipping another rate cut on Tuesday, as the latest quarterly survey reveals that borrowing costs have much more to fall this year.
April
Fast and deep RBA rate relief on the way, say economists
Tariffs will force central banks to ease policy further than expected just a week ago, The Australian Financial Review’s quarterly economist survey has found.
February
Meet the most accurate economic forecaster of 2024
The Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate, according to Paul Bloxham, but don’t count on a big drop in borrowing costs as this cycle will be a short one.
Top forecaster Paul Bloxham says trade war changes the RBA path
HSBC’s chief economist says the RBA will only cut twice in 2025, beginning this month, and once in 2026.
January
Big business is sweating on a quick rate cut call
Even one would provide a boost for beaten up consumers – banks will have to pass it straight to customers no questions asked given the political environment.
Reserve Bank rate cut hopes skirt federal election decider
Stubborn inflation, a tight jobs market and weak productivity thwarted interest rate relief in 2024. The Financial Review’s economist survey predicts that will change in May.
October 2024
RBA ‘inconsistencies’ detract from Bullock’s winning year
The RBA came uncomfortably close to repeating its mistake of making promises about the cash rate it cannot keep, some economists argue.
RBA rate relief to arrive before federal election, say economists
The RBA will start cutting rates in February, according to the median forecaster in the Financial Review’s quarterly survey of economists, handing federal Labor an economic win.
July 2024
Migration cut no ‘silver bullet’ to Australia’s inflation problem
While economists said a tightening in immigration rules should relieve rent prices and take pressure off the labour market, it may not be enough to curb inflation.
Inflation has no chance of hitting Chalmers’ forecasts: survey
Higher-than-expected inflation will take at least 12 months to fall anywhere near the Reserve Bank’s target, casting doubt on Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ more optimistic forecast.
April 2024
What Bloxham, Masters and Ong say will be in the budget
Economists surveyed by Financial Review expect government spending in the federal budget to be aimed at struggling families, but it will be small and not inflationary.
China to miss lofty economic growth target without major stimulus
The Australian Financial Review’s survey of economists suggests growth as low as 4.2 per cent. But a reliance on iron ore will limit its effect on Australia.
Inflation set to ease, but it will be bumpy: survey
While higher prices are forecast to ease, economists warn that should inflation reignite, the RBA will stand pat on rate cuts at least for this year.
RBA will struggle to cut rates this year: survey
The RBA is expected to be the last major central bank to start cutting interest rates and economists predict the cash rate will remain on hold at least until November.
February 2024
Here’s what the top economic forecaster predicts for 2024
Warren Hogan has been named the AFR’s best economic forecaster for 2023, after being the only economist out of 29 to accurately predict five rate rises last year.
Sticky inflation will haunt the RBA, say top forecasters
Persistently high services inflation may derail market expectations of an interest rate cut as early as May, according to the best economist forecasts for 2024.
January 2024
Economists fear unintended consequences of the RBA overhaul
In The Australian Financial Review’s quarterly survey economists warn making the central bank more transparent could lead to slip-ups and muddle policy signals.
Iron ore rally bolsters $A prospects in 2024
Economists predict the Australian dollar will rise to US70¢ by the end of the year, buoyed by US rate cuts and an unexpectedly strong iron ore price.