The Reserve Bank of Australia will begin cutting interest rates in February, handing Labor a much-needed economic win before the federal election if economists are right about the direction of the central bank’s policy path.

But more than a third of the 38 economists surveyed by The Australian Financial Review warn it could be later than February, and that borrowers’ hopes of rate relief may be hobbled by a robust labour market, population growth, and the record-breaking sharemarket run.