How did they get it so wrong? The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold rates steady wrong-footed not only traders, who were all but certain the central bank would cut, but economists at most of the country’s biggest financial institutions, from ANZ to the Wall Street investment giants.

On Monday, The Australian Financial Review’s quarterly survey of economists was emphatic – 32 of the 36 people polled said the RBA was about to deliver the third cut of the year, taking the official cash rate to 3.6 per cent. It was the monthly inflation data a fortnight ago that had sealed the deal, they said, and pressure was off the bank to keep rates unchanged.